UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[DINGO Joe]

Apparently Harry's spokesman has said that he went to Balmoral alone, Megan did not join.

Kate's not there either. They've got little kids and all.

[DINGO Joe]

ITV has now abandoned its normal programming for news coverage, presenter all in black.

Operation London Bridge has started, it seems. 

All news organisations will scramble to get films on air and obituaries online. At the Guardian, the deputy editor has a list of prepared stories pinned to his wall. The Times is said to have 11 days of coverage ready to go. At Sky News and ITN, which for years rehearsed the death of the Queen substituting the name “Mrs Robinson”, calls will go out to royal experts who have already signed contracts to speak exclusively on those channels. “I am going to be sitting outside the doors of the Abbey on a hugely enlarged trestle table commentating to 300 million Americans about this,” one told me.

What?  I don't know what the name Mrs. Robinson connotates in England, but on this side of the Atlantic.......

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/16/what-happens-when-queen-elizabeth-dies-london-bridge

[DINGO Joe]

Polling over the past few days has been quite something. Since the weekend, we've had polls from Redfield & Wilton, Deltapoll and YouGov, who poll weekly or biweekly. All have Labour at 44-45% and the Tories on 28-31%. Redfield's 13% lead is the largest they've recorded for Labour, as is YouGov's 17% lead.

This parliament has been an odd one for polling. A post-election honeymoon for the Tories built into a historic lead, thanks to a COVID bump. That lead dissolved after their first round of PPE contract scandals, and the first whispers of partygate around Christmas 2020. They recovered as the vaccine programme got underway (and benefitted as Labour had a terrible summer with the Hartlepool by-election), but the Matt Hancock debacle heralded a polling decline only sped-up by the resurgence of partygate.

The Tories haven't recovered the lead since last Christmas, and any hopes for a new-PM bounce seem to have evaporated. Short of an out-of-nowhere conference bump, it looks like we're settling into an extended period with Labour in the lead.

It's big turn-around compared to polling in the last few cycles. Corbyn never took a consistent lead over the Tories (basically trailing throughout his leadership), and while Milliband led in the aggregate for much of the coalition years, his leads were often only a few points over the Tories, and melted away during the election.

I guess it could be a mirage - Kinnock soared ahead as Thatcher's premiership collapsed, falling back to parity with the Conservatives as Major established himself. But Major was elected to steady the ship - Truss was elected to "run fast and break things". And like all PMs, Truss is likely to become less popular over time, not more.

Labour will get the fabled 20 point lead on the same day that the pound falls below the US dollar in value. A fun day on Twitter.

Although the whole "any other leader would be" meme has been beat senseless already.

[DINGO Joe]

Say what you want about Liz but she kept her word

https://twitter.com/TobyonTV/status/1574388859919634432

[DINGO Joe]

Any other leader would be 20 points ahead by now. Smh.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1575526077476110342

[DINGO Joe]

Wonder if there is a way via strategic voting to end up with LD as the opposition party.

[DINGO Joe]

The 15% for Truss as preferred PM is just as amazing/amusing as the voting intentions. Incumbent PMs tend to have an inbuilt advantage on this question, and this poll was conducted when most of the country hadn't seen or heard her and her dazzling media performances in almost a week.

Well, nobody has actually voted for Truss (save for a handful of Con party members) so there's really no attachment to her whatsoever.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1576888448450969600

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1576888448450969600

Just fixing this for everyone not willing to click on the link

[DINGO Joe]

Amazing lack of content, so much so that she kept repeating herself endlessly, even though it was not a long speech.

Please tell me we got an update on those Beijing Pork markets.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1577616497484222466

[DINGO Joe]

Sturgeon got some media flack (particularly in Scotland) for saying she 'detests Tories'... at least until Twitter backed her.

Again, good PR. She said she preferred a Labour government, but that it wouldn't go far enough.

I mean it's obvious that Truss hates Scotland and Scotland hates her (8-74 approval rating) so why would she get any flack in Scotland for saying such?

[DINGO Joe]

Truss ends PMQs with the words: "The last thing we need is a general election."

LoL.  Nice cliffhanger there.

Supposedly she went to the Tea Room afterwards too.

[DINGO Joe]

Can we actually get a NUT map to look at?

Maps:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575929404366106624
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575526882853810192
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd1jJFjXkAA3vLH?format=jpg&name=medium

Tools:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/10/britainpredicts

All of the NUT maps just seem to be uniform swing type of thing, has anyone attempted to do a map with a sizeable chunk of strategic voting?

[DINGO Joe]

From this evening's audience:
Truss: Your majesty, it's lovely to see you again.
Charles: So you've come back again
Truss: It's a great pleasure.
Charles: Dear oh dear. Anyway...

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1580264025648431105

I wonder if Truss has a humiliation kink. From weeks of record low poll ratings, to her cabinet nearing the point of revolt, to being openly dissed by the King in front of the cameras, how has she not stepped down yet? Most people probably would’ve called it quits by now.

I will say, you have to at least admire her mental fortitude.

She is known to be into BDSM, as a thread on this board goes into.

Well, if all of this is BDSM,  someone should remind her the safe word to make it stop--I resign.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1580257195567955968

I guess the Labor number is most telling as they were pretty much reduced to their base in 2019.  The willingness to destroy all Tories will be the factor that determines how much tactical voting there is.

[DINGO Joe]

A little discussion on saying bollocks on British TV.  Apparently it was too much for the CCTV typist

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1580282141329719296

[DINGO Joe]

At what point is it reasonable to declare someone the worst PM in modern British history? Asking for a friend.

Well, it was probably reasonable about 10 days ago.  Now it's a virtual lock.  Since, I really couldn't name a PM between Churchill and Thatcher, I did a little googling about PM rankings and amusingly, the latest organization that periodically does an academic survey to rank Postwar PMs is--The University of Leeds.  Leeds of course being the town that Truss was so traumatized growing up in during the Thatcher-Major years and the University where her father (who in no way supports her being PM) is an emeritus professor.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/ed_miliband/status/1580931307185401856?s=46&t=YHSGup5mOz...

Took a fair amount of restraint to hold off playing that card til now. 

[DINGO Joe]

Nobody gives a quote like "anonymous Tory MP" does.

https://twitter.com/MrMichaelSpicer/status/1581028189979041792

OK, technically this is a parody, but at this point........

[DINGO Joe]

Well, one minor plus of this whole trainwreck is we were never subjected to a Liz goes to Ukraine moment.

[DINGO Joe]

YouGov polling of Tory members for the Times finds 55% want Truss to resign. Other headline results from the poll:

• Sunak would beat Truss 55%-25% in a rerun of the ballot.
• Johnson (somehow) leads the list of preferred replacement PMs with 32%, ahead of Rishi Sunak with 22%, Wallace on 10%, Mordaunt on 9% and Badenoch on 8%.
• 60% of members want a unity candidate to emerge.
• 50% of members think the membership should be excluded from the next leadership election.

Yeah, they look like a useful collection of people

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1582755650672525313?s=20&t=EP00M9D05awtYE5...

You don't f**k with the Tofu lobby and expect to survive.

[DINGO Joe]

I know I will probably get slated for this again but I'd still definitely keep an eye on Braverman - a dark horse to take over.

She more likely to be found in a vat of tofu in Wokingham, than be the next PM.

[DINGO Joe]

BTW, I don't know it's be noted here yet, but the utter chaos of the fracking and/or confidence vote was started by Labor calling for a vote on extending the fracking ban.  The member of Labor who submitted the call--Ed Milliband. 

Payback is a Mutha.

[DINGO Joe]

Walpole (first (recognised) Prime Minister and longest serving Prime Minister)
Perceval (only Prime Minister to be assassinated)
Truss (shortest serving Prime Minister)

All pub quiz answers for at least a couple of centuries, I would imagine.

Braverman has a great shot at being shortest serving home secretary followed by Braverman