WI-SEN (Marquette): Johnson +1

[Calthrina950]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

Eh, I don't necessarily believe that he's been able to cultivate that brand. He's been underwater in approvals for quite a while now and has been particularly divisive on many issues. Just because he was able to win by a few points 6 years ago does not make him some titanium candidate, and if anything, he is being portrayed as far right, which is accurate. I don't necessarily buy that just because Johnson started running a few ads about him on crime that all of a sudden he truly lost 8% support.

People need to remember that Barnes is also the Lt. Gov under a moderately liberal administration. He's not some far left socialist that just came out of nowhere.

Obviously, he's not, and I noted above that Wisconsin is a sharply polarized state where staunchly conservative Republicans and staunchly progressive Democrats coexist, and currently hold (and have held in the past) elective office. That is why this race is going to be close. Moreover, you are correct when you say that Johnson has been divisive, but the stances he's taken are precisely the ones that have helped him to maintain his political standing in this state.

Maybe before, but given Wisconsins make-up and the fact that you also need Independents, Johnsons positions on abortion, gay marriage, etc., are exactly the opposite of stances that would work with that group.

Johnson has held those positions for years, and they didn't prevent him from winning in 2010 or 2016. As I see it, Wisconsin has become more of a base turnout state, thanks to the influence of figures such as Walker and Trump, and Johnson is applying his focus to the kinds of issues that will turn the Republican base on Election Day. Now, I am not saying that he is guaranteed to win reelection. Barnes clearly does have a chance. But when you couple the factors I've discussed, with how polls have underestimated Democrats in Wisconsin before, it would be foolish to say that this is an automatic Democratic pickup.

Why do people constantly ignore Wisconsin in 2018? Yes, polling was off in 2020 and 2016 when Trump was not on the ballot, was very spot in when he wasn't in 2018. So we can't just say that polling is 100% underestimating Rs here. Could be, but we don't know. Also, I don't really believe that people knew what Johnsons views were in those elections - certainly not as much now. Johnson was pretty under the radar in the past, especially pre-social media. IMO that's completely changed now, and it's more apparent what his views are. Just look at his favorables have dropped over the years even compared to 2016.

I think we're not entirely disagreeing here. At the end of the day, this a completely tossup race IMO. It's a Trump/Biden state and a turnout state like you said.

I don't think we are entirely at odds here, either. I've been trying to lay out the case as to why a Johnson reelection, even with the circumstances created by Dobbs, could occur, and the reasons belying it. Polarization certainly will have an effect on the outcome here, and I suspect that Johnson will do worse in the WOW Counties than he did in 2016. We will also probably see a pro-Democratic shift in Milwaukee and Madison. However, rural Wisconsin will swing towards Johnson, and he will also gain in Kenosha and Racine Counties, where Trump was helped in 2020 by the riots. That will be enough for him to win reelection, especially since I don't think there will be a complete collapse for him in WOW compared to Trump.