UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Cassius]

Alistair Darling has died. Sad, and at least to me surprising, news; he was only 70.

Cancer apparently, which as we all know can off you very rapidly. RIP.

[MayorCarcetti]

Kissinger, MacGowan and now Darling in one day, quite the day for celebrity deaths. There'll be an interesting chat between the last two at least in the queue outside the pearly gates

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It sounds like it must have been an aggressive cancer. Poor man.

Anyway, he was a very capable administrative politician, the sort of man that every government needs a few of (and that, frankly, the present government lacks). He will always be remembered for dealing with a nightmare of a situation as Chancellor and for doing so about as well as was possible: recent events have, perhaps, highlighted why this matters. RIP.

[TheTide]

Ironically (aptly?):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67577783

[CumbrianLefty]

Kissinger, MacGowan and now Darling in one day, quite the day for celebrity deaths. There'll be an interesting chat between the last two at least in the queue outside the pearly gates

Some in the UK will also have noted Jimmy Corkhill's passing.

[TheTide]

Kissinger, MacGowan and now Darling in one day, quite the day for celebrity deaths. There'll be an interesting chat between the last two at least in the queue outside the pearly gates

Some in the UK will also have noted Jimmy Corkhill's passing.

Looked like my uncle as it happens.

[Torrain]

Sad news about Darling. Competent operator, and he'll always have my respect for the work he did for Better Together in 2014, amid a tense atmosphere.

[Torrain]

Ironically (aptly?):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67577783

Forgive me if I'm misreading - but is he suggesting a referendum, on the right to hold a referendum?

I get the attempts to skirt the legal ruling, and establish a mandate. But it's so bogged down in process, and clearly no one's preferred option. Also, unlikely to get enough co-sponsors in Holyrood to proceed.

Which does all make it very representative of late-stage-Salmond...

[MABA 2020]

Alistair Darling has died. Sad, and at least to me surprising, news; he was only 70.

This was very surprising yes

RIP

[Torrain]

How it started:


How it’s going:
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1730506033179599029

Statistical noise giveth, and it taketh away.

[CumbrianLefty]

Strangely, this one isn't getting a front page write up in the "paper of record".

[Blair]

Ha I thought this- such poor coverage of polling isn’t there. You would have thought after everything people would have learnt

[Cassius]

They should pass a law restricting polling companies to a maximum of one poll per month to cut back on this ridiculous orgy of opinion polling that we currently have (I think there were more polls released in November than there were days in the month).

[TheTide]

They should pass a law restricting polling companies to a maximum of one poll per month to cut back on this ridiculous orgy of opinion polling that we currently have (I think there were more polls released in November than there were days in the month).

Less inclination towards herding as well I would have thought.

[Pericles]

Yet another reminder of what a scumbag Boris Johnson is.

Boris Johnson pushed to “punish people who aren’t doing the right thing” and for “massive fines” when it came to lockdown rules, the Covid-19 inquiry has heard.

An extract from the diaries of the government’s chief scientific adviser at the time, Sir Patrick Vallance, recorded discussions he had with the then prime minister and health secretary in September 2020, when cases, admissions and deaths had all risen.

While Vallance recorded that he had argued that levels of isolation were key, the others chose to “go straight” to enforcement.

The diary reads: “PM ‘punish people who don’t self-isolate’, ‘Punish people who aren’t doing the right thing’, ‘Close some pubs and bars’, ‘We need a lot more punishments and a lot more closing down’.”

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's up on the stand for two days next week, incidentally. Should be... er... anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

They should pass a law restricting polling companies to a maximum of one poll per month to cut back on this ridiculous orgy of opinion polling that we currently have (I think there were more polls released in November than there were days in the month).

Less inclination towards herding as well I would have thought.

Not many recent indications of poll herding tbf. Maybe the last prominent example was the 2015 GE campaign, and it blowing up in their faces so spectacularly then has likely been a deterrent since.

[afleitch]

Time marches on

https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1730567500574675198

[IceAgeComing]

Believe it went unmentioned here but Nottingham Council announced it was issuing a Section 114 notice (which is basically saying that they are bankrupt); joining a growing list of insolvent local councils. This is something that has the potential to explode: there's reports that a lot of councils are on the brink of going bust themselves and if it spreads into a widespread problem including government of all parties (which is already has) and to 'well ran councils' it basically forces whoever is in government to make some not very popular decisions.

I think it's a complicated thing: from the 70s on the primary source of council funding shifted from local taxes to central government grants (an intentional political decision); and they've also increasingly had statutory requirements foisted on them which basically requires them to provide certain services but also bear the costs from existing funding; which has been squeezed. So basically you've got councils that are restricted in the revenue they can raise; with legal obligations to provide certain services and a bulk of the remainder are things like leisure centres and bin collections that are widely seen as the purview of councils to provide. The solution is not palatable: its either accepting permanently much high local taxes (which I think would boost Council Tax reform efforts); or moving a bunch of the statutory services to Central Government which you'd then have to fund which also puts an upwards pressure on taxes. Or alternatively we accept that local councils should do less things; but like that's been the direction of things for over a decade now and I would argue councils are mostly at the core of what they should be doing in most places.

A perfect example of the very difficult decisions that the next government will have to make: unless we somehow find a bunch of growth or productivity increases the next government is inherently very constrained by the fiscal situation: the National Insurance cut in the Autumn Statement was partially funded by some... ambitious spending predictions across government in the late 2020s. I also suspect its why Labour are being vague about specific commitments - I don't know if they've started getting the civil service briefings that oppositions parties generally get in advance of elections yet but it would not shock me if they are holding back until they get that access to see where things ultimately are before you start seeing spending commitments.

[Blair]

The two key issues are specifically adult social care & support for young people with various social needs; it's given the shorthand of SEND in the policy world but it can really range from anything to support for mild dyslexia, to providing around the clock care & transport for severely disabled children- and the council have to cover this until the age of 25.

Add in the slow timebomb of social housing reaching the end of its lifecycle and well you've got problems.

Like a lot of things would you really entrust local authorities with this if you were designing it from starch especially when the democratic mechanism are so weak; A.) Does a badly performing local authority mean the governing local party loses- not always B.) Does it actually matter, as the decisions around this stuff are made by local officials who earn 3-4x as much as Government civil servants.

It's all a mess and I've not even touched the other issues e.g the problem with councils borrowing to 'invest', the realiance on outsourcing, the funding cuts, the command and control culture and the new added layer of metro mayors.

It's baffling for example that we still have what 32 individual councils in London and a Mayor who effectively only has power over planning decisions and some policing matters

[EastAnglianLefty]

One issue is that the responsibilities of UK local authorities are basically all the things national government had no interest in providing back when the responsibilities were decided. Back in the 70s, social care meant running asylums, rather than something that probably around half of us will require at some point in our lives.

Had it been what it now is, it would never have been a local government responsibility. But because it is so expensive and so difficult to do well, only a distinctly selfless national government will take on that responsibility. I could add a partisan twist to this, but I don't think I really need to.

[JimJamUK]

Not to play devils advocate, but it’s worth noting that so far all the councils that have issued bankruptcy notices were poorly run, and most of them were taking big financial risks in borrowing/investments. That’s not to say councils are doing well, almost all of them are unpopular for the worsening services they provide on a tight budget, and the projections around spending on adult social care and special educational needs are very concerning the long term, but in the short term Section 114 looks to be reserved for poorly ran councils only.

[Blair]

I believe for the first time since 2019 the Government have been defeated on a whipped vote in the Commons- the vote in question was on the infected blood scandal and essentially called for the Government to provide compensation to the victims

Passed by four votes; ironically the voters in Selby, Mid Beds and Tamworth could well be to thanks.

[Torrain]

23 Tory rebels on the motion, from disparate backgrounds, from One Nation to ERG. Caroline Nokes, Rehman Chishti, Andrea Jenkyns and Damian Green agreeing on a policy - feels vaguely end-of-days.

The government had briefed this out as worth withdrawing the whip over, if the three-line whip was broken. Can't imagine that'll happen, given what it would do to their majority...

There was also 26 Tory rebels opposing the governments introduction of the zero emission vehicle mandate. That one had all the expected names on an issue like that (Braverman, Cash, Cates, Drax, Gullis, Jenkyns, IDS etc).

If whipping is already a bit on the shaky side - what's it going to look like when the emergency legislation on Rwanda is introduced? Amendments from both sides of the party, and grandstanding all around.

Presumably it gets turned into a confidence motion to keep the troops onside?

[CumbrianLefty]

I believe for the first time since 2019 the Government have been defeated on a whipped vote in the Commons- the vote in question was on the infected blood scandal and essentially called for the Government to provide compensation to the victims

Passed by four votes; ironically the voters in Selby, Mid Beds and Tamworth could well be to thanks.

Though the SDLP is also claiming it was their 2 MPs wot won it