What are some early indicators for the midterms?

[Tekken_Guy]

What are some early things to watch for with the midterms?

[soundchaser]

How early are you talking? The night of, I’d say VA-2 and NY-18 are pretty good indicators — if the Dems are holding both of those, they’ve got a decent shot at keeping the House.

[Tekken_Guy]

How early are you talking? The night of, I’d say VA-2 and NY-18 are pretty good indicators — if the Dems are holding both of those, they’ve got a decent shot at keeping the House.

I mean election results, yeah.

[Xing]

While disclaimers about the early vote apply, I’d watch FL-SEN. If it’s called at closing time for Rubio, that’s good for Republicans. If it looks at all close, that’s a very good sign for Democrats.

[S019]

I agree with Florida given how quickly it counts. Several east coast seats will also be important to watch (NJ-07, PA-07, PA-08, VA-02, VA-07, NC-13, FL-27, NH-01, NH-02).

[It’s so Joever]

Check any rural county in Kentucky or Indiana at closing time. Once 5% at most is in, see how it is compared to the 2020 margins. If it is more Democratic it will be a historic midterm and Biden is FDR. If it’s more Republican, it will be the worst election for Dems in years and they will be reduced to double digits in house seat count.

[politicallefty]

How early are you talking? The night of, I’d say VA-2 and NY-18 are pretty good indicators — if the Dems are holding both of those, they’ve got a decent shot at keeping the House.

Virginia is definitely a state to watch, particularly with respect to VA-02. I think it's extremely unlikely that Democrats hold the House if they lose VA-02. I'd also be looking at some of the other races within the state to see if there could be trends. In 2018, there were early signs in Virginia that the suburbs were in full revolt against Republicans.

I wouldn't say NY is good for early signs considering polls don't close until 9PM EST.

[Ferguson97]

NJ-07 and NY-18 on the east coast.

I expect Malinowski to lose, but if he keeps it close then it's likely a neutral environment. And if he somehow wins... Democrats probably keep the House.

[MT Treasurer]

Margins in NH-SEN & NC-SEN. If the former is even remotely close, Republicans already have the Senate and the House. If the latter looks like it’s truly in play (or Republicans seem only very narrowly favored), Democrats have a very good chance of holding both the House and the Senate.

[Roll Roons]

IN-01 and VA-02 will be the main ones to watch early on.

[pbrower2a]

1. Flips in special elections. Just look at Alaska.

2. High approval ratings for incumbents in one party and low in another for incumbents.

3. Unlikely close races in unlikely places.

4. Anomalies.

The big anomaly this time is that Donald Trump still casts a large shadow over American public life. This is unusual for a defeated nominee, as most retreat from electoral campaigns.     

[windjammer]

Margins in NH-SEN & NC-SEN. If the former is even remotely close, Republicans already have the Senate and the House. If the latter looks like it’s truly in play (or Republicans seem only very narrowly favored), Democrats have a very good chance of holding both the House and the Senate.

I wouldn't Say this would be enough to know if democrats have a chance to hold the house with the NC results. North Carolina Can be often close After all

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is the first Battleground up it's not over Gov or Sen race by a long shot if we win FL we probably keep the H

[Hope For A New Era]

Aside from election night, one thing I've been watching lately is YouTube comments. I'm not sure who started doing that on here, was it Forumlurker? Anyway, I'm curious to see how it holds up. It gave me some faith in late 2020 leading up to the runoffs when I saw that the commenters on Georgia ads were overwhelmingly for Ossoff and Warnock.

Most are pretty inconclusive right now, with one notable exception being that comments on OH-SEN ads seem to be very strongly pro-Ryan. Of course, in a state as red as Ohio enthusiasm can only do so much, but it's still interesting. Ryan's ads are surprisingly "Trumpy" for a Democrat - honestly, they seem pretty played-up and pandering to me (they remind me of when Claire McCaskill tried to pretend she supported a border wall), but apparently Ohio voters disagree.

[libertpaulian]

Look here in IN-01. It's got a mix of everything...urban areas, suburbs, small towns, rural areas, high concentrations of minorities, white working-class voters, suburban moderate whites, colleges, everything.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Look here in IN-01. It's got a mix of everything...urban areas, suburbs, small towns, rural areas, high concentrations of minorities, white working-class voters, suburban moderate whites, colleges, everything.

What's your prediction?

[Torie]

NJ-07 and NY-18 on the east coast.

I expect Malinowski to lose, but if he keeps it close then it's likely a neutral environment. And if he somehow wins... Democrats probably keep the House.

I think if House control is the question, NY-19 is a better tea leaf than NY-18. NY-18 is to the Left of the median. Another one to look at is NY-01. However, NY polls close at 9 pm. Earlier tea leaves would be OH-01 and IN-01 and NH-01, along with VA-02 as mentioned. And then there is NC-13. And the two Dem held rust belt seats in NE PA.

Addendum: Add OH-09 and NJ-07. If the Dems appear to be holding NJ-07 and OH-09, while the Pubs lose OH-01, then the Pubs are in trouble. The Pubs need to seem to be in trouble in seats marked as leaning their way, for the alarm bells to ring.

Below is a list of seats deemed leaning to the Pubs from RRH.

[wbrocks67]

NJ-07 and NY-18 on the east coast.

I expect Malinowski to lose, but if he keeps it close then it's likely a neutral environment. And if he somehow wins... Democrats probably keep the House.

I think if House control is the question, NY-19 is a better tea leaf than NY-18. NY-18 is to the Left of the median. Another one to look at is NY-01. However, NY polls close at 9 pm. Earlier tea leaves would be OH-01 and IN-01 and NH-01, along with VA-02 as mentioned. And then there is NC-13. And the two Dem held rust belt seats in NE PA.

The thing with PA though is that I feel like we never really start getting results until closer to 8:30-9PM and the majority after that, so not sure how fast results will come in for those.

[It’s so Joever]

Aside from election night, one thing I've been watching lately is YouTube comments. I'm not sure who started doing that on here, was it Forumlurker? Anyway, I'm curious to see how it holds up. It gave me some faith in late 2020 leading up to the runoffs when I saw that the commenters on Georgia ads were overwhelmingly for Ossoff and Warnock.

Most are pretty inconclusive right now, with one notable exception being that comments on OH-SEN ads seem to be very strongly pro-Ryan. Of course, in a state as red as Ohio enthusiasm can only do so much, but it's still interesting. Ryan's ads are surprisingly "Trumpy" for a Democrat - honestly, they seem pretty played-up and pandering to me (they remind me of when Claire McCaskill tried to pretend she supported a border wall), but apparently Ohio voters disagree.

I did use that. I use the “YouTube” comment method to gauge polling error, not necessarily support level.

[libertpaulian]

Look here in IN-01. It's got a mix of everything...urban areas, suburbs, small towns, rural areas, high concentrations of minorities, white working-class voters, suburban moderate whites, colleges, everything.

What's your prediction?

Mrvan wins by less than 2020 but comfortably. He can probably keep this seat through the decade, even if Biden gets another term and 2026 is another 2014.

[jamestroll]

VA-02, VA-07, VA-10.

In a world in which Luria is way down, Spanberger is trailing, and Wexton is in a close race the Democrats are going to have a very bad night. Wexton could even lose under this situation.

In a world in which Spanberger leads, Wexton leads by a healthy margin, and Luria is in a toss up race would be a great night for the Democrats.

of course, if the former happens, imagine the insane twitter discourse on Virginia.