PA-SEN (CBS/YouGov): Fetterman +5

[Brittain33]

Fetterman: 52%
Oz: 47%

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pennsylvania-midterm-election-opinion-poll-economy-abortion-2022-09-14/

While this is a "good" poll for Oz, relatively, the breakdowns on why people are voting for him and whether they like their candidate are abysmal.

[Person Man]

Fetterman is well above 50 now.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Did they poll Mastriano/Shapiro?

[Gass3268]

Did they poll Mastriano/Shapiro?

Shapiro +11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nice poll Mastriano won't win due to fact he will DECERTIFY Biden with R State legislature

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Did they poll Mastriano/Shapiro?

Shapiro +11

Wow......

[wbrocks67]

These numbers are just atrocious for Oz across the board. He's quite literally only at 47% even because this is a Biden midterm and the LV model is slightly GOP

When they talk about politics, they say what they…
Fetterman: 57% really believe, 43% think voters want to hear
Oz: 29% really believe, 71% think voters want to hear

Has Oz been in PA long enough to understand the issues? 33% yes, 67% no

Do they have the right experience? 56% Fetterman does, 24% Oz does

How they handle themselves personally?
Fetterman: 50% like, 50% dislike
Oz: 36% like, 64% dislike

Reason for vote choice?
Fetterman: 56% I like him, 24% to oppose Oz, 20% he’s the nominee
Oz: 15% I like him, 54% to oppose Fetterman, 31% he’s the nominee

Is Fetterman healthy enough to serve? 59% yes, 41% no

Enthusiasm about voting for?
Fetterman: 63% very enthusiastic
Oz: 36% very enthusiastic

[MillennialModerate]

You have to assume polls are slanted to the Dems.. so a 5 point margin when everything seems to be going right for Dems is alarming. I’ll get mauled for this but I’m inclined to say one more poll like this and this is a Tilt R tossup

[GeorgiaModerate]

You have to assume polls are slanted to the Dems.. so a 5 point margin when everything seems to be going right for Dems is alarming. I’ll get mauled for this but I’m inclined to say one more poll like this and this is a Tilt R tossup

Consider yourself mauled.

[Sir Mohamed]

These numbers are just atrocious for Oz across the board. He's quite literally only at 47% even because this is a Biden midterm and the LV model is slightly GOP

When they talk about politics, they say what they…
Fetterman: 57% really believe, 43% think voters want to hear
Oz: 29% really believe, 71% think voters want to hear

Has Oz been in PA long enough to understand the issues? 33% yes, 67% no

Do they have the right experience? 56% Fetterman does, 24% Oz does

How they handle themselves personally?
Fetterman: 50% like, 50% dislike
Oz: 36% like, 64% dislike

Reason for vote choice?
Fetterman: 56% I like him, 24% to oppose Oz, 20% he’s the nominee
Oz: 15% I like him, 54% to oppose Fetterman, 31% he’s the nominee

Is Fetterman healthy enough to serve? 59% yes, 41% no

Enthusiasm about voting for?
Fetterman: 63% very enthusiastic
Oz: 36% very enthusiastic

That's very encouraging and just confirms what an atrocious candidate Oz is. Fetterman's campaign to paint him as "coastal elitist" really stuck and Oz greatly stuggles to find a winning message. Tbh, I think he even struggles to find a message beyond "Biden bad" at all. Not the greatest approach to win a swing state unless national environment is strongly in your favor.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I could definitely see this being around the final margin. Love to get a poll with hardly any undecideds for once.

[S019]

Much more believable than most polls we’ve gotten. Though Oz is likely going to need to flip some voters leaning to Fetterman if he wants to win, the good news for him is that the election is 2 months away, but this remains Tilt/Lean D imo.

[wbrocks67]

Much more believable than most polls we’ve gotten. Though Oz is likely going to need to flip some voters leaning to Fetterman if he wants to win, the good news for him is that the election is 2 months away, but this remains Tilt/Lean D imo.

Early voting in PA starts in 5 days.

[kwabbit]

Much more believable than most polls we’ve gotten. Though Oz is likely going to need to flip some voters leaning to Fetterman if he wants to win, the good news for him is that the election is 2 months away, but this remains Tilt/Lean D imo.

Early voting in PA starts in 5 days.

Generally swing voters don’t vote early so candidates can’t bank a win. In North Carolina in 2016/2020, Democrats banked huge leads in early voting only to see them evaporate on Election Day.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I could definitely see this being around the final margin. Love to get a poll with hardly any undecideds for once.

Isn't the % undecided/other actually way too low here?  There are six minor party candidates on the ballot, and 538 projects them to receive 2.3% of the vote. 

[wbrocks67]

I could definitely see this being around the final margin. Love to get a poll with hardly any undecideds for once.

Isn't the % undecided/other actually way too low here?  There are six minor party candidates on the ballot, and 538 projects them to receive 2.3% of the vote. 

I mean it comes out to 1% other, so not much different than 2% third party vote.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Still very consistent, but this time with Fetterman past 50%. I don't care if it's much closer than what the gubernatorial race looks like, Oz is only as close as he is because certain voters simply don't want a Democrat winning, yet it and his desperate tactics don't even matter if 52% of Pennsylvanians prefer Fetterman, especially if this holds up. That negative partisanship is all he has, as evident from the crosstabs. The GOP should put a quarter in their asses because they played themselves here by letting Trump affect the race so much by making Oz his preferred candidate.

[Calthrina950]

Still very consistent, but this time with Fetterman past 50%. I don't care if it's much closer than what the gubernatorial race looks like, Oz is only as close as he is because certain voters simply don't want a Democrat winning, yet it and his desperate tactics don't even matter if 52% of Pennsylvanians prefer Fetterman, especially if this holds up. That negative partisanship is all he has, as evident from the crosstabs. The GOP should put a quarter in their asses because they played themselves here by letting Trump affect the race so much by making Oz his preferred candidate.

McCormick would probably be near the point of putting this race away at this point. Oz seems to have gained some momentum in recent weeks, but it may not be enough. We are now entering the final stretch, and Pennsylvania voters have a much more negative perception of him than they do of Fetterman.

[wbrocks67]

Still very consistent, but this time with Fetterman past 50%. I don't care if it's much closer than what the gubernatorial race looks like, Oz is only as close as he is because certain voters simply don't want a Democrat winning, yet it and his desperate tactics don't even matter if 52% of Pennsylvanians prefer Fetterman, especially if this holds up. That negative partisanship is all he has, as evident from the crosstabs. The GOP should put a quarter in their asses because they played themselves here by letting Trump affect the race so much by making Oz his preferred candidate.

McCormick would probably be near the point of putting this race away at this point. Oz seems to have gained some momentum in recent weeks, but it may not be enough. We are now entering the final stretch, and Pennsylvania voters have a much more negative perception of him than they do of Fetterman.

I don't really buy this argument - McCormick likely would've done better than Oz but Fetterman is still clearly relatively popular in his own right, and McCormick has his own issues.

[Calthrina950]

Still very consistent, but this time with Fetterman past 50%. I don't care if it's much closer than what the gubernatorial race looks like, Oz is only as close as he is because certain voters simply don't want a Democrat winning, yet it and his desperate tactics don't even matter if 52% of Pennsylvanians prefer Fetterman, especially if this holds up. That negative partisanship is all he has, as evident from the crosstabs. The GOP should put a quarter in their asses because they played themselves here by letting Trump affect the race so much by making Oz his preferred candidate.

McCormick would probably be near the point of putting this race away at this point. Oz seems to have gained some momentum in recent weeks, but it may not be enough. We are now entering the final stretch, and Pennsylvania voters have a much more negative perception of him than they do of Fetterman.

I don't really buy this argument - McCormick likely would've done better than Oz but Fetterman is still clearly relatively popular in his own right, and McCormick has his own issues.

You think Fetterman would be leading McCormick? If that had been the case, which Republican would have a chance of winning in Pennsylvania? Fitzpatrick, who would be unable to win the primary?

[wbrocks67]

Still very consistent, but this time with Fetterman past 50%. I don't care if it's much closer than what the gubernatorial race looks like, Oz is only as close as he is because certain voters simply don't want a Democrat winning, yet it and his desperate tactics don't even matter if 52% of Pennsylvanians prefer Fetterman, especially if this holds up. That negative partisanship is all he has, as evident from the crosstabs. The GOP should put a quarter in their asses because they played themselves here by letting Trump affect the race so much by making Oz his preferred candidate.

McCormick would probably be near the point of putting this race away at this point. Oz seems to have gained some momentum in recent weeks, but it may not be enough. We are now entering the final stretch, and Pennsylvania voters have a much more negative perception of him than they do of Fetterman.

I don't really buy this argument - McCormick likely would've done better than Oz but Fetterman is still clearly relatively popular in his own right, and McCormick has his own issues.

You think Fetterman would be leading McCormick? If that had been the case, which Republican would have a chance of winning in Pennsylvania? Fitzpatrick, who would be unable to win the primary?

I think you misread - I think McCormick would have a chance at winning. I just disagree with this sentiment that if this were McCormick vs. Fett that the former would be winning by like 5 and "putting it away already."

[Calthrina950]

Still very consistent, but this time with Fetterman past 50%. I don't care if it's much closer than what the gubernatorial race looks like, Oz is only as close as he is because certain voters simply don't want a Democrat winning, yet it and his desperate tactics don't even matter if 52% of Pennsylvanians prefer Fetterman, especially if this holds up. That negative partisanship is all he has, as evident from the crosstabs. The GOP should put a quarter in their asses because they played themselves here by letting Trump affect the race so much by making Oz his preferred candidate.

McCormick would probably be near the point of putting this race away at this point. Oz seems to have gained some momentum in recent weeks, but it may not be enough. We are now entering the final stretch, and Pennsylvania voters have a much more negative perception of him than they do of Fetterman.

I don't really buy this argument - McCormick likely would've done better than Oz but Fetterman is still clearly relatively popular in his own right, and McCormick has his own issues.

You think Fetterman would be leading McCormick? If that had been the case, which Republican would have a chance of winning in Pennsylvania? Fitzpatrick, who would be unable to win the primary?

I think you misread - I think McCormick would have a chance at winning. I just disagree with this sentiment that if this were McCormick vs. Fett that the former would be winning by like 5 and "putting it away already."

I see. I think this would be a competitive race, but McCormack probably would have responded more effectively to Fetterman's attacks and wouldn't have the same trust issues with the Republican base.

[Yoda]

You have to assume polls are slanted to the Dems.. so a 5 point margin when everything seems to be going right for Dems is alarming. I’ll get mauled for this but I’m inclined to say one more poll like this and this is a Tilt R tossup

You're like the political version of an athlete that needs to see a psychologist b/c they beat themselves before they set food on the field/court.

[Torie]

The big unknown is how these two flawed candidates do in the debates against each other. We shall see.

[wbrocks67]

The big unknown is how these two flawed candidates do in the debates against each other. We shall see.

I'm sorry what? One candidate has a 50/50 fav here and the other has a 36/64.