WI-SEN (Marquette): Johnson +1

[kwabbit]

The youth crosstables are just wrong.  They are bad in both the senate and governor parts of the poll.  I say just junk it entirely.

yeah like what is the n for this? like n=30? to get Johnson +30 lol

n = 53. Obviously just a product of sampling, but in working class White states like Wisconsin, the voting patterns by age are flatter. The older voters still have ancestral loyalty to the Democratic Party, the young voters are often those who didn’t leave for better opportunities, so they skew more Republican and less educated than you’d expect.

That would explain 18-29s being a few points more conservative than in other states, but it has Johnson winning them by 30 points lmao

Oh yeah it’s not accurate, but a sample of 53 is a sample of 53 and a pollster will get odd results for small subgroups if they’re not manipulating the sample.

[Progressive Pessimist]

But I was told Rojo was a #strong candidate because reasons!

It's kind of funny to see you, of all people, with a positive spin on this poll. I think this is incredibly disappointing. Not because I ever believed that Barnes was up 7 in their previous poll but because it may very well confirm that Barnes never had much of a path to winning, in spite of polling ahead fairly consistently and surprisingly since winning the primary.

It's Wisconsin teasing us once again. This is enough for me to want to move the race back to lean R, shake my fist at Kind not running here instead, and suggest that the powers that be within the Democratic Party go back to being more precise and less ambitious by focusing more on Georgia and Nevada instead. More than 51 Senate seats is a pipe-dream. Let's be glad we can hold the chamber at all.

[wbrocks67]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

[MillennialModerate]

Wisconsin is the least believable Dem win for me.

It BARELY went Dem in 20. It’s not going Dem this year

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wisconsin is the least believable Dem win for me.

It BARELY went Dem in 20. It’s not going Dem this year

ELDERLY VOTERS: "Yes, RoJo wants to take away my Social Security and Medicare, and has said so, and we are like half his base, but we need to vote for him to confirm polling bias for Atlas users"

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Poll fatigue and Democrats continuing to fall after higher expectations (2014, 2016, and 2020).

[Yoda]

I kept checking my phone today and seeing all the new polls showing solid leads for Fetterman, Warnock and Shapiro, and I thought to myself, "Man, all I need now is to see a quality pollster show a decent lead for Barnes and I will be one happy camper!"

Like 5 minutes later this sh**t came out lol.

[Yoda]

The youth crosstables are just wrong.  They are bad in both the senate and governor parts of the poll.  I say just junk it entirely.

Yeh, I was just looking at those and was gonna say the same thing. Wtf are they polling, the entire membership of UW College Republicans? I see no way in hell how that age group is remotely accurate.

[citizenZ]

Johnson has been hammering Barnes hard on the crime issue and it seems to be working.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Johnson has been hammering Barnes hard on the crime issue and it seems to be working.

Barnes has been hammering Johnson hard on the social security issue and it seems to be working (if the environment is as bad as you say Johnson should be up by at least 5)

[Blair]

A hypothetical- would left leaning posters rather lose this race after leading in every poll or lose after polls show a very narrow race?

[Sir Mohamed]

I guess what's causing some to freak out is a trendline. We need to see more polls as the election nears. This was never decided by more than a few points, and tossup races typically show both candidates in the lead by small margins over time.

Remains a tossup, imho, though if I had to make a bet, I'd still say Johnson wins by 2. Hope to be wrong though.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

[Calthrina950]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

No it didn't Tammy Baldwin was supposed to lose in 2012 to Tammy  Thompson and she won and she won in 2o18, Scott Walker was favored in 2018 this is the same Barnes that ran with Evers that beat Kleefisch and Walker

That's why Paul Ryan was picked he was supposed to win WI this is the same Biden that helped D's win in 2008/12 as he is now Rs think Obama won 2008/12 by himself, no he didn't Biden campaign for D's his butt off

Yeah OH polls were off when Brown won in 2006/12/18

The Rs want to say that polls are wrong because they were supposed to win 245RH and 54RS

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

Yes Johnson is not "establishment", he might appear too right but the Wisconsin Dems picked Mandela Barnes a Bernie Bro and diminished that opportunity. Furthermore Wisconsin is a working class state, it is a lot more like Iowa than it is Minnesota. Minneapolis is #16 largest metro in the country, Milwuakee is only #40. There is a reason this isn't one of the signature races up this year (AZ,NV,GA,PA).

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

No it didn't Tammy Baldwin was supposed to lose in 2012 to Tammy  Thompson and she won and she won in 2o18, Scott Walker was favored in 2018 this is the same Barnes that ran with Evers that beat Kleefisch and Walker

That's why Paul Ryan was picked he was supposed to win WI this is the same Biden that helped D's win in 2008/12 as he is now Rs think Obama won 2008/12 by himself, n9 he didn't Biden campaign for D's his butt off

Yeah OH polls were off when Brown won in 2006/12/18

The Rs want to say that polls are wrong because they were supposed to win 245RH and 54RS

2012 Dems still had Obama's WWC support, after 2016 that group is now pretty Republican. 2018 Republicans didn't even seriously contest the senate race, but Evers did underperform the polling slightly.

[Calthrina950]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

Yes Johnson is not "establishment", he might appear too right but the Wisconsin Dems picked Mandela Barnes a Bernie Bro and diminished that opportunity. Furthermore Wisconsin is a working class state, it is a lot more like Iowa than it is Minnesota. Minneapolis is #16 largest metro in the country, Milwuakee is only #40. There is a reason this isn't one of the signature races up this year (AZ,NV,GA,PA).

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

No it didn't Tammy Baldwin was supposed to lose in 2012 to Tammy  Thompson and she won and she won in 2o18, Scott Walker was favored in 2018 this is the same Barnes that ran with Evers that beat Kleefisch and Walker

That's why Paul Ryan was picked he was supposed to win WI this is the same Biden that helped D's win in 2008/12 as he is now Rs think Obama won 2008/12 by himself, n9 he didn't Biden campaign for D's his butt off

Yeah OH polls were off when Brown won in 2006/12/18

The Rs want to say that polls are wrong because they were supposed to win 245RH and 54RS

2012 Dems still had Obama's WWC support, after 2016 that group is now pretty Republican. 2018 Republicans didn't even seriously contest the senate race, but Evers did underperform the polling slightly.

Wisconsin is a very polarized state. After all, Johnson's colleague (whom he despises) is Tammy Baldwin, who is one of the most liberal Democrats in the Senate. But it is a state that is now more Republican than the national average, and the trends for Democrats outside of Milwaukee, Madison, and the WOW counties are absolutely ugly ones. As of right now, I suspect Johnson will get Trump 2020 numbers in the rural areas, and will probably run ahead of Trump's 2020 numbers in the WOW counties, but will not do as well in WOW as he did in 2016. But that will be enough for him to win reelection.

[Farmlands]

Wisconsin is the least believable Dem win for me.

It BARELY went Dem in 20. It’s not going Dem this year

ELDERLY VOTERS: "Yes, RoJo wants to take away my Social Security and Medicare, and has said so, and we are like half his base, but we need to vote for him to confirm polling bias for Atlas users"

This must be the new "Covid is going to turn all the retirees into a D-leaning group in 2020". Spoiler alert, even when Bush was trying to privatise Social Security, the elderly were still by far the strongest GOP voting block, in 2006.

[wbrocks67]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

Eh, I don't necessarily believe that he's been able to cultivate that brand. He's been underwater in approvals for quite a while now and has been particularly divisive on many issues. Just because he was able to win by a few points 6 years ago does not make him some titanium candidate, and if anything, he is being portrayed as far right, which is accurate. I don't necessarily buy that just because Johnson started running a few ads about him on crime that all of a sudden he truly lost 8% support.

People need to remember that Barnes is also the Lt. Gov under a moderately liberal administration. He's not some far left socialist that just came out of nowhere.

[Calthrina950]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

Eh, I don't necessarily believe that he's been able to cultivate that brand. He's been underwater in approvals for quite a while now and has been particularly divisive on many issues. Just because he was able to win by a few points 6 years ago does not make him some titanium candidate, and if anything, he is being portrayed as far right, which is accurate. I don't necessarily buy that just because Johnson started running a few ads about him on crime that all of a sudden he truly lost 8% support.

People need to remember that Barnes is also the Lt. Gov under a moderately liberal administration. He's not some far left socialist that just came out of nowhere.

Obviously, he's not, and I noted above that Wisconsin is a sharply polarized state where staunchly conservative Republicans and staunchly progressive Democrats coexist, and currently hold (and have held in the past) elective office. That is why this race is going to be close. Moreover, you are correct when you say that Johnson has been divisive, but the stances he's taken are precisely the ones that have helped him to maintain his political standing in this state.

[wbrocks67]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

Eh, I don't necessarily believe that he's been able to cultivate that brand. He's been underwater in approvals for quite a while now and has been particularly divisive on many issues. Just because he was able to win by a few points 6 years ago does not make him some titanium candidate, and if anything, he is being portrayed as far right, which is accurate. I don't necessarily buy that just because Johnson started running a few ads about him on crime that all of a sudden he truly lost 8% support.

People need to remember that Barnes is also the Lt. Gov under a moderately liberal administration. He's not some far left socialist that just came out of nowhere.

Obviously, he's not, and I noted above that Wisconsin is a sharply polarized state where staunchly conservative Republicans and staunchly progressive Democrats coexist, and currently hold (and have held in the past) elective office. That is why this race is going to be close. Moreover, you are correct when you say that Johnson has been divisive, but the stances he's taken are precisely the ones that have helped him to maintain his political standing in this state.

Maybe before, but given Wisconsins make-up and the fact that you also need Independents, Johnsons positions on abortion, gay marriage, etc., are exactly the opposite of stances that would work with that group.

[Calthrina950]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

Eh, I don't necessarily believe that he's been able to cultivate that brand. He's been underwater in approvals for quite a while now and has been particularly divisive on many issues. Just because he was able to win by a few points 6 years ago does not make him some titanium candidate, and if anything, he is being portrayed as far right, which is accurate. I don't necessarily buy that just because Johnson started running a few ads about him on crime that all of a sudden he truly lost 8% support.

People need to remember that Barnes is also the Lt. Gov under a moderately liberal administration. He's not some far left socialist that just came out of nowhere.

Obviously, he's not, and I noted above that Wisconsin is a sharply polarized state where staunchly conservative Republicans and staunchly progressive Democrats coexist, and currently hold (and have held in the past) elective office. That is why this race is going to be close. Moreover, you are correct when you say that Johnson has been divisive, but the stances he's taken are precisely the ones that have helped him to maintain his political standing in this state.

Maybe before, but given Wisconsins make-up and the fact that you also need Independents, Johnsons positions on abortion, gay marriage, etc., are exactly the opposite of stances that would work with that group.

Johnson has held those positions for years, and they didn't prevent him from winning in 2010 or 2016. As I see it, Wisconsin has become more of a base turnout state, thanks to the influence of figures such as Walker and Trump, and Johnson is applying his focus to the kinds of issues that will turn the Republican base on Election Day. Now, I am not saying that he is guaranteed to win reelection. Barnes clearly does have a chance. But when you couple the factors I've discussed, with how polls have underestimated Democrats in Wisconsin before, it would be foolish to say that this is an automatic Democratic pickup.

[wbrocks67]

I quite literally do not understand people acting as if Barnes has already lost when the two are basically tied in this poll.

Because Wisconsin polls overestimate Dems routinely and is the 2nd worst in the country (first prize goes to Ohio)? Especially Marquette. Barnes needs to have a significant lead in the polling to be favored against the guy who outperformed by 6.1% last time. A neck and neck result points to a Johnson win.

And in a way, it's not hard for me to see why Johnson would win reelection. He's managed to cultivate a brand as a "independent fighter" who stands up to the Washington elites and fights for the values of Wisconsinites. He's also portrayed Barnes as being too far left for the state and has capitalized on the crime issue, which came to the fore in Kenosha back in 2020 and almost handed Trump the state. And as has been noted previously, Johnson has outperformed the polls and has been underestimated before.

Eh, I don't necessarily believe that he's been able to cultivate that brand. He's been underwater in approvals for quite a while now and has been particularly divisive on many issues. Just because he was able to win by a few points 6 years ago does not make him some titanium candidate, and if anything, he is being portrayed as far right, which is accurate. I don't necessarily buy that just because Johnson started running a few ads about him on crime that all of a sudden he truly lost 8% support.

People need to remember that Barnes is also the Lt. Gov under a moderately liberal administration. He's not some far left socialist that just came out of nowhere.

Obviously, he's not, and I noted above that Wisconsin is a sharply polarized state where staunchly conservative Republicans and staunchly progressive Democrats coexist, and currently hold (and have held in the past) elective office. That is why this race is going to be close. Moreover, you are correct when you say that Johnson has been divisive, but the stances he's taken are precisely the ones that have helped him to maintain his political standing in this state.

Maybe before, but given Wisconsins make-up and the fact that you also need Independents, Johnsons positions on abortion, gay marriage, etc., are exactly the opposite of stances that would work with that group.

Johnson has held those positions for years, and they didn't prevent him from winning in 2010 or 2016. As I see it, Wisconsin has become more of a base turnout state, thanks to the influence of figures such as Walker and Trump, and Johnson is applying his focus to the kinds of issues that will turn the Republican base on Election Day. Now, I am not saying that he is guaranteed to win reelection. Barnes clearly does have a chance. But when you couple the factors I've discussed, with how polls have underestimated Democrats in Wisconsin before, it would be foolish to say that this is an automatic Democratic pickup.

Why do people constantly ignore Wisconsin in 2018? Yes, polling was off in 2020 and 2016 when Trump was not on the ballot, was very spot in when he wasn't in 2018. So we can't just say that polling is 100% underestimating Rs here. Could be, but we don't know. Also, I don't really believe that people knew what Johnsons views were in those elections - certainly not as much now. Johnson was pretty under the radar in the past, especially pre-social media. IMO that's completely changed now, and it's more apparent what his views are. Just look at his favorables have dropped over the years even compared to 2016.

I think we're not entirely disagreeing here. At the end of the day, this a completely tossup race IMO. It's a Trump/Biden state and a turnout state like you said.

[MT Treasurer]

Why are people seriously arguing with wbrocks67? Like, what do you think is going to be accomplished here? Do you truly believe his mind can be changed?

You’re wasting your time. Let people believe what they want to believe and move on.

[wbrocks67]

Why are people seriously arguing with wbrocks67? Like, what do you think is going to be accomplished here? Do you seriously think his mind can be changed?

I'm literally saying this is a tossup race. Pretty sure anyone based in reality would agree with that.

Also this is a discussion forum, so if you don't want to discuss, then don't come here.