UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

hahahahaha there's SERIOUSLY a movement to just immediately go back to BoJo??? Incredible.

The most sophisticated electorate in the World!

something something horny slut PM something something double standard something something glass cliff something something oxen

[Middle-aged Europe]

hahahahaha there's SERIOUSLY a movement to just immediately go back to BoJo??? Incredible.

Francis Urquhart would be delighted.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

hahahahaha there's SERIOUSLY a movement to just immediately go back to BoJo??? Incredible.

Francis Urquhart would be delighted.

That's a terrible thing to say. About both FU and BoJo, actually.

[TheTide]

hahahahaha there's SERIOUSLY a movement to just immediately go back to BoJo??? Incredible.

The most sophisticated electorate in the World!

something something horny slut PM something something double standard something something glass cliff something something oxen

It's a perfectly shrewd choice if their main priority is to ensure a continuing crude soap opera. Which it may be.

[Tintrlvr]

That is the lowest vote share (and people are still double checking) ever recorded for the Conservatives in published General Election opinion polling.

It's not close, either. I checked this earlier when there was a poll with the Tories at 19%. The lowest ever before this was 18.5% in a Gallup poll in January 1995. 14% is just comical.

Edit: Actually I forgot the brief, chaotic moment in summer 2019 when the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems suddenly led in the polls. The Tories hit 17% once in an Opinium poll in May 2019. I think the lowest Labour score ever was also around that time, when they hit 19% a few times.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

If this scenario played out, the almost inevitable end result would be PM Rishi Sunak in the winter. Boris backers will have essentially destroyed the Conservative party to delay his premiership by three or four months.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1583459280224931841?s=20&t=xRr02g...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If this scenario played out, the almost inevitable end result would be PM Rishi Sunak in the winter. Boris backers will have essentially destroyed the Conservative party to delay his premiership by three or four months.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1583459280224931841?s=20&t=xRr02g...

At this point I’m rooting for Boris-Truss-Boris-Sunak-Starmer. Would that be a Year of Five PMs or just four?

[Middle-aged Europe]

If this scenario played out, the almost inevitable end result would be PM Rishi Sunak in the winter. Boris backers will have essentially destroyed the Conservative party to delay his premiership by three or four months.

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1583459280224931841?s=20&t=xRr02g...

Boris and his supporters don't give a damn... full speed ahead... against a wall of bricks.

[Torie]

This provides some more info on how the PM replacement affair will be handles for those like myself who are clueless.

https://time.com/6223524/who-replaces-liz-truss-uk-prime-minister/

[Torrain]

Now that the first candidates are starting to declare, thing it's worth re-upping that we've got a thread specifically for the leadership race over on the International Elections board:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=525853.new#new

[Liminal Trans Girl]

The Tories have almost been polling 40 points behind in the most recent poll. 1993 Canada redux seems possible

[MillennialModerate]

The Tories have almost been polling 40 points behind in the most recent poll. 1993 Canada redux seems possible

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

This could have been written in 1995 too. Not saying a Labour 1997-style landslide is a sure thing, but the huge damage inflicted on the Tory brand over the past few weeks is not going to go away with a change in leadership.

[Torie]

I get it that Sunak is not the best communicator, is a bit of a trimmer, and could never win a general election (but then who can at the moment for the Tories - Zelensky?), and that yes Boris has charisma, and that bouncing him for lying about party gate seems not the worst malum in se act imaginable, but that is just me (yes, I quite like the man, roguish as he is, sue me), but why on earth would Tory MP's want more of him, when the mere prospect of that, while not as confidence crushing as Liz Truss at the wheel, is roiling the markets. Why has the Tory MP judgment been so abysmally poor at all of this?  Has the party suffered a brain drain ala the Pubs, and what is left is largely a gravitas free zone of pols on the make?

https://www.ft.com/content/e8d941eb-c435-4897-b957-dbc87ece56ac

[MillennialModerate]

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

This could have been said in 1995 too. Not saying a Labour 1997-style landslide is a sure thing, but the huge damage inflicted on the Tory brand over the past few weeks is not going to go away immediately.

Labour led by any where from 15% to 35% (with the vast majority being over 20%) between 1995 and 1997. The final result was Labour +12.5… and that was with a political titan like Tony Blair.

Unfortunately the conservatives putting party before country is going to pay off for them (just like the GOP)

[Liminal Trans Girl]

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

This could have been said in 1995 too. Not saying a Labour 1997-style landslide is a sure thing, but the huge damage inflicted on the Tory brand over the past few weeks is not going to go away immediately.

Labour led by any where from 15% to 35% (with the vast majority being over 20%) between 1995 and 1997. The final result was Labour +12.5… and that was with a political titan like Tony Blair.

Unfortunately the conservatives putting party before country is going to pay off for them (just like the GOP)

Does this dooming get boring for you?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why has the Tory MP judgment been so abysmally poor at all of this?  Has the party suffered a brain drain ala the Pubs, and what is left is largely a gravitas free zone of pols on the make?

Yes. They've been in power for twelve years and the decision-making of long-term governments in the UK at the equivalent point in their terms has just been getting worse and worse for decades.

[soundchaser]

Why has the Tory MP judgment been so abysmally poor at all of this?  Has the party suffered a brain drain ala the Pubs, and what is left is largely a gravitas free zone of pols on the make?

Yes. They've been in power for twelve years and the decision-making of long-term governments in the UK at the equivalent point in their terms has just been getting worse and worse for decades.

It's what happens when a party gets bloated and stagnant. When you don't have to sell yourself to voters, you can get away with a lot.

[Torrain]

We're reaching new levels of cognitive dissonance from some of these Johnson supporters:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1583477339471892481

[NewYorkExpress]

This tweet from the Chief Mouser at #10 Downing Street, dated to a few hours before Truss's resignation, says it all.

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1583072541677002752

[MillennialModerate]

For the millionth time… if the election was today yes. It’s in 2 years.

Labour ceilling will be 350-360 once the election comes around

This could have been said in 1995 too. Not saying a Labour 1997-style landslide is a sure thing, but the huge damage inflicted on the Tory brand over the past few weeks is not going to go away immediately.

Labour led by any where from 15% to 35% (with the vast majority being over 20%) between 1995 and 1997. The final result was Labour +12.5… and that was with a political titan like Tony Blair.

Unfortunately the conservatives putting party before country is going to pay off for them (just like the GOP)

Does this dooming get boring for you?

It’s not “dooming” it’s a reality.

You really DONT think the Tories will be in a better spot in 2 years? It’s hard to be a worse spot then they are now. So by default they will be in better shape. I’d still say Labour likely to win but not with a landslide

[Middle-aged Europe]

We're reaching new levels of cognitive dissonance from some of these Johnson supporters:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1583477339471892481

While Boris Johnson obviously has his flaws, it has by now become apparent that he's also the only man capable of leading this country.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1583482907691474944
Conservatives under 20% - equaling some of their worst polling ever, at a time when methodology was a lot weaker.

[CumbrianLefty]

Plugged these numbers into Electoral Calculus (taking into account the Scotland crosstabs):

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	44.7%	365	14.0%	0	365	-365	0
LAB	33.0%	203	53.0%	350	0	+350	553
LIB	11.8%	11	11.0%	8	3	+5	16
Reform	2.1%	0	5.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.8%	0	6.0%	0	0	+0	0
SNP	4.0%	48	5.7%	9	0	+9	57
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.8%	0	0	+0	4
Other	1.1%	0	4.6%	1	0	+1	1
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Almost boring myself with repeating this - but the idea the SNP *still* sweeps Scotland when Labour are very obviously going to landslide England/Wales, remains utterly laughable.

[Battista Minola 1616]

hahahahaha there's SERIOUSLY a movement to just immediately go back to BoJo??? Incredible.

The most sophisticated electorate in the World!

A bombastic but slick womanizer/abuser who knows how to exploit the media and speak to the electorate's basic instincts becoming the object of cult-like devotion? Wow, who could have possibly predicted this...