NY 17 vs NY 18- Which Democrat has a better shot at holding on?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think Ryan. Rs have lots of potential with orthodox jews

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sure Rs have potential with Orthodox Jews but I'd also argue their margin inf favor of Trump was a bit unnatural, plus NY-17 was still bluer in 2020

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Maloney will benefit from having a DemSoc challenger in the primary when it comes to the Orthodox Jewish vote. He looks more reasonable by comparison, and he's by far the stronger incumbent at the moment.

That being said, I think they both win. NY is bad territory for the Republicans right now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Both are Likely D tbh (and much closer to Safe D than Lean D, although as with all my predictions; I am talking about who will actually win, not the margin*). 

*I say this b/c sometimes you get races like the NC Senate race (which I think will be much closer than folks expect, but I have it at Likely R b/c I suspect Beasley has a ceiling of ~48% whereas Tim Ryan [Lean R bordering on Tilt] is running in much a tougher state and it’s possible that Beasley loses by less than Ryan depending on how things play out with turnout/undecideds, but he still has a far better chance of actually winning than Beasley). 

[kwabbit]

Sure Rs have potential with Orthodox Jews but I'd also argue their margin inf favor of Trump was a bit unnatural, plus NY-17 was still bluer in 2020

Trump got essentially 100% with them in 2020.I don’t know their midterm turnout levels. If they vote en masse then their extreme population growth will make them potent in a midterm year, if other groups are not turning out as usual.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I really think any special election in an extremely white district that Biden won even by as little as a half a point is virtually solid D at this point with the current coalitions. So, Ryan got lucky. However, SPM imo is easier to attack because he is DCCC chair, has run for attorney General and has ties to state/federal politics, so he's more vulnerable to "out of touch with the district" attacks

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sure Rs have potential with Orthodox Jews but I'd also argue their margin inf favor of Trump was a bit unnatural, plus NY-17 was still bluer in 2020

Trump got essentially 100% with them in 2020.I don’t know their midterm turnout levels. If they vote en masse then their extreme population growth will make them potent in a midterm year, if other groups are not turning out as usual.

Except their extreme population growth isn’t really all that extreme? Idk where folks are getting that idea from.

[kwabbit]

Sure Rs have potential with Orthodox Jews but I'd also argue their margin inf favor of Trump was a bit unnatural, plus NY-17 was still bluer in 2020

Trump got essentially 100% with them in 2020.I don’t know their midterm turnout levels. If they vote en masse then their extreme population growth will make them potent in a midterm year, if other groups are not turning out as usual.

Except their extreme population growth isn’t really all that extreme? Idk where folks are getting that idea from.

They grow by like 60% per decade mostly off natural growth. That’s a ton, the TFR is over 6. Census estimates have not been accurate in areas with a lot of Orthodox Jews, such as Lakewood, so growth is underestimated up until a head count is taken. It’s not like it’s doubling every year, but Orthodox areas are the fastest growing localities in the country.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sure Rs have potential with Orthodox Jews but I'd also argue their margin inf favor of Trump was a bit unnatural, plus NY-17 was still bluer in 2020

Trump got essentially 100% with them in 2020.I don’t know their midterm turnout levels. If they vote en masse then their extreme population growth will make them potent in a midterm year, if other groups are not turning out as usual.

Except their extreme population growth isn’t really all that extreme? Idk where folks are getting that idea from.

They grow by like 60% per decade mostly off natural growth. That’s a ton, the TFR is over 6. Census estimates have not been accurate in areas with a lot of Orthodox Jews, such as Lakewood, so growth is underestimated up until a head count is taken. It’s not like it’s doubling every year, but Orthodox areas are the fastest growing localities in the country.

Lakewood's growth has been insane I agree with you there. However, South Brooklyn, the Spring Valley, or even Kirya Joel's growth in the 2020 census was nothing to write home about nor does it even stand out on a population change map. I do agree the population is growing faster than the district as a whole though.

Tbf though, I've had trouble finding accurate population change maps at the tract level so eprhaps if you have insight on that that would be helpful.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think both will win fairly comfortably, but Maloney has had a longer, more familiar presence in the Hudson Valley even if he is representing some new territory. Ryan is still very much a newcomer.