UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[brucejoel99]

Well, this is intriguing:

https://twitter.com/jamesgooderson/status/1581877024653684736
Hunt will be delivering the statement in the Commons.

[brucejoel99]

To feel a need to do this on such short notice must mean that they're scared sh*tless of the opening of the markets:

https://twitter.com/georgewparker/status/1581885158365753344

[Zinneke]

Did Conservatopia change his signature?

I'm glad at least the comments under the Telegraph articles remain pro-Trussonomics.

[Cassius]

Here they come with the excuses for bottling it (delaying the inevitable and prolonging the agony as with Johnson).

[Torrain]

Aye - feels like it could go either way this morning. Either Hunt stabilises the situation, and Truss limps on for weeks longer, or the rebels double-down, and the bleeding of support continues apace.

[CumbrianLefty]

When Truss goes there will surely have to be a general election called won't there?

People keep saying this, but nobody can *force* a new Tory PM to call one.

[Torrain]

This feels like a more sensible policy, but makes Truss look ridiculous, again. She and her surrogates have been attacking Labour for supporting a six-month (rather than two year) cap for the past fortnight, and it was her go-to attack line at the last PMQs. Now she’s adopted their position.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1581945801479446528

[Middle-aged Europe]

This feels like a more sensible policy, but makes Truss look ridiculous, again. She and her surrogates have been attacking Labour for supporting a six-month (rather than two year) cap for the past fortnight, and it was her go-to attack line at the last PMQs. Now she’s adopted their position.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1581945801479446528

She merely followed her beliefs. It's just that her beliefs turned out to be wrong.

[Torrain]

Hunt junks all tax cuts other than the NI cut in a televised address. Things seem to be pretty rough behind the scenes, as the Commons Speaker has made a rare exception to the rule that new legislation must be announced in the House first.

The rumours that a pension provider was at serious risk of going under unless the government calmed the markets seem more plausible now.

[Blair]

The fact that they’re scaling the energy price support really shows how deep the hole must be.

[afleitch]

The fact that they’re scaling the energy price support really shows how deep the hole must be.

The fact it was for two years, rather than something more flexible to falling prices was the first misstep. It was just superceded by other events.

[Torrain]

Angela Richardson is MP no.4 calling for Truss to go, during a TimesRadio interview:
"I just don't think that it's tenable that she can stay in her position any longer. And I'm very sad to have to say that."

[Torrain]

Tory MP Mark Garnier endorses an early election, saying it needs to happen "soon":
"Fundamentally I believe we can’t expect people to put up with the psychodrama of the Conservative party indefinitely."

Feels like the bottom is really starting to fall out now. Just an incredibly febrile day - to steal the most overused word of the final months of the Johnson premiership.

[CumbrianLefty]

But they simply aren't going to call an election if they are aeons behind in the polls.

[afleitch]

But they simply aren't going to call an election if they are aeons behind in the polls.

The polls are, probably as bad as they could ever get. A 1997 rout is preferable to a 'break the model' level of destruction. So yeah, they still have time on their side.

[CumbrianLefty]

But they simply aren't going to call an election if they are aeons behind in the polls.

The polls are, probably as bad as they could ever get. A 1997 rout is preferable to a 'break the model' level of destruction. So yeah, they still have time on their side.

You would certainly *think* so, but.....

[afleitch]

But they simply aren't going to call an election if they are aeons behind in the polls.

The polls are, probably as bad as they could ever get. A 1997 rout is preferable to a 'break the model' level of destruction. So yeah, they still have time on their side.

You would certainly *think* so, but.....

Yes.

As I mentioned in the other place

We are currently the same distance away from the final possible GE date as late January 1995 was for the Major government; a period where they were polling at their worst. The average (polls 15 days before to after that date) was CON 25, LAB 57, LD 14 compared to 24-50-10 with Politico today.

So it's bad.

In terms of polling averages, not just individual polls from back in the days where you had to wait for them, this is probably the worst polling for the Tories in their history.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581978257628753921?s=20&t=kGe3ABHYUr9O...

[Torrain]

Labour have been granted an Urgent Question, to try and summon Truss back to the Commons to explain the firing of Kwarteng. Contrary to tradition, Truss isn't going herself.

Instead she's sending Penny Mordaunt - giving Mordaunt what might be her last gift-wrapped opportunity to set out her own stall.

Even wilder, while Truss has made excuses to avoid the UQ debate, she's then expected to immediately pitch up in the chamber to sit next to Hunt while he lays out economic plan.

[Person Man]

Exactly how bad is this? Is this as bad as it ever has been politically in the UK for a while? They have basically become Italy 2.0.

[Wiswylfen]

Anyone know why Pendle sticks out in the MRP?

[Tintrlvr]

An Irish headline from a decade and a half ago comes to mind.

I suppose the Tories can take comfort from the fact that Fianna Fail somehow came back.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well up to a point, they have never been close to regaining "pre-crash" levels of support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone know why Pendle sticks out in the MRP?

Looks like over-reliance on regional subsamples. Some very odd numbers for e.g. Wales as well.

[Torrain]

Labour lead is holding/building:
https://mobile.twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400
Word on the street is that R&W have a similarly lopsided set of figures in the poll they’re releasing at 17.00.