Republican nomination in 1940

[Plankton5165]

Why did it go to Wendell Wilkie, and not Robert Taft?

Robert Taft seems more significant. Maybe he would've been president if he was nominated, considering how close WW was to beating FDR.

[Pacific Republican]

He wasn't that close to defeating FDR.

[Plankton5165]

He wasn't that close to defeating FDR.

But he was a lot closer than Alf Landon and Herbert Hoover.

[President Johnson]

Mainly because the world was shocked after the Nazis invaded France and the fall of Paris in May 1940. Taft was a staunch isolationist and Republicans felt they couldn't win the election with him as the candidate. Willkie seemed a safer choice, including on domestic policy. I think Willkie would have been an outstanding president.

I still find it interesting how well Thomas Dewey did, although he was just a New York district attorney at the time (though he almost unseated Governor Herbert Lehman in 1938).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Mainly because the world was shocked after the Nazis invaded France and the fall of Paris in May 1940. Taft was a staunch isolationist and Republicans felt they couldn't win the election with him as the candidate. Willkie seemed a safer choice, including on domestic policy. I think Willkie would have been an outstanding president.

I still find it interesting how well Thomas Dewey did, although he was just a New York district attorney at the time (though he almost unseated Governor Herbert Lehman in 1938).

I suspect if there was a primary system at the time , Taft would have been the Republican nominee in 1940

[President Johnson]

Mainly because the world was shocked after the Nazis invaded France and the fall of Paris in May 1940. Taft was a staunch isolationist and Republicans felt they couldn't win the election with him as the candidate. Willkie seemed a safer choice, including on domestic policy. I think Willkie would have been an outstanding president.

I still find it interesting how well Thomas Dewey did, although he was just a New York district attorney at the time (though he almost unseated Governor Herbert Lehman in 1938).

I suspect if there was a primary system at the time , Taft would have been the Republican nominee in 1940

That's a fair assumption, yeah. Willkie actually contested a few primaries in 1944, when he again sought the nomination, and badly lost. He got like 3% in Wisconsin, though the Midwestern states were always more isolationist at the time (and perhaps still are).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A lot of big newspapers backed him as well.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

British intelligence operation.

[Sir Mohamed]

He wasn't that close to defeating FDR.

But he was a lot closer than Alf Landon and Herbert Hoover.

What? FDR still beat him by about 10 pts. and won 85% of the electoral vote. That's not close at all. Every post-1984 election was closer than 1940. Even than 1944.

As already said, Hitler invading France and taking France in record pace was a major factor to consider.

[Orser67]

Republicans at the time were split between a more isolationist midwestern wing led by Taft, and a more internationalist Northeastern wing of which Dewey was the chief figure (I'm not sure if it's accurate to say that Dewey "led" that wing in 1940; certainly he did by 1948). If you look at the delegate balloting for the 1940 RNC, either Dewey or Willkie (whose support also generally came from the establishment camp) led every single ballot of the convention.

I do agree that the exact timing of events in WW2 probably hurt his candidacy, but I think Taft's loss can largely be explained just by the fact that the establishment wing was stronger; that wing won every contested Republican nomination from 1940 up until Goldwater's win in 1964. Also, somewhat unrelated, but I've always found it interesting that Taft probably came closest to winning the nomination in 1952, going up against arguably the second-most lauded war-hero-turned-political-figure in American history.

[Orser67]

I still find it interesting how well Thomas Dewey did, although he was just a New York district attorney at the time (though he almost unseated Governor Herbert Lehman in 1938).

I think this is interesting too, and my theory is that, to some extent, people had been conditioned by a century of randos from New York being on the national ticket (e.g. Alton Parker, Horace Greeley, Whitelaw Reid, Chester A. Arthur, FDR in 1920).

[If my soul was made of stone]

I still find it interesting how well Thomas Dewey did, although he was just a New York district attorney at the time (though he almost unseated Governor Herbert Lehman in 1938).

I think this is interesting too, and my theory is that, to some extent, people had been conditioned by a century of randos from New York being on the national ticket (e.g. Alton Parker, Horace Greeley, Whitelaw Reid, Chester A. Arthur, FDR in 1920).

The end of this practice (see also Neckbeard Racist Incel Mass Shooter Horatio Seymour and "Clean Anti-Corruption Crusader" Sam Tilden) is one of the better consequences of New York no longer being a swing state, though of course not nearly as much as the fact that the New York State Board of Elections' incompetence doesn't have the fate of the Presidency or Senate hanging in the balance for months on end.

[Plankton5165]

Helen Taft was still alive in 1940, so Robert would have a living presidential mother that was once a First Lady.

And FDR not won a third term, he would not have died in office, but had Wendell Wilkie won the election, he would’ve died in office. Notice how the curse of Tippecanoe would still apply.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Because at the time, nominees were chosen by party boxes rather than voters themselves.

[Senator Incitatus]

Wendell Wilkie had a much better persona when dealing with the press.

If by this you mean he was cheating on his wife with a well-connected publicist, then yes.

[Senator Incitatus]

Wendell Wilkie had a much better persona when dealing with the press.

If by this you mean he was cheating on his wife with a well-connected publicist, then yes.

I was talking about the press, not personal matters.

There was no difference. Willkie was not "good with the press" in any particular personal way. Irita Van Doren used her connections in the press to get favorable coverage for her boy toy. This is one of the best-documented facts about the Willkie phenomenon.

I was possibly wrong to call her a publicist; she didn't do that for a living, though that is clearly the role she played in an amateur capacity for Willkie.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republicans at the time were split between a more isolationist midwestern wing led by Taft, and a more internationalist Northeastern wing of which Dewey was the chief figure (I'm not sure if it's accurate to say that Dewey "led" that wing in 1940; certainly he did by 1948). If you look at the delegate balloting for the 1940 RNC, either Dewey or Willkie (whose support also generally came from the establishment camp) led every single ballot of the convention.

I do agree that the exact timing of events in WW2 probably hurt his candidacy, but I think Taft's loss can largely be explained just by the fact that the establishment wing was stronger; that wing won every contested Republican nomination from 1940 up until Goldwater's win in 1964. Also, somewhat unrelated, but I've always found it interesting that Taft probably came closest to winning the nomination in 1952, going up against arguably the second-most lauded war-hero-turned-political-figure in American history.

Goldwater was different than Taft in the fact he was more hawkish than the establishment rather than less so and was attacked for being so. That did change the GOP as the conservative wing of the party in general became more hawkish and outside of Pat Buchanan you would see Republicans take a more hawkish stance in primaries to win over that base for the next 50 years until Trump came around.