UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1582662302553501696?s=20&t=ci1ewASa8g8eW5aMv5nnCQ
Brady is keen for the 1922 Committee not to be seen as a firing squad, hence why he effectively left it to the cabinet to do the dirty work with Johnson in July.

Hodges has a mixed record (see everything he’s written on Beergate), so I’d ideally like a second reporter on this, but this definitely fits with the priors we have. We should remember though, that he told us there would be cabinet resignations within 48 hours - almost a week ago. He’s a bit dodgy. 

Brady’s determination to keep 50% of MPs submitting letters as the trigger for rule-changes and further action has been well-documented, in the Times and elsewhere. And the 15% threshold being met in the past day or two tallies with all the cloak and dagger discussions Brady has had with the cabinet since the weekend.

[Torrain]

Tory MP no.6 calling for Truss to go - serial critic Steve Double. Comments made on live radio interview, rather than tweets/open letter.

[Torrain]

Government whips have taken the gamble of making today’s fracking vote a three-line whip, no exceptions, framing it as a confidence vote in government.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kevinaschofield/status/1582668826549792768?s=61&t...
This is ruffling some feathers, as it forces a number of rural MPs to either lose the whip, or cast a vote that Labour will bludgeon them with until Election Day. It’s a big, antagonistic risk - and could burn through the government’s dwindling reserves of political capital.

The decision has been taken by Truss for procedural reasons, explained in a useful thread here: https://mobile.twitter.com/aliceolilly/status/1582674916314583040

[EastAnglianLefty]

I note there have previously been calls for part of Truss's reset to involve firing the Chief Whip.

Then again, it's been so long since they had a good one (Williamson was effective but not really good) that I'm not sure who they have who knows how to do the job properly. Given that Brady is known to have leadership ambitions, maybe he'd be their best bet?

[Silent Hunter]

Remember Chamberlain fell after a slashed majority in an adjournment motion treated as a confidence vote.

[Torrain]

Can anyone think of another example of a three-line whip in favour of a policy explicitly ruled out in the party manifesto?

Feels like we’re entering new territory in the “Truss ignores the 2019 manifesto” saga.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

She's flip flopped on the triple lock again, thus seemingly overruling Jeremy Hunt. In fact she even name dropped the Chancellor.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that the recent Scotland poll was commissioned by Alba. Who inserted themselves as a prompted choice.

In terms of flow of the vote from the five recent published polls, rather than direct swing, the SNP and Labour have the same retention rate of 86% and flow to each other of 9%. Numerically there are more SNP to Labour switchers as there are more SNP voters to start with. A direct flow from Tory to Labour (25%) disproportionally would advantage Labour more in seats where they are in third or even fourth.

So based on that model, the only seats Labour win are Kirkcaldy and East Lothian (currently Alba held) and the SNP take every seat from the Tories.

[CumbrianLefty]

Surely by now Charles would reach out and suggest she resigns?

That would be.....unusual.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1582720306669654016?s=20&t=7SQiuMsDFh...

[CumbrianLefty]

But such a strongarmed vote "in favour" will be essentially meaningless.

The opposition (including in the Tories) won't go away, and fracking won't suddenly become more of a practical long term prospect than it was (not) before.

The "Tories last manifesto said the opposite" argument is pretty unanswerable too.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1582720306669654016

I rate Wragg, and think this is probably one of the better responses a Truss critic could take to this vote.

However, his position - “I’m being loyal, so my disloyalty counts” is a good summation of how febrile and damaged politics has become under this government.

[CumbrianLefty]

She's flip flopped on the triple lock again, thus seemingly overruling Jeremy Hunt. In fact she even name dropped the Chancellor.

Time for another flip-flop or two before her time as PM is over, even if that's fairly soon

[Torrain]

Truss has pulled out of a scheduled visit (where she was expected to take questions) at the last minute. She confirmed she was going around 13.00, then cancelled half an hour later:

• 12:33pm - visit announced via PM’s spokesman: The PM will this afternoon be visiting a British firm that specialises in automative technology “to hear from the kind of businesses driving UK innovation and growth”
• 1:44pm - Downing St tells journalists the visit is off

Unclear whether this is her dodging questions, a genuine pressing matter, or if the government has been paralysed by more 1922 Committee drama.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Worth noting that the recent Scotland poll was commissioned by Alba. Who inserted themselves as a prompted choice.

In terms of flow of the vote from the five recent published polls, rather than direct swing, the SNP and Labour have the same retention rate of 86% and flow to each other of 9%. Numerically there are more SNP to Labour switchers as there are more SNP voters to start with. A direct flow from Tory to Labour (25%) disproportionally would advantage Labour more in seats where they are in third or even fourth.

So based on that model, the only seats Labour win are Kirkcaldy and East Lothian (currently Alba held) and the SNP take every seat from the Tories.

The problem with reifying these mid-term figures to that extent is that it requires you to take seriously the idea that Labour is on track to poll around 30% across Scotland, which is great by current standards but still historically poor, but also possibly get its best ever results in Banff and Buchan or Berwickshire. It's possible, I guess, I just wouldn't bet on it. It's still the Labour Party, for better or worse.

It's probably better to treat these in an impressionistic way for now. Pissed-off Tory voters are currently flocking to Labour everywhere but it's doubtful all of them will stick around. Some will go back, some might find the Lib Dems friendlier, some will stay home, a few may even decide they like Nicola Sturgeon after all. What anyone smart in SLab will actually be hoping for is that the sense that Labour is a viable alternative again and that the Tories are on the ropes will get more marginal SNP voters to switch or just not bother coming out. It's definitely not happening yet and it may not actually happen at all (I'm not in Scotland anymore so I have even less of an idea of how the 'fight the next election as a de facto referendum' play might work out than usual), but it did only start to happen in 2017 in roughly the last two weeks of the campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

Or to put it at its simplest, there are always some voters who like to back plausible winners.

[Devout Centrist]

Or to put it at its simplest, there are always some voters who like to back plausible winners.

Yes, and I reckon there’s a certain constituency in Scotland that runs headlong towards Labour when they show any signs of life.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Braverman out, Shapps in. The Cameron clones are taking over.

[Torrain]

Braverman out, Shapps in.

Wow.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Smh Big Tofu strikes again

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So...how did PMQs go?

[Torrain]

If reports are true - not sure which part is more shambolic. Truss replacing two of the four ministers inhabiting the Great Offices of State within a week? Or Truss appointing Grant Shapps, a man who has spent the entirety of her premiership trying to bring her down, into the cabinet.

[Cassius]

Was she sacked or what? Not a good move in my opinion if so.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If reports are true - not sure which part is more shambolic. Truss replacing two of the four ministers inhabiting the Great Offices of State within a week? Or Truss appointing Grant Shapps, a man who has spent the entirety of her premiership trying to bring her down, into the cabinet.

Surely two holders of Great Offices of State sacked less than fifty days into a premiership is a record?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Braverman may be the shortest serving Home Secretary since George Nugent-Temple-Grenville, 1st Marquess of Buckingham, who was appointed by Pitt the Younger for three days in 1783.