UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Cassius]

He's James Fox's son, but in terms of both acting ability and political views he has much more in common with his uncle Edward. Not looks though. Lost out on all counts: sad!

Heresy

[Torrain]

According to Crerar in the Guardian (Observer if we're being pendantic) - Sunak was warned about Zahawi being in significant legal trouble back when he was considering appointing him Chairman, back in October. Senior officials warned that Zahawi's troubles involved a significant amount of cash, and rose beyond a "simple accounting error".

Sunak flatly denies he received such advice - but it's clear that a number of government officials are willing to say otherwise. Could be a problem for the PM, given he said the following at this week's PMQs:

The issues in question occurred before I was Prime Minister. With regard to the appointment of the Minister without Portfolio, the usual appointments process was followed.No issues were raised with me when he was appointed to his current role.

So, depending on the veracity of this story, we may be in for another round of Westminster's favourite game - "did the PM mislead the House?"

[Blair]

Why is everyone briefing that the next election is going to be like 1992?

[MABA 2020]

Why is everyone briefing that the next election is going to be like 1992?

Tories need a reason to get out of bed in the morning, if they admit they've probably already lost the next election then whats the point?

[Torrain]

Zahawi’s been fired:

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Isn't it extremely unusual(to the point of being unheard off) for a minister to be fired before they've been offered a chance to resign ?

[Blair]

Isn't it extremely unusual(to the point of being unheard off) for a minister to be fired before they've been offered a chance to resign ?

It’s not that uncommon- especially on something like this.

[TheTide]

"I know I will be able to count on your support from the backbenches"

Zahawi is a noted supporter of Boris Johnson, so that may be wishful thinking.

[Torrain]

If this really is the last we’re going to see of Zahawi in government, I’d like to take a moment to remember that time he wrote an editorial for the Telegraph endorsing a Johnson comeback, that was published an hour before Johnson withdrew from the contest.

[Pericles]

Rishi looks decisive reading the letter, but weak considering the time it took him to send it.

[Torrain]

Have to wonder who gets pressganged into the role of party chairman now, with only 12 weeks until the local elections. It’s the sort of poisoned chalice no member of the cabinet will want. Maybe there’s some over-eager junior minister who’ll take it?

[TheTide]

Have to wonder who gets pressganged into the role of party chairman now, with only 12 weeks until the local elections. It’s the sort of poisoned chalice no member of the cabinet will want. Maybe there’s some over-eager junior minister who’ll take it?

In all probability, it's like asking who will be the Brian MaWhinney of the 2020s.

[Zinneke]

If this really is the last we’re going to see of Zahawi in government, I’d like to take a moment to remember that time he wrote an editorial for the Telegraph endorsing a Johnson comeback, that was published an hour before Johnson withdrew from the contest.

If I were HMRC I would have taken pity and let him off the hook just for this

[MABA 2020]

I'm amazed Zahawi hasn't been fired yet, it's embarrassing

Better late than never I suppose

[Blair]

His resignation letter was hilariously catty- no apology and a dig at the media.

To think he was once being floated as the next leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

Didn't mean to patronise, apologies - mostly just thinking outloud.

Don't worry, it didn't come across that way.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Isn't it extremely unusual(to the point of being unheard off) for a minister to be fired before they've been offered a chance to resign ?

Yes, but Zahawi has had plenty of opportunities to resign for the good of the party and made it clear at every turn he wasn't going to do that - and judging from his letter to Sunak, Magnus's judgement did nothing to change his mind on that point.

[YL]

Henley becomes the fourth (at least) constituency I've seen speculation about Johnson chicken running to.

[Alcibiades]

Henley becomes the fourth (at least) constituency I've seen speculation about Johnson chicken running to.

Obviously his old seat, but I think it would be far from the safest option. The Lib Dems got over 30% there in 2019. I reckon he’d have to bank on them badly splitting the anti-Tory vote with Labour (who got under 10% there last time) to win in the current climate.

[Torrain]

Bit of evening drama from the "Common Sense Group" (an organised band of "anti-woke" Tory MPs, for those playing the home game), whose WhatsApp group has been leaked to Sky News.

Lots of choice quotes:

We will be slaughtered at the locals and at the GE (general election).

It's like the band on the Titanic. Playing the same tune and ignoring the obvious."

All of the unelected civil servants who are attempting to block the democratically elected government should either be fired or named.

All of this was, of course, triggered by the Group's anger that the government hasn't committed to leaving the ECHR - which we can't do, because it's the legal underpinning of the Good Friday Agreement, and leaving causes all sorts of problems not only for our legal framework, but with tensions between London and the devolved governments.

[YL]

Why is everyone briefing that the next election is going to be like 1992?

On the Labour side: people will always feel they need to avoid complacency, plus that election was really traumatic (even if there's an argument that it was "a good election to lose") hence there is nervousness about it being repeated.  And that nervousness was reinforced by the 2015 disaster.

On the Tory side: people need hope.

Trying to think rationally, I don't think the situations are very similar: in particular the Tories have already played the leader change card and messed it up so badly that they had to do so again.  But there will still be some nervousness until the exit poll/early results/whenever.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This all happened in the runup to the 1997 election as well. Anyway, it is worth observing that at no point after the ousting of Mrs Thatcher were the Tories more than 10pts behind in a single poll. Usually the polls were very tight, and the Tories would tend to lead in at least one each month. 1992 was not what folk memory insists it was.

[Lumine]

1992 comparisons are made more absurd by the fact that Sunak is no John Major, whose personal appeal at the time was a plus (and even at the lowest point later on, he still polled better than his party and would-be successors). I mean, can anyone imagine Sunak campaigning in the soapbox?

It also doesn't help that Starmer, unlike Kinnock, is not damaged goods - not yet anyway, and likely not by the time of the election - on account of having been LOTO for too long or having the tabloids mercilessly tear him apart on a regular basis.

[CumbrianLefty]

At the end of the day, the "this is 1992 all over again" cope is based on one actual fact and one only - that Starmer's personal ratings are a lot less impressive than Blair's pre-1997.

But arguably, that just shows how Mr Tony was an unrepeatable one-off.

SKS is also clearly doing better than Kinnock was in the *actual* pre-1992 period, and in *certain* respects the Tories are currently doing worse than before the 1997 GE never mind 1992.

[TheTide]

At the end of the day, the "this is 1992 all over again" cope is based on one actual fact and one only - that Starmer's personal ratings are a lot less impressive than Blair's pre-1997.

But arguably, that just shows how Mr Tony was an unrepeatable one-off.

SKS is also clearly doing better than Kinnock was in the *actual* pre-1992 period, and in *certain* respects the Tories are currently doing worse than before the 1997 GE never mind 1992.

The other point to make is that there has already been a 1992 style election during the course of this government, and it was 2015.