UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[EastAnglianLefty]

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

This could have been said in 1995 too. Not saying a Labour 1997-style landslide is a sure thing, but the huge damage inflicted on the Tory brand over the past few weeks is not going to go away immediately.

Labour led by any where from 15% to 35% (with the vast majority being over 20%) between 1995 and 1997. The final result was Labour +12.5… and that was with a political titan like Tony Blair.

Unfortunately the conservatives putting party before country is going to pay off for them (just like the GOP)

It is worth noting at this point that polling from the 1990s should be taken roughly as seriously as we take you, but in the opposite direction - polling then had what was known as the "shy Tory" effect and found considerably fewer Conservative supporters than there were regular Conservative voters. So a 15% lead in the polls then did not imply that Labour were likely to win by 15%.

Polling methods adapted to deal with this, and whilst it's possible that there are effects skewing things slightly one way or the other, it's unlikely to be by more than a couple of points. An improvement in the polls is going to have to come from the Conservatives persuading more people to vote for them.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

hahahahaha there's SERIOUSLY a movement to just immediately go back to BoJo??? Incredible.

The most sophisticated electorate in the World!

A bombastic but slick womanizer/abuser who knows how to exploit the media and speak to the electorate's basic instincts becoming the object of cult-like devotion? Wow, who could have possibly predicted this...

Italy did it first, but the Anglos stole your thunder. Sad!

[CumbrianLefty]

I get it that Sunak is not the best communicator, is a bit of a trimmer, and could never win a general election (but then who can at the moment for the Tories - Zelensky?), and that yes Boris has charisma, and that bouncing him for lying about party gate seems not the worst malum in se act imaginable, but that is just me (yes, I quite like the man, roguish as he is, sue me), but why on earth would Tory MP's want more of him, when the mere prospect of that, while not as confidence crushing as Liz Truss at the wheel, is roiling the markets. Why has the Tory MP judgment been so abysmally poor at all of this?  Has the party suffered a brain drain ala the Pubs, and what is left is largely a gravitas free zone of pols on the make?

https://www.ft.com/content/e8d941eb-c435-4897-b957-dbc87ece56ac

This.......is not what actually happened.

Amazing how many of even those not inclined to support him have bought the "cake" line.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I get it that Sunak is not the best communicator, is a bit of a trimmer, and could never win a general election (but then who can at the moment for the Tories - Zelensky?), and that yes Boris has charisma, and that bouncing him for lying about party gate seems not the worst malum in se act imaginable, but that is just me (yes, I quite like the man, roguish as he is, sue me), but why on earth would Tory MP's want more of him, when the mere prospect of that, while not as confidence crushing as Liz Truss at the wheel, is roiling the markets. Why has the Tory MP judgment been so abysmally poor at all of this?  Has the party suffered a brain drain ala the Pubs, and what is left is largely a gravitas free zone of pols on the make?

https://www.ft.com/content/e8d941eb-c435-4897-b957-dbc87ece56ac

This.......is not what actually happened.

Amazing how many of even those not inclined to support him have bought the "cake" line.

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the people that he was ousted because of too many lockdown partys.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

hahahahaha there's SERIOUSLY a movement to just immediately go back to BoJo??? Incredible.

The most sophisticated electorate in the World!

A bombastic but slick womanizer/abuser who knows how to exploit the media and speak to the electorate's basic instincts becoming the object of cult-like devotion? Wow, who could have possibly predicted this...

Italy did it first, but the Anglos stole your thunder. Sad!

On the one hand it's true that Berlusconi's star power has gone away to a huge extent and Forza Italia polled 8% last month, on the other hand at the rate things are going the Tories could be hitting similar numbers soon...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

This could have been said in 1995 too. Not saying a Labour 1997-style landslide is a sure thing, but the huge damage inflicted on the Tory brand over the past few weeks is not going to go away immediately.

Labour led by any where from 15% to 35% (with the vast majority being over 20%) between 1995 and 1997. The final result was Labour +12.5… and that was with a political titan like Tony Blair.

Unfortunately the conservatives putting party before country is going to pay off for them (just like the GOP)

The Doomers have gone international.

[Conservatopia]

Those that know, know.

Why are you always like this?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those that know, know.

Why are you always like this?

In this case a strong desire not to be sued for libel by a current or former (cannot say which) Honourable Member.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Those that know, know.

Why are you always like this?

In this case a strong desire not to be sued for libel by a current or former (cannot say which) Honourable Member.

Jaw-droppingly common British defamation law L. You should write a reworking of After the Banquet just to see what happens.

[Blair]

Why has the Tory MP judgment been so abysmally poor at all of this?  Has the party suffered a brain drain ala the Pubs, and what is left is largely a gravitas free zone of pols on the make?

Yes. They've been in power for twelve years and the decision-making of long-term governments in the UK at the equivalent point in their terms has just been getting worse and worse for decades.

Like young children returning to school the Conservative 2019 intake didn’t really learn how to behave, or interact normally- they’re also very stupid.

You have some shameless MPs from the older intake backing Boris but the bulk are the very right wing lot who won in 2019- was the most ideological and weirdest intakes since Labours 2005 one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those that know, know.

Why are you always like this?

In this case a strong desire not to be sued for libel by a current or former (cannot say which) Honourable Member.

Jaw-droppingly common British defamation law L. You should write a reworking of After the Banquet just to see what happens.

And unlike Mishima I already have a wound in my abdomen, so there's no need to go through with the whole Seppuku affair!

[Joe Republic]

This provides some more info on how the PM replacement affair will be handles for those like myself who are clueless.

https://time.com/6223524/who-replaces-liz-truss-uk-prime-minister/

I would strongly advise against reading any American sources on what's happening in the UK (or let's be honest, any other country).  Their explainers are generally written by people who just had it explained to them ten minutes earlier.

The BBC seems to be more or less adequate.

(Though to be fair, reading BBC analysis of political news in the US can also be a source of comedy.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Those that know, know.

Why are you always like this?

In this case a strong desire not to be sued for libel by a current or former (cannot say which) Honourable Member.

Jaw-droppingly common British defamation law L. You should write a reworking of After the Banquet just to see what happens.

And unlike Mishima I already have a wound in my abdomen, so there's no need to go through with the whole Seppuku affair!

After the Banquet is an excellent book, incidentally. I enjoy Mishima's writing a normal amount, and it's his only novel I would recommend to just about anyone who asked.

[kyc0705]

I would strongly advise against reading any American sources on what's happening in the UK (or let's be honest, any other country).  Their explainers are generally written by people who just had it explained to them ten minutes earlier.

The BBC seems to be more or less adequate.

(Though to be fair, reading BBC analysis of political news in the US can also be a source of comedy.)

Generally speaking, the only value I find in checking US media on UK news (or the reverse) is to see how much a story has crossed over international lines.

[YL]

If (ugh) Johnson makes a comeback, does he still get to have a Resignation Honours for his September resignation?

[Torie]

This provides some more info on how the PM replacement affair will be handles for those like myself who are clueless.

https://time.com/6223524/who-replaces-liz-truss-uk-prime-minister/

I would strongly advise against reading any American sources on what's happening in the UK (or let's be honest, any other country).  Their explainers are generally written by people who just had it explained to them ten minutes earlier.

The BBC seems to be more or less adequate.

(Though to be fair, reading BBC analysis of political news in the US can also be a source of comedy.)

Yes, but that is all I could find. The Guardian run down was too garbled for my taste.

Still unclear is whether Boris and Sunak would have an instant debate, assuming Boris pulls the trigger and they both get 100 votes. That would be ... interesting ... to say the least.

[Conservatopia]

BREAKING NEWS

Liz Truss to replace Steven Gerrard as Aston Villa manager.

Villa: "We will finish the season with more points than than the Tories will have MPs."

[Liminal Trans Girl]

I don't know how this has made things Worse for the Tories

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't know how this has made things Worse for the Tories

Are you new to following international politics? This is an absolutely ridiculous sh**tshow, but the dynamics of what'd happening make sense when you have parliamentary government, a deeply incompetent executive, and a ruling party with an increasingly crazy base.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nominally pro-Tory right-wing blog ConservativeHome came up with a rather scathing editorial regarding a possible BoJo return...

....

The thought occurs that maybe the Conservative Party no longer cares.  Perhaps the sum of its ambition is to become the provisional wing of the right-wing entertainment industry: happy to preach to a diminishing band of true believers, and good for a newpaper column or fringe TV turn, while Keir Starmer gets on with the tiresome business of actually running the country.

If so, it can look forward to a Prime Minister staffing his government with fifth raters, since the bulk of the 66 Ministers who resigned in the summer will refuse to serve.  If a by-election forced by a Commons suspension doesn’t get him first.  If the Tory benches don’t first vote down the report into his conduct that would trigger it, thus speeding the spiral of decline.

The Germans have a word for it: Totentanz – a dance of death.  Conservative MPs, peers, donors, hacks and activists caper owards an open grave, with Death himself – sorry, Johnson – leading the procession.  The dance possesses them; it has a momentum of its own; they are powerless to stop.

....

https://conservativehome.com/2022/10/21/totentanz/

[Silent Hunter]

Latest count of supporting MPs is here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63343308

[Lechasseur]

BREAKING NEWS

Liz Truss to replace Steven Gerrard as Aston Villa manager.

Villa: "We will finish the season with more points than than the Tories will have MPs."

Are Villa doing that badly this year? (I get the Liz Truss thing's a joke, but if Villa specifically was mentioned, well...)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What I desperately want to happen is Johnson sims the election, only to be forced into an election where conservatives are destroyed with less then 5 members including Sunak so he becomes leader by default

Or even funnier he still fails to become leader

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarryTaylr/status/1583585551675928577?s=20&t=REU48xdlILZ...

[Torrain]

Well - it could be worse. At least we’ve disavowed Trussonomics as a country. Some people want to give it another try…
https://mobile.twitter.com/WSJopinion/status/1582551879703302145