UK General Discussion: Rishecession
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1300 on: October 17, 2022, 09:29:03 AM »
Quote from: Torrain on October 17, 2022, 09:25:48 AM
Labour lead is holding/building:

Word on the street is that R&W have a similarly lopsided set of figures in the poll they’re releasing at 17.00.

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1301 on: October 17, 2022, 09:34:13 AM »

Save that for an hour-&-a-1/2 from now:
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1302 on: October 17, 2022, 09:37:05 AM »
40+% Labour lead incoming?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1303 on: October 17, 2022, 09:37:58 AM »

How would that look in a seat projection??
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Torrain
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« Reply #1304 on: October 17, 2022, 09:39:21 AM »
The Day Today feels about the right level of surreal for today. Pretty sure we’re only a few days away from ‘some sort of drubbing incident’.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1305 on: October 17, 2022, 09:41:16 AM »
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1306 on: October 17, 2022, 09:42:10 AM »

It would still have the SNP nearly sweeping all of Scotland, probably Tongue
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1307 on: October 17, 2022, 09:42:21 AM »

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Torrain
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« Reply #1308 on: October 17, 2022, 09:45:28 AM »
“The lady’s not for turning up” - Keir ‘dad-joke’ Starmer in his UQ speech.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1309 on: October 17, 2022, 09:45:42 AM »

I just plugged it in to Electoral Calculus - 56% for Labour and 16% for the Tories. It gave the latter *0* seats. And that's without tactical voting enabled.

Obviously no swings are uniform, but it would be an absolute bloodbath. That Starmer meme map posted above would not be far off.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1310 on: October 17, 2022, 09:46:41 AM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on October 17, 2022, 09:41:16 AM


Maybe that "urgent business" is writing her resignation statement tbf.
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Wiswylfen
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« Reply #1311 on: October 17, 2022, 09:46:49 AM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on October 17, 2022, 09:20:42 AM
Quote from: eadmund on October 17, 2022, 08:42:02 AM
Anyone know why Pendle sticks out in the MRP?

Looks like over-reliance on regional subsamples. Some very odd numbers for e.g. Wales as well.

I thought so at first but also in the North West there's Labour winning Macclesfield and South Ribble, and within 5 points of gaining Penrith and the Border. Romford but not Cities of London and Westminster.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1312 on: October 17, 2022, 09:50:18 AM »
Quote from: CumbrianLefty on October 17, 2022, 09:46:41 AM
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on October 17, 2022, 09:41:16 AM


Maybe that "urgent business" is writing her resignation statement tbf.

"Well, I gave it a try. It didn't work. Bye then."
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afleitch
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« Reply #1313 on: October 17, 2022, 09:51:49 AM »
Quote from: eadmund on October 17, 2022, 09:46:49 AM
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on October 17, 2022, 09:20:42 AM
Quote from: eadmund on October 17, 2022, 08:42:02 AM
Anyone know why Pendle sticks out in the MRP?

Looks like over-reliance on regional subsamples. Some very odd numbers for e.g. Wales as well.

I thought so at first but also in the North West there's Labour winning Macclesfield and South Ribble, and within 5 points of gaining Penrith and the Border. Romford but not Cities of London and Westminster.

As seems to be case in polling, is every part of the country and every part of the electorate swings one way, then MRP struggles somewhat.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1314 on: October 17, 2022, 09:53:02 AM »
Well, one minor plus of this whole trainwreck is we were never subjected to a Liz goes to Ukraine moment.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1315 on: October 17, 2022, 09:54:11 AM »
There can also be issues when smaller parties did well (or relatively well) but did not win previously: this is why you have elevated Green votes in some seemingly unlikely constituencies that saw large Brexit Party votes last time, and why Finchley & Golders Green is one of the Con holdouts, when in reality Berger's vote was personal and will not transfer to [insert generic LibDem here].
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Blair
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« Reply #1316 on: October 17, 2022, 10:01:09 AM »
The Prime Minister is not under a desk.

Words just uttered by Penny Mordaunt in the House of Commons.
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Blair
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« Reply #1317 on: October 17, 2022, 10:01:52 AM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on October 17, 2022, 09:41:16 AM


Detained is a very funny phrase.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1318 on: October 17, 2022, 10:02:33 AM »
Quote from: Blair on October 17, 2022, 10:01:09 AM
The Prime Minister is not under a desk.

Words just uttered by Penny Mordaunt in the House of Commons.
Delivered with the same solemnity that she used to proclaim the King. We’re through the looking glass now.
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1319 on: October 17, 2022, 10:02:51 AM »
Quote from: Blair on October 17, 2022, 10:01:09 AM
The Prime Minister is not under a desk.

Words just uttered by Penny Mordaunt in the House of Commons.

The Prime Minister is very definitely under a desk.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1320 on: October 17, 2022, 10:03:39 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on October 17, 2022, 10:02:51 AM
Quote from: Blair on October 17, 2022, 10:01:09 AM
The Prime Minister is not under a desk.

Words just uttered by Penny Mordaunt in the House of Commons.

The Prime Minister is very definitely under a desk.

Yes, but it is a metaphorical desk or a real desk? Both is possible at this point, IMO.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1321 on: October 17, 2022, 10:04:33 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on October 17, 2022, 10:02:51 AM
Quote from: Blair on October 17, 2022, 10:01:09 AM
The Prime Minister is not under a desk.

Words just uttered by Penny Mordaunt in the House of Commons.

The Prime Minister is very definitely under a desk.
That’s nonsense. She’s clearly detained inside a cupboard, after Gove and Sunak broke into Downing Street.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1322 on: October 17, 2022, 10:06:15 AM »
BBC News notifications in 2022:
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1323 on: October 17, 2022, 10:08:15 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2022, 10:11:47 AM by Torrain »
Lmao:

She's actually going to show up at the end of this UQ - expecting a full three minutes of MPs barracking if she does.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1324 on: October 17, 2022, 10:15:23 AM »
Hoyle just called Mordaunt Prime Minister 💀
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