What seems to be giving the Republicans a small boost in the polls the last two weeks?

[sg0508]

Some of the races, many of which we thought were over seem to be tightening up just a bit, whether it be on the Senate or gubernatorial front.  What do you think could be causing this, or is this really just inside my head? Even the WA Senate and NY governor races seem to be a big closer now than one may expect.

Thoughts?

[soundchaser]

To explain those two polls you’re specifically thinking of:

Trafalgar makes their numbers up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

To explain those two polls you’re specifically thinking of:

Trafalgar makes their numbers up.

Trafalgar heavily unskews until they get a top line result that “makes sense”. It seems more like a pundits prediction rather than a poll

[pbrower2a]

Undecided voters tend to drift toward the eventual loser.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Undecided voters tend to drift toward the eventual loser.

Fetterman and Hobbs have refused to Debate their opponents too the swing voters are females not Men

I expect Fetterman to win with Shapiro but I was disappointed in him not debating Oz

Hobbs may lose Lake cuts in her females base where Oz doesn't cut into Fetterman females base

But they're all within 4 pts MOE the only person that won landslide in PA is Bob Casey Jr he wins by 6/9 pts all the time

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1566145224392548355?cxt=HHwWhoC96...

[Xing]

The Trafalgar polls in NY and WA are among the worst polls we’ve seen yet, and that’s saying something. If there were really a shift among “working class voters” big enough to put NY and WA within 5%, Walker would be up by double digits in GA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would be more inclined to give Cahaly's statement some credence if we hear the same thing from any non-Republican pollsters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1566145224392548355?cxt=HHwWhoC96...

I have to admit as a Dem myself who will go to college in a few years and will likely get student loans, this makes, Biden’s decision makes me very disappointed even if it has the right intentions. Firstly, it’s very unfair to those who really did their all just to pay off their student loans, and it’s doesn’t  address the underlying problem of college being expensive.

To me, it seems like the divide on his actions tends to be along those to have student loans (themselves or their kids) and those who don’t. This may be anecdotal but a lot of the interviews I’ve seen have a surprising number of not only Ds who disagree but Rs who at least have mixed feelings.

[Minnesota Mike]

The zone has been flooded by polls from one particular right wing pollster.

[wbrocks67]

The zone has been flooded by polls from one particular right wing pollster.

This. No offense to the OP but we've barely gotten any polls the last 2 weeks besides Traf and Emerson. This thread is just so unnecessary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Don't read too much into it. We'll get more polls from firms other than Trafalgar after Labor Day. I don't necessarily know what they'll say, but they'll at least give more insight in some way.

The Trafalgar polls in NY and WA are among the worst polls we’ve seen yet, and that’s saying something. If there were really a shift among “working class voters” big enough to put NY and WA within 5%, Walker would be up by double digits in GA.

Robert Cahaly is talking out his ass, as usual. He seems to be under the impression that only Trafalgar knows what's going on (though to be fair that may be the case in some specific places like the Rust belt-which ironically their polls all gave pretty decent results for Democrats) even though Biden's approval ratings and the generic congressional ballot would surely be reflecting this too, and they continue to be stable, if not increasing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1566145224392548355?cxt=HHwWhoC96...

I have to admit as a Dem myself who will go to college in a few years and will likely get student loans, this makes, Biden’s decision makes me very disappointed even if it has the right intentions. Firstly, it’s very unfair to those who really did their all just to pay off their student loans, and it’s doesn’t  address the underlying problem of college being expensive.

To me, it seems like the divide on his actions tends to be along those to have student loans (themselves or their kids) and those who don’t. This may be anecdotal but a lot of the interviews I’ve seen have a surprising number of not only Ds who disagree but Rs who at least have mixed feelings.

I can understand the feeling of resentment towards this policy, but that always seems to happen whether it's this, DACA, or affordable housing there is also some subset of people who feel that because they suffered through something others should have to as well. It's unfortunate that they didn't get to take advantage of a program or policy, but it isn't really conducive to a sustainable society which these policies benefit in the bigger picture. My mom didn't get anything from the child tax credit since me and my sister were way past 18 when it was put into action, but she recognized the good it would do to others. This seems to be a uniquely American problem that enables us to go so long without reforming any of our society's ills.

I'm glad to see that the Biden administration is making a calculation based on the fact that ignoring systemic problems just because some people are going to be resentful over it is not always the right thing to do. If this is going to cause somewhat a backlash it's probably more worthwhile than him sitting on his hands and ignoring the student loan issue entirely. That decision probably would have been had even more of a net negative to it. Also, the forgiveness he is proposing isn't even that all-encompassing. Many Americans will still have debts to pay off, just 10 or 20 thousand dollars less of it.

[jamestroll]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1566145224392548355?cxt=HHwWhoC96...

Trafalgar has been eerily accurate in the midwest, but I somehow doubt that student loan forgiveness has made WA Sen and NY Gov out of the blue competitive. If they are competitive, there are many reasons that hold more relevance than student loan forgiveness. Also, the numbers in WI and GA would not make sense if NY-Gov is suddenly competitive over student loan forgiveness.

Though the student loan forgiveness is a net negative, even if slight, for the Democrats.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The Democratic lead in the generic ballot is increasing

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2022/national/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1566145224392548355?cxt=HHwWhoC96...

Trafalgar has been eerily accurate in the midwest, but I somehow doubt that student loan forgiveness has made WA Sen and NY Gov out of the blue competitive. If they are competitive, there are many reasons that hold more relevance than student loan forgiveness. Also, the numbers in WI and GA would not make sense if NY-Gov is suddenly competitive over student loan forgiveness.

Though the student loan forgiveness is a net negative, even if slight, for the Democrats.

Lol it's called Bankruptcy and Charge offs if everyone paid their bills we wouldn't have Bankruptcy, the interest is made up towards the middle class or rich when they pay their student loans, credit cards and pay day loans

I owe pay day loans and haven't paid them

The Bankruptcy Reform Bill charges off all unsecured debts, Student loans,mortgages and car loans are Secured Debt that's because they are secured by the creditor

Bankruptcy is a Federal statue that says you don't have to pay your state commerce bills

When you Die it's charged off anyways

[ProgressiveModerate]

-snip-

I can understand the feeling of resentment towards this policy, but that always seems to happen whether it's this, DACA, or affordable housing there is also some subset of people who feel that because they suffered through something others should have to as well. It's unfortunate that they didn't get to take advantage of a program or policy, but it isn't really conducive to a sustainable society which these policies benefit in the bigger picture. My mom didn't get anything from the child tax credit since me and my sister were way past 18 when it was put into action, but she recognized the good it would do to others. This seems to be a uniquely American problem that enables us to go so long without reforming any of our society's ills.

I'm glad to see that the Biden administration is making a calculation based on the fact that ignoring systemic problems just because some people are going to be resentful over it is not always the right thing to do. If this is going to cause somewhat a backlash it's probably more worthwhile than him sitting on his hands and ignoring the student loan issue entirely. That decision probably would have been had even more of a net negative to it. Also, the forgiveness he is proposing isn't even that all-encompassing. Many Americans will still have debts to pay off, just 10 or 20 thousand dollars less of it.

I think this is a fair argument to make, but I think there is a difference. To some degree, people can get to choose how much of their income they want to dedicate to paying off student loan debts whereas with something such as DACA or Motherhood, there's no equivalent argument. You're a mother when you're a mother and you immigrate here when you immigrate here. Say you have person A and B and they graduate college at the same time with the same debt. Person A makes financial sacrifices to pay of their student loans ASAP while person B just never made it as big of a priority, it doesn't seem right person B should get relief while person A doesn't, especially if paying off their student debts may have prevented person A from investing in stocks of realestate for a long time.

The argument Republicans are making that "it's not fair to be helping out the educated elites" isn't really fair sense folks such as farmers get help from the US government all the time and no one complains about that because they offer society food. Having educated people in our society who are able to do things like get us to the moon and keep us safe is also very important but the impact is less direct so it can be harder for many folks to see the importance.

I do think this speaks to a larger problem though of folks who go to get degrees that frankly won't really help them personally in life or contribute to society at any greater level. If college were free, then people would be able to learn things for the sake of it, but since it's not, I'm really shocked at the number of folks getting degrees in some sort of liberal arts or smtg.

To me, this just feels like Biden trying to do *anything* to keep a certain cohort of people happy. I understand greater action that addresses the root problems likely require congress, but this executive order just seemed sloppy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are already curbing their Student loans they are going to online schooling instead of going to Ivy League schools the reason why they have it tuition of 50K instead of 20K they offer work study as a way to pay off tuition but some don't want to work while going to college so they go to online school, the norm once if you go to Grad school isn't going to classroom, now, the norm is online but of course undergrad Young people want to get experience living away from home and many parents take out loans in undergrad for their kids, but in Grad school parents cut you off when you that old

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also idk if this is just me, but a lot of R leaning pollsters rarely do national polls. If anything, the GCB has improved for Dems these past 2 weeks but R leaning pollsters releasing tons of state level polls had given Rs a bump in a lot of state level averages.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Also idk if this is just me, but a lot of R leaning pollsters rarely do national polls. If anything, the GCB has improved for Dems these past 2 weeks but R leaning pollsters releasing tons of state level polls had given Rs a bump in a lot of state level averages.

It's also worth keeping in mind there were a few "too good to be true" polls with Fetterman, Kelly, and others leading by ridiculous margins (10-15 points) that were never going to happen, so part of this is that those polls are now getting moved out of averages and returning things to something much closer to reality.

[Ogre Mage]

If Cahaly actually believes that Trafalgar poll of the WA Senate race, he is ignorant of Washington State politics.

[wesmoorenerd]

If Cahaly actually believes that Trafalgar poll of the WA Senate race, he is ignorant of Washington State politics.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1566145224392548355?cxt=HHwWhoC96...

Trafalgar has been eerily accurate in the midwest, but I somehow doubt that student loan forgiveness has made WA Sen and NY Gov out of the blue competitive. If they are competitive, there are many reasons that hold more relevance than student loan forgiveness. Also, the numbers in WI and GA would not make sense if NY-Gov is suddenly competitive over student loan forgiveness.

Though the student loan forgiveness is a net negative, even if slight, for the Democrats.

No, it's not. Every single poll taken at this point has had it being net positive in approval.

[DabbingSanta]

Well, I would argue that Dark Brandon's speech calling 50% of Americans fascist domestic terrorists while posing in front of a satanic red back drop probably will not help the Democrats win anyone over..

[wbrocks67]

Well, I would argue that Dark Brandon's speech calling 50% of Americans fascist domestic terrorists while posing in front of a satanic red back drop probably will not help the Democrats win anyone over..

lol you tried it sis

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, I would argue that Dark Brandon's speech calling 50% of Americans fascist domestic terrorists while posing in front of a satanic red back drop probably will not help the Democrats win anyone over..

You may wish to consider some basic courses in arithmetic and reading comprehension.  Nowhere in the speech did Biden call anyone fascist or a domestic terrorist.  Read the transcript if you don't believe me.  He called out MAGA Republicans as follows:

Too much of what’s happening in our country today is not normal. Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic.

Now, I want to be very clear, very clear up front. Not every Republican, not even the majority of Republicans, are MAGA Republicans. Not every Republican embraces their extreme ideology. I know, because I’ve been able to work with these mainstream Republicans.

"MAGA Republicans" are nowhere near 50% of Americans.