UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

Its the mythology that Thatcher was always "resolute" and never ever compromised that is killing the Tories - Truss deployed this fairy story constantly during her fated 50 days as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its the mythology that Thatcher was always "resolute" and never ever compromised that is killing the Tories - Truss deployed this fairy story constantly during her fated 50 days as well.

Whereas the real Mrs Thatcher - up until her somewhat addled final years in office at least - never picked a fight she wasn't sure she'd win and would always settle as quickly as possible otherwise. That was the whole trick!

[omar04]

Its the mythology that Thatcher was always "resolute" and never ever compromised that is killing the Tories - Truss deployed this fairy story constantly during her fated 50 days as well.

What were some notable compromises of her? I do know that she signed the agreement to return Hong Kong in 1997.

[CumbrianLefty]

There were lots over time, though they mostly came before the 1987 GE which tells its own story.

An under-remembered one was her declaration that "the NHS is safe with us" at the 1982(?) party conference - some normally sympathetic think tankers and ideologues were far from happy at this.

[Blair]

In the context of reform having a small bump in coverage I’ve seen a lot of Conservative MPs claim the issue of small boats is the ‘no.1’ issue on the doorstep especially in the future marginals in the Midlands, South coast and so forth.

The polling doesn’t reflect this and I assume it’s the usual tyranny of the doorstep- I obviously don’t spend my time talking to Tories on the doorstep so I remain sceptical of how much anger there actually is on this issue?

I am aware politicians frequently lie or distort what they hear- so I guess Occams Razor applies?

[Blair]

Dominic Raab is meanwhile posting about bins.

I love a cabinet minister fighting a marginal seat…

[CumbrianLefty]

In the context of reform having a small bump in coverage I’ve seen a lot of Conservative MPs claim the issue of small boats is the ‘no.1’ issue on the doorstep especially in the future marginals in the Midlands, South coast and so forth.

The polling doesn’t reflect this and I assume it’s the usual tyranny of the doorstep- I obviously don’t spend my time talking to Tories on the doorstep so I remain sceptical of how much anger there actually is on this issue?

I am aware politicians frequently lie or distort what they hear- so I guess Occams Razor applies?

Of course the "tyranny of the doorstep" is very much a cross-party thing - it certainly helps explain why many Labour MPs are so reactionary on drugs reform, for example.

[JimJamUK]

‘Issue I think is important and want the government to do something about’ is the top issue for my constituents shocker.

[EastAnglianLefty]

In the context of reform having a small bump in coverage I’ve seen a lot of Conservative MPs claim the issue of small boats is the ‘no.1’ issue on the doorstep especially in the future marginals in the Midlands, South coast and so forth.

The polling doesn’t reflect this and I assume it’s the usual tyranny of the doorstep- I obviously don’t spend my time talking to Tories on the doorstep so I remain sceptical of how much anger there actually is on this issue?

I am aware politicians frequently lie or distort what they hear- so I guess Occams Razor applies?

I suspect there is a distinction between the issues exercising most people doorstepped, which usually leads to them telling the canvasser to  off, and the issues exercising most former voters who want to rant about something for ten minutes.

I also suspect that most Conservative doorstep activists are very pissed off about the issue, which doesn't necessarily mean most voters are bringing it up unprompted.

[TheTide]

In the context of reform having a small bump in coverage I’ve seen a lot of Conservative MPs claim the issue of small boats is the ‘no.1’ issue on the doorstep especially in the future marginals in the Midlands, South coast and so forth.

The polling doesn’t reflect this and I assume it’s the usual tyranny of the doorstep- I obviously don’t spend my time talking to Tories on the doorstep so I remain sceptical of how much anger there actually is on this issue?

I am aware politicians frequently lie or distort what they hear- so I guess Occams Razor applies?

Of course the "tyranny of the doorstep" is very much a cross-party thing - it certainly helps explain why many Labour MPs are so reactionary on drugs reform, for example.

The Tyranny of Twitter may be a newer form of this.

[CumbrianLefty]

Rwanda scheme declared legal by the High Court today.

Not a great surprise, and anybody actually being sent there could still be some way off.

[Coldstream]

In the context of reform having a small bump in coverage I’ve seen a lot of Conservative MPs claim the issue of small boats is the ‘no.1’ issue on the doorstep especially in the future marginals in the Midlands, South coast and so forth.

The polling doesn’t reflect this and I assume it’s the usual tyranny of the doorstep- I obviously don’t spend my time talking to Tories on the doorstep so I remain sceptical of how much anger there actually is on this issue?

I am aware politicians frequently lie or distort what they hear- so I guess Occams Razor applies?

I’ve been canvassing for our locals in May for the last two months, I’ve only had 1 person raise the boat crossings - this was in a traditional Tory seat that went hard to the Lib Dems in 2019. But as it’s only 1 person I’m not sure you can draw any conclusions about the demographics of people who care, other than that very few do.

[Conservatopia]

I hang out with people you might call "rightwing headbangers" both old and young and the economy (+strikes, energy) is definitely a bigger issue than the boats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Listen to people having conversations about politics and/or The News, it's very like the 1990s all over again: people are furious at the state of the public services and have worked out that the government is to blame.

[CumbrianLefty]

And yet, some in the government really seem to think they can take on health workers and win.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Thing is many people in the 80s didn't know coal miners, and you could reasonably come to the conclusion the strikers were some selfish people far away only interested in their parochial interests: everyone knows somebody working for the NHS or in some public service, and it's very hard to argue with them.

[omar04]

There were lots over time, though they mostly came before the 1987 GE which tells its own story.

An under-remembered one was her declaration that "the NHS is safe with us" at the 1982(?) party conference - some normally sympathetic think tankers and ideologues were far from happy at this.

Out of curiosity, did she ever compromise with any unions?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There were lots over time, though they mostly came before the 1987 GE which tells its own story.

An under-remembered one was her declaration that "the NHS is safe with us" at the 1982(?) party conference - some normally sympathetic think tankers and ideologues were far from happy at this.

Out of curiosity, did she ever compromise with any unions?

Not really a compromise, because the situation is complicated, but two unions - EETPU and the Union of Democratic Mineworkers - worked a lot behind the scenes with Thatcher, and they were presented as the moderate party to scargill's extremists. Iirc they also made seperate deals with unions that represented the more technical and managerial positions to isolate num itself.

[Blair]

There’s a danger this descends into farce by the Government- the advice not to get drunk or go out on the ice unless you slip is pretty hilarious.

The ambulance strike also begs the question of will people notice a change; the service has largely been broken and crippled over the last year due to a range of reasons.

Other than the sector being ‘public sector’ they really don’t have any of their usual attack lines when it’s nurses and ambulance drivers striking.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There were lots over time, though they mostly came before the 1987 GE which tells its own story.

An under-remembered one was her declaration that "the NHS is safe with us" at the 1982(?) party conference - some normally sympathetic think tankers and ideologues were far from happy at this.

Out of curiosity, did she ever compromise with any unions?

Very frequently - just about every time she wasn't sure she'd win before 1987. In 1981 the NUM got a massive pay rise, because she calculated it was better to spend more time preparing before she went to war with them.

After 1987, she got a lot more arrogant, but even then she backed down on occasion - the ambulance workers strike in 1989 being a relevant example there.

[TheTide]

There’s a danger this descends into farce by the Government- the advice not to get drunk or go out on the ice unless you slip is pretty hilarious.

Given that there was a serious debate a couple of years ago about whether scotch eggs are a substantial meal and a chief constable was threatening to search shopping bags for non essential items, it's not exactly surprising.

[MillennialModerate]

I haven’t seen a poll in a while does that mean Labour is slipping?

[Torrain]

I haven’t seen a poll in a while does that mean Labour is slipping?

Not really. I probably overdid it with the polls earlier in the year, but the numbers were so wild, that it just kept feeling noteworthy. After a while, the novelty wore off. Labour are still down from their Truss peak - (but that was so unprecedented that no-one expected that sort of 30% lead to hold), but a holding a healthy lead.

It’s a gap of roughly 20% in the average. Some variation between the pollsters, but that’s to be expected with the different methodologies used. The only notable development over the past few weeks was when we passed the 1 year anniversary of Labour leading every poll (except one - where they tied the Tories, about 8 or 9 months ago).

[CumbrianLefty]

Even that "tied" poll actually showed a Labour lead of nearly 1%, but it got rounded down.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1606231023435530241?s=46&t=Vu6T30zE...