UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/jayrayner1/status/1642448857895141376?s=20

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Lib Dems look pretty out of contention in Argyll + Bute, so my assumption is that the SNP win on a heavily split field (God knows what order the other parties are in). Lanark + Hamilton East has enough residual Labour support that I would assume they will quite easily squeeze a lot of the Tory vote, whether it’s enough to win I’m not sure.

North Ayrshire and Arran is similar to East Renfrewshire, being seats where the Tories were clearly stronger in 2019 but which had Labour history and you’d expect on current polling couldn’t be won by the Tories but the SNP vote share will only be in the 30s. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is also in this bucket. In these seats how much campaigning the Tories and Labour do will matter a lot, as will any media narrative about Scotland being a Labour vs SNP battle.

Put it this way, whatever the past couple of elections say about a constituency, if in the 2024 general election the Tories are sub-20% and Labour are over 30%, then basically every urban/Central Belt constituency should see Labour outpolling the Tories, especially as the general election Labour vote has already been artificially squeezed by both the Tories and SNP in these places but remains stronger in local elections (with a lot of voters being willing to vote Labour in the right circumstances). 

Aye, that pretty much tracks. The Lib Dem coalition that used to deliver them rural Highland seats seems to have just dissolved, with the singular exception of Jamie Stone, who seems to cling on by the skin of his teeth each cycle. And aye - Labour should outpoll the Tories across the Central Belt if current polling holds, and they're leading the Tories by 10-15%.

What was that coalition and how did it dissolve(was the student fees fiasco that much of a big deal in places without that many students) ?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Student fees didn't hurt the Lib Dems because it lost them votes amongst students, because students have low turnout and are mostly not in marginal seats anyway. It hurt them because making something your key issue in the run-up to the election and then doing a complete 180 at the first opportunity makes you look completely shameless and untrustworthy.

[Blair]

I wonder if results down under have made the Tories reject outsourcing their electoral machine to the right wing Australians?

[JimJamUK]

And it’s important to note that the Lib Dems polling was already collapsing by the time the tuition fees hike was announced, with not much more happening in the months after. The ‘I won’t vote Lib Dem anymore because of tuition fees” includes many people who had already abandoned them based on everything else (at best it solidified their views).

[oldtimer]

The Lib Dems look pretty out of contention in Argyll + Bute, so my assumption is that the SNP win on a heavily split field (God knows what order the other parties are in). Lanark + Hamilton East has enough residual Labour support that I would assume they will quite easily squeeze a lot of the Tory vote, whether it’s enough to win I’m not sure.

North Ayrshire and Arran is similar to East Renfrewshire, being seats where the Tories were clearly stronger in 2019 but which had Labour history and you’d expect on current polling couldn’t be won by the Tories but the SNP vote share will only be in the 30s. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is also in this bucket. In these seats how much campaigning the Tories and Labour do will matter a lot, as will any media narrative about Scotland being a Labour vs SNP battle.

Put it this way, whatever the past couple of elections say about a constituency, if in the 2024 general election the Tories are sub-20% and Labour are over 30%, then basically every urban/Central Belt constituency should see Labour outpolling the Tories, especially as the general election Labour vote has already been artificially squeezed by both the Tories and SNP in these places but remains stronger in local elections (with a lot of voters being willing to vote Labour in the right circumstances).  

Aye, that pretty much tracks. The Lib Dem coalition that used to deliver them rural Highland seats seems to have just dissolved, with the singular exception of Jamie Stone, who seems to cling on by the skin of his teeth each cycle. And aye - Labour should outpoll the Tories across the Central Belt if current polling holds, and they're leading the Tories by 10-15%.

What was that coalition and how did it dissolve(was the student fees fiasco that much of a big deal in places without that many students) ?

It's a long story that begins in the late 1980's, so here is a quick and sloppy summary:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Paddy Ashdown had a great plan: install liberal leaders to all 3 main parties so that the Liberals will govern irrespective of which party wins.

Also if one of them is short in seats they can easily form a coalition with the LD, so that they can gain the perks of power directly.

He already agreed on that with Blair in 1997, but Blair being greedy reneged when he got a majority, humiliating Ashdown who had to step down.

Kennedy's leftwingers took temporary charge of the LD to oppose Blair, but Ashdown undemined him and removed him, he then installed his puppet Clegg.

With fellow liberal Cameron in charge of the Conservatives, Ashdown happily propped him up thinking that there will be no consequences from the angry voters who never consented to such a thing.

Then Cameron backstabbed him by taking all his seats and blaming him for all the problems, leaving Ashdown a humiliated fool who had promised to eat his hat on TV.

In short, it was all Paddy Ashdown's fault for thinking that his fellow liberals where idealists rather than selfish, and for having a very low opinion of voters.

[CumbrianLefty]

Don't think it was really Blair being "greedy" tbh - he still wanted some sort of arrangement with the LibDems and indeed electoral reform, but the sheer size of Labour's 1997 win made both impractical.

[afleitch]

So, Braverman and Sunak focusing on the...'community origin' of the gangs. Is anyone else getting vibes here or is it just me?

[Torrain]

So, Braverman and Sunak focusing on the...'community origin' of the gangs. Is anyone else getting vibes here or is it just me?

Yeah… Highlighting British-Pakistanis, for a pattern of crime that appears to be predominantly committed by white Britons feels somewhere between unwise and deliberate.

I accept that, given what we’ve seen in places like Rotherham, there are issues specific to the community in question. But the framing seems characteristically blunt, pure Braverman, in a way that could be exploited.

The fact this drive is being lead by two British-Indian politicians feels like it’s own misstep - especially in the wake of clashes like those we saw in Leicester last year.

[TheTide]

Nigel Lawson, Chancellor for most of the Thatcher era, has passed away at the age of 91.

[CumbrianLefty]

Unfortunately, he attracted notoriety in later years for his blatant climate change denial.

[Torrain]

Yeah - that was a very regrettable final chapter. .

[Zinneke]

What is this about Keir Starmer removing the previous Scottish Labour leader? I thought the latter (as in the role) was pretty independent?

[Coldstream]

What is this about Keir Starmer removing the previous Scottish Labour leader? I thought the latter (as in the role) was pretty independent?

He didn’t literally remove Leonard, but members of his team and the shadow cabinet openly said he should stand down - leaving him with very little choice.

[Coldstream]

Peter Murrell arrested in the investigation in to the SNP’s finances, it really is all coming crashing down.

[Torrain]

Apparently they're searching Murrell & Sturgeon's house - they've set up a gazebo as a control centre on Sturgeon's front lawn.



There's also a major police presence at SNP HQ this morning. Police Scotland have confirmed they are conducting simultaneous searches in the inquiry (Operation Branchform) this morning. Over a dozen officers have been filmed entering the premises.  

[Logical]

So that's why Kate Forbes was smiling like a Cheshire cat when the leadership results were announced.

[CumbrianLefty]

What is this about Keir Starmer removing the previous Scottish Labour leader? I thought the latter (as in the role) was pretty independent?

He didn’t literally remove Leonard, but members of his team and the shadow cabinet openly said he should stand down - leaving him with very little choice.

As already stated there was a previous explicit attempt to remove him, which almost succeeded. From then on the writing was on the wall, and at least he got to leave office with some dignity this way.

[TheTide]

Woah

Edit: Apparently they're searching Murrell & Sturgeon's house - they've set up a gazebo as a control centre on Sturgeon's front lawn.



There's also a major police presence at SNP HQ this morning. Police Scotland have confirmed they are conducting simultaneous searches in the inquiry (Operation Branchform) this morning. Over a dozen officers have been filmed entering the premises. 

Blimey, it looks like a murder scene.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[CumbrianLefty]

So that's why Kate Forbes was smiling like a Cheshire cat when the leadership results were announced.

"At least I don't have to take over this s***show right now".

[Torrain]

Woah

Edit: Apparently they're searching Murrell & Sturgeon's house - they've set up a gazebo as a control centre on Sturgeon's front lawn.



There's also a major police presence at SNP HQ this morning. Police Scotland have confirmed they are conducting simultaneous searches in the inquiry (Operation Branchform) this morning. Over a dozen officers have been filmed entering the premises. 

Blimey, it looks like a murder scene.

Nonsense, Yousaf is just fulfilling his campaign promises :

[afleitch]

Clearly not the most joyous of days, but the...'theatrics' of Police Scotland; the tent in the garden, the dozen officers to carry out a few small boxes hasn't gone unnoticed.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Woah

Edit: Apparently they're searching Murrell & Sturgeon's house - they've set up a gazebo as a control centre on Sturgeon's front lawn.



There's also a major police presence at SNP HQ this morning. Police Scotland have confirmed they are conducting simultaneous searches in the inquiry (Operation Branchform) this morning. Over a dozen officers have been filmed entering the premises.  

Blimey, it looks like a murder scene.

https://twitter.com/ConnorGillies/status/1643625464739553282
Uhhhh… are we sure it isn’t..? Or did Murrel bury his hard drive and financial records under the patio?

[rc18]

Clearly not the most joyous of days, but the...'theatrics' of Police Scotland; the tent in the garden, the dozen officers to carry out a few small boxes hasn't gone unnoticed.

Is that the best the Cybernats can come up with?