UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And she was resistant to doing that until the last possible moment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's an obvious flaw with that plan, and that's the need to ensure an unopposed return.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember when the British right was full of figures with ordinal numbers and the word "of" in their names and made metaphors involving things like family silver? I do, and the contrast sort of makes me want to treat old-school aristos with a little more respect.

An absurd and risible bunch, but now that they're gone we do miss them. They turned out to be a stabilizing presence. I suppose there are obvious parallels with the old DCs in Italy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well that would be a bit gamble from Wallace.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Team Truss scraping the bottom of barrel by accusing those out to oust her of being ‘former public schoolboys who can’t get over being beaten by a woman’, before proceeding to name six ringleaders, of whom not one attended public school.

Can’t even sledge properly.

Meanwhile she's just replaced a Chancellor who went to Eton with one who went to Charterhouse!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ahaha the poll was carried out in September, so just after the Mini Budget of Doom but as the markets and the public were still digesting it and polls were showing Labour leads in the higher teens but creeping up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone know why Pendle sticks out in the MRP?

Looks like over-reliance on regional subsamples. Some very odd numbers for e.g. Wales as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1582016962410209282

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There can also be issues when smaller parties did well (or relatively well) but did not win previously: this is why you have elevated Green votes in some seemingly unlikely constituencies that saw large Brexit Party votes last time, and why Finchley & Golders Green is one of the Con holdouts, when in reality Berger's vote was personal and will not transfer to [insert generic LibDem here].

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/OOCThickOfIt/status/1582026490639589378

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Keep in mind Labour had a 39.5 point lead in early 1996:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#1996

1. British polling methodology has improved substantially since the 90s
2. The economy was doing *much* better at the time than it is now

3. They still trailed by 12pts and suffered their heaviest loss since 1906.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/thetyronwilson/status/1582045951493296129

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can believe that some influential Tories might think this, but surely the party as a whole isn't this deluded.

Ordinarily you'd think so, but these days I... I don't know...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He has rather substantial debts of one sort or another and sorting that... problem... out is presumably now a priority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is incredible stuff. I always knew - and said to everyone - that a Truss premiership would be really funny, but this endless rolling shitshow is beyond what I imagined.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who thought "but her emails" would show up here?

Out of the Truss Government, always something new.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I strongly suspect there's more to this than meets the eye.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A certain section of British Politics Twitter has long wished for this country to resemble the advanced East Asian nations more. Well, we have government MPs physically assaulting each other in the Commons, so I guess they've got their wish!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently she managed to miss the vote because she was too busy screaming at the Chief Whip, who she then sacked on the spot. Hahahahahahahaha!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe this is Americabrained of me, but I always had a soft spot for Farron, even though I absolutely get why people had serious issues with him.

He was very unsuited for that role but is still a very interesting parliamentarian and unique- which is increasingly rare.

He is also quite funny!

Yeah, he's a genuinely nice guy, just... not suited to any kind of leadership position. A well meaning crank. I've met a few active Evangelical Anglicans who are much the same.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At this point, is there any way for the UK to have a stable government that lasts more than a handful of months or is it just going to be this sort of chaos over and over until the election finally gets called?

The rather brutal reality is that this is quite clearly the first Parliament with a secure majority out of which it is not possible to form a functional government since the 1900-06 Parliament after Chamberlain blew things up over tariffs. Quite remarkable really. Of course there are different levels of 'not functional': this is off the scale.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could you also count the post 1918 Coupon government as another government elected to a huge majority that collapsed anyway?

In that case it would have been possible for an entirely Conservative government to have been formed after the fall of Lloyd George (one hundred years ago today as it happens!) but the party was collectively set on getting a new mandate of its own and purely its own, independent of Lloyd George: this was the resolution of the famous Carlton Club meeting that was the genesis of the 1922 Committee.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In honour of our new status as Wet Italy after last night’s shenanigans.

The footage of the Cabinet trooping out of No. 10 en masse the other day was so similar to that scene with the faction going to meet Andreotti at the start of the film that I actually laughed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sam Allardyce in as caretaker to avoid relegation?

He's a Labour man which would make that problematic. Maybe Lampard could be persuaded to leave Everton?