Dysfunction: America From 2022 On

[VirginiaAaron]

DYSFUNCTION

America From 2022 On

It was a rainy evening in New York City. 10 years as Fox’s election night point person still didn’t prepare him for the firestorm that would be Election 2022. But still, a wave of calm always fell upon him as the camera person yelled the final countdown before hitting the air. No one on the set knew how the night would unfold, but Laura Ingraham was telling her fellow on-air personalities that The Donald would throw his hat in the ring before the clock strikes 12. He takes a deep breath, walks onto set, and takes his seat next to Shannon Bream. Bream looked up and smiled, “Evening, Bret.” Always friendly but sometimes distant, the two shared a unique relationship as two of the final bricks of truth at Fox as the network was filled with Trump sycophancy, election lies, Russian propaganda, and still, Tucker Carlson at the center of it all. The week prior, the two anchors privately pleaded to network CEOs to not feature Carlson in any of the election night coverage. An intense back-and-forth ended with a 2-to-5 minute check-in with Carlson after every set of polls closed. A win for truth? Far from it, but certainly not as bad as they thought it would be.

An election night brief from Fox’s election night decision desk head, Arnon Mishkin, showed a high-turnout midterm dominated by inflation, abortion, and the big I-word: indictment. Three weeks before the election, in an October surprise of sorts, Attorney General Merrick Garland announced that the DOJ would be indicting former President Trump on violations of the Espionage Act, among others. In a scathing address after Garland’s decision, President Biden, at a rally for Maine Governor Janet Mills, called Trump a “threat to democracy and our very way of life.” President Biden’s approval had rebounded from his summer low of nearly 38% to now just 44%, a few points higher than President Trump’s approval of around 42% in 2018, and a point lower than President Obama’s 45% in 2010. The Republican base was full of rage as calls for defunding the DOJ and FBI increased within party ranks. No longer was it known extremists like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz calling for a change in federal law enforcement. #3 in House Republican leadership, Elise Stefanik called for not just an indictment of Hunter Biden, but compared President Biden to Josef Stalin, hunting down opponents and shutting them down. Polls showed enhanced turnout for Republicans to support Trump, and Democrats to hold him accountable. But that wasn’t the only October surprise.

During a lengthy interview with Maria Bartiromo, Kevin McCarthy announced that if Republicans took control of both the House and Senate that they would push for a nationwide abortion ban with exceptions for rape and danger to the mother’s life. Mitch McConnell didn’t take the news well. In a heated call, McConnell told McCarthy that their chances of taking back both houses of Congress were gone. GOP infighting, Trump’s indictment, and a disapproved-of abortion policy made a midterm that should’ve been a bruising for Democrats give both parties equal ground.

ELECTION NIGHT

“Good evening and welcome to Fox News Channel’s coverage of Election 2022. I’m Bret Baier, anchor of Special Report.”


“And I’m Shannon Bream, anchor of Fox News Sunday.”

Bream wasn’t used to co-anchoring election night with Baier. Usually, that seat was occupied by Martha MacCallum. However, network executives made the decision to demote MacCallum to panelist after her show began losing the ratings war to Newsmax.

Meanwhile, down in D.C., the President was watching CNN. Never a nervous man, the 79-year-old Commander-in-Chief was cautiously optimistic that his party had picked themselves up, took control of the narrative and hoped that it would be enough for his party to stop the bleeding in the House and hopefully take more seats in the Senate.

In Florida, former President Trump was finishing writing a press release urging “all MAGA patriots” to vote before polls close in their states. Typically he’d write out one of these messages on Truth Social but after it was removed from all major app stores, the social media platform went defunct. However, the former President wouldn’t be glued to the television like he had been so many days after leaving office. Trump would be busy in closed-door meetings with lawyers, what little were left, about what they could do to stop the DOJ from charging him.

Back in New York, the decision desk was prompting the two anchors with the first calls of the night.

“The polls have closed in a few states on the east coast and we have some projections to make, starting with Indiana Senator Todd Young being re-elected. He easily defeats his Democratic opponent, Thomas McDermott.”

“Meanwhile, we’re also able to call the Kentucky Senate race for incumbent Republican Rand Paul, he defeats former State Representative and 2020 candidate for Senate, Charles Booker. Further south, we’re able to call that Senator Tim Scott is easily re-elected. Scott, whose 2024 stock raised after the success of his book has been called a potential successor to Trump, should he not run in 2024.”

“Democrats have scored their first win of the night in Vermont, where Congressman Peter Welch has been elected to the U.S. Senate to succeed the veteran Senator Pat Leahy. Meanwhile, the Georgia Senate race is too early to call where Senator Raphael Warnock is facing off against controversial former football player and Celebrity Apprentice contestant Herschel Walker.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, fearing that would remain his title, was watching the returns cautiously. Loss in Georgia would make the path to 51 all the harder. The initial exit polls weren’t promising. Feeling his loss on the grip of the party, the pressure was on for the Kentucky Senator. That very morning he read in Politico that if Republicans do not win control of the Senate, or even gain a single seat, a group of 10 Republican Senators were banding together to oust McConnell as party leader. Trying to get his mind off the situation, he sat on his sofa watching the returns. Tired of hearing about the implications of the Georgia Senate race, he flipped to CNN.

“A key race alert at this hour as we turn to Nia-Malika Henderson with early calls in the various governors’ races. Nia?”

“Yes, Wolf, some very important calls at this hour. Starting in Vermont where three-term incumbent Phil Scott has been re-elected for a fourth term, easily defeating his Democratic opponent in this traditionally Democratic stronghold. And in South Carolina, it is too early to call between Governor Henry McMaster and former Democratic Congressman Joe Cunningham, who was ousted by now-Congresswoman Nancy Mace in 2020. However, Governor McMaster leads in this traditionally conservative state.”

“Now turning to all-important Georgia. One of, if not, the closest governors’ race in 2018, Georgia proves to solidify its status as an important battleground for both parties. A rematch of 2018, Governor Brian Kemp fresh off easily defeating a challenge from a Trump-endorsed candidate is facing former State Representative Stacey Abrams. Abrams has been behind in the polls but hopes to do what she could not in 2018: get the most votes. We’ll see if she will, it is too early to call.”

**Below are the races that have been called so far. Some of the House calls might be premature but I also don’t want to be posting about 2022 for the next month so some of the projections may be expedited for the House. If you have any questions about events that transpired between now and November that I did not address, please feel free to comment below and I’ll respond ASAP. I’m really excited to be doing another timeline and I hope I’m more polished this time than I have been in the past.**

EDIT: added right link for House calls

[CascadianIndy]

Quality writing like this in a new timeline on the What-Ifs subforum has been sorely missed for quite a while now. Looking forward to how this turns out!

[VirginiaAaron]

Quality writing like this in a new timeline on the What-Ifs subforum has been sorely missed for quite a while now. Looking forward to how this turns out!

Thank you so much, that's very kind of you. I'm looking forward to kicking this into high gear, I've got some interesting plans for it and I hope everyone's happy with it.

[VirginiaAaron]

7:30 TO 8:00 POLL CLOSINGS

“Welcome back to continued coverage of Election 2022. The polls have just closed in 3 states with important contests and we have some important projections to bring you now.”


“Starting in Ohio where Governor Mike DeWine has been re-elected by our projections, defeating Mayor Nan Whaley. Also in Ohio is a competitive Senate race where it is too early to call between author and Trump-backed candidate J.D. Vance and Congressman Tim Ryan. Another close contest for the Senate is in North Carolina where Cheri Beasley has made this race initially considered a shoo-in for Ted Budd due to the environment far closer than Mr. Budd would like it to be. Too early to call in this pivotal contest.”

“We’re also able to make a call in a race we weren’t able to previously project, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster has been re-elected defeating Democratic challenger former Rep. Joe Cunningham.”

In Washington, the President was taking a break from the screens, and the advisors jumping down his throat. Even as the most powerful man in the world, how much power do you really have? Barack, George, Bill, and even Jimmy all told him that despite being constantly surrounded by advisors, you’ll feel the most lonely in this job. Trying to combat the mental isolation and stress of election night jitters, he went to the White House courtyard with his grandson Robert to throw a football back and forth with him. It was always difficult for the President to establish a closeness with his grandson. It scared him how much Robert reminded him of Beau. Ambitious, brave, and never one to disrespect his Pop. It had been difficult for Beau’s two children to grow up without their father but as far as Joe could tell, they were strong. They were Bidens, after all.

That moment of closeness was quickly interrupted as an aide came to the courtyard. “Mr. President, the Georgia exit polls are here.” Joe, with his back turned, rolled his eyes. “Just leave them on my desk, will ya?” Without missing a beat, the aide responded “Yes, Mr. President. Right away.”

Nearly 993 miles south, Donald Trump was getting some less-than-pleasurable news. “Sir, it’s not good.” Donald shrugged. He hated these lawyerly meetings. He much preferred watching the returns and issuing press releases every 5 to 10 minutes about how the “incoming red wave” was all done by “yours truly” and telling Republicans to thank him for the victory. Instead, radio silence from Trump world. “Mr. President, we fully expect the Attorney General to announce that DOJ will be charging you.” Trump just sat there, motionless. For the first time, the man who had the “best words” had none. He could always dodge law enforcement. From the bankruptcies and malpractice suits in New York to the so-called “phony Russia witch hunt.” Throwing people under the bus to deflect the blame became second nature for the Trumps. But now, there was no one left. It was time to face the music. “It’s not official yet but everything we’ve heard tells us that’s where they’re leaning. What we need to do now is realize we can’t stop it, we just have to shift gears. Are you willing to entertain possibly taking a plea deal if it comes to it?” That was it. His lawyers, what did they think they were doing? Trump slammed the table, “F**k this. First Russia, then the election, now this bulls**t. I’m not weak. I’m strong, the strongest. And I’m not giving up. Get me out of this, you bunch of losers or you can bet your a** that you’re going to end up like the ones that came before you. Out on the street where my supporters will chew you to bits.” His lawyers took a deep breath. Realizing they overstayed their welcome, they exited the room. All that was left was a lone Secret Service agent and the former President. Donald started typing out something on his phone, a message he wanted to convey. What exactly it would look like would only be known by a few. Not Ivanka, not Don Jr., and certainly not Melania.

“On top of the calls we’ve just made at the top of the hour, the polls have closed in Pennsylvania and it’s too early to call between TV Doctor Mehmet Oz and Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, where polls are showing a tight contest between Oz and Fetterman. The latest Fox News poll showed Fetterman ahead by 3 points with neither candidate hitting 50% of the vote. Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, it is too early to call between Senator Maggie Hassan and Don Bolduc, but Senator Hassan leads. In Florida, we are designating this as too close to call because we have nearly 70% of the vote reported already. However, Senator Marco Rubio is leading over Congresswoman Val Demings. Interestingly, Senator Rubio is leading by more than Governor DeSantis, but more on that later.”

“Now, on to the Governors’ races where we can project that Democrats have made their first two gains of the night in Maryland and Massachusetts where Wes Moore and Maura Healey have both been elected respectively, defeating their Trump-endorsed challengers in these deep blue states. Meanwhile, we are unable to make a projection in Connecticut between Governor Ned Lamont and businessman and 2018 candidate Bob Stefanowski. Stefanowski’s wealth has made this race closer than expected and with the millions, he has thrown into the race, Stefanowski has put this race on the map as one of the key bellwethers. In Maine it is also too early to call between Governor Janet Mills and her predecessor former Governor Paul LePage, however, Mills leads in this close contest in New England. In Pennsylvania, it is too early to call in this truly divisive contest between Attorney General Josh Shapiro and State Senator Doug Mastriano. Mastriano has been throwing out the heat and closely embracing the former president even after his indictment, which Shapiro has pounced on. Our decision desk is deeming this too early to call, but a lead for Shapiro. We’ll see if it holds. Lastly, in Florida, we’re calling this too close to call due to the percentage of the vote that is reported. At the moment, Governor DeSantis leads, but by a much narrower margin than expected. Granted, most of the vote that’s left to report is favorable for Mr. DeSantis but regardless, much closer than he wants and if he only wins by 2-4 points tonight, it’s hard to see how this doesn’t dampen his presidential prospects in 2024. Too close to call, but DeSantis leads over Congressman Charlie Crist, the former GOP Governor turned Independent turned Democrat.”

“Moving on now to the House, we have our first two flips of the night. In Tennessee, no surprise here, Mayor Andy Ogles is headed to Congress. He will succeed longtime Democratic Congressman Jim Cooper. The first big swing district to be called tonight, it happens to be the second flip of the night. Good news for Republicans. Elaine Luria has lost her seat in eastern Virginia. Jen Kiggans has won in Virginia’s 2nd District, a Republican pickup in one of the most expensive, most hardly fought House races in the Nation. We now know its outcome, meaning yet another member of the January 6 committee will not be returning to the House. Liz Cheney lost her primary, Adam Kinzinger and Stephanie Murphy retired, and now Elaine Luria has lost re-election. Interestingly, Kiggans hasn’t really attacked her for her position on the committee, making this race about inflation and costs of goods rather than Donald Trump while Luria has tried to associate Kiggans with Trump. Turns out, it didn’t work. We’ve got about 91% of the vote counted, a quick result in Virginia, but it looks like, if our projection and estimates are right, Kiggans will end up winning by a margin of 52-48. We’ll see if it’s right.”

[VirginiaAaron]

Results as of 9:30 PM EST

SENATE

Arizona, 3% in
Mark Kelly (D, inc): 55.4%
Blake Masters (R): 43.9%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Colorado, 1% in
Joe O'Dea (R): 77.2%
Michael Bennet (D, inc): 22.8%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Florida, 90% in
Marco Rubio (R, inc): 54.8% ✓
Val Demings (D): 45.1%
RUBIO WINS

Georgia, 53% in
Raphael Warnock (D, inc): 50.1%
Herschel Walker (R): 49.0%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

New Hampshire, 22% in
Maggie Hassan (D, inc): 52.9%
Don Bolduc (R): 46.0%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

North Carolina, 48% in
Ted Budd (R): 51.8%
Cheri Beasley (D): 47.6%
TOO EARLY TO CALL


Ohio, 50% in
Tim Ryan (D): 49.8%
J.D. Vance (R): 48.3%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Pennsylvania, 31% in
Mehmet Oz (R): 48.9%
John Fetterman (D): 48.7%
TOO EARLY TO CALL


Wisconsin, 4% in
Ron Johnson (R, inc): 53.4%
Mandela Barnes (D): 46.5%
TOO EARLY TO CALL


GOVERNORS

Arizona, 3% in
Katie Hobbs (D): 54.8%
Kari Lake (R): 44.1%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Colorado, 1% in
Heidi Ganahl (R): 69.4%
Jared Polis (D): 30.2%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Connecticut, 41% in
Ned Lamont (D, inc): 51.9%
Bob Stefanowski (R): 48.0%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Florida, 90% in
Ron DeSantis (R, inc): 53.7%
Charlie Crist (D): 46.2%
DESANTIS WINS

Georgia, 53% in
Brian Kemp (R, inc): 51.4%
Stacey Abrams (D): 48.2%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Kansas, 6% in
Laura Kelly (D, inc): 49.9%
Derek Schmidt (R): 48.4%
Dennis Pyle (I): 1.1%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Maine, 33% in
Janet Mills (D, inc): 53.6%
Paul LePage (R): 45.2%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Michigan, 17% in
Gretchen Whitmer (D, inc): 54.8%
Tudor Dixon (R): 44.9%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Minnesota, 11% in
Tim Walz (D, inc): 53.0%
Scott Jensen (R): 46.5%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

New Mexico, 2% in
Mark Ronchetti (R): 62.4%
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D, inc): 37.6%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Pennsylvania, 31% in
Josh Shapiro (D): 50.4%
Doug Mastriano (R): 47.1%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Texas, 41% in
Greg Abbott (R, inc): 55.0%
Beto O'Rourke (D): 44.4%
TOO EARLY TO CALL


If you have any questions about these races or others that have been called that I didn't include, or individual House results please let me know and I'd be happy to answer any and all questions. Thanks for reading!

[2016]

Will be like a 10 Point Win for DeSantis in FL, the rest of the Vote is likely coming in from the Panhandle.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

DeSantis wins by 10% or more, his presidential plans regarding 2024 are more or less in play.

[2016]

DeSantis wins by 10% or more, his presidential plans regarding 2024 are more or less in play.

With Trump indicted DeSantis will take his time, Republican Field essentially frozen until he makes an Announcement one way or the other.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Have polling averages changed much from now to election day?

[VirginiaAaron]

Have polling averages changed much from now to election day?

Generic ballot has Dems up a point or two. Most of the races haven't really changed aside from Pennsylvania narrowing but still Fetterman ahead by a few points.

[PRESIDENT STANTON]

Fetterman will win it, due to carpetbagger accusations being leveled at Ōz, however Mastriano is a sleeper and I imagine that he defeats Shapiro by 5%, there's no way that Democrats hold Governorship and flip a Senate seat; the environment will be sufficiently different by November; the Mar-A-Lago drama will be a distant memory, and if Democrats think they can survive off the fumes over what happened in August, are in for a nasty surprise. Inflationary pressures regarding grocery and gas prices will once again become dominant, once voters are reminded that Biden is President and not Trump; then the jig's up!

[VirginiaAaron]

Results as of 10:15 PM EST

SENATE

Arizona, 34% in
Mark Kelly (D, inc): 50.6%
Blake Masters (R): 47.8%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Colorado, 22% in
Michael Bennet (D, inc): 53.4%
Joe O'Dea (R): 45.2%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Georgia, 78% in
Raphael Warnock (D, inc): 49.9%
Herschel Walker (R): 48.6%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Nevada, 2% in
Adam Laxalt (R): 72.2%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D, inc): 26.5%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

New Hampshire, 53% in
Maggie Hassan (D, inc): 53.7% ✓
Don Bolduc (R): 44.9%
HASSAN WINS

North Carolina, 69% in
Ted Budd (R): 52.6% ✓
Cheri Beasley (D): 46.9%
BUDD WINS

Ohio, 61% in
J.D. Vance (R): 51.4%
Tim Ryan (D): 45.3%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Pennsylvania, 70% in
John Fetterman (D): 48.3%
Mehmet Oz (R): 47.8%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Utah, 1% in
Mike Lee (R, inc): 67.9%
Evan McMullin (I): 26.5%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Wisconsin, 20% in
Ron Johnson (R, inc): 54.1%
Mandela Barnes (D): 45.8%
TOO EARLY TO CALL


GOVERNORS

Arizona, 34% in
Katie Hobbs (D): 48.8%
Kari Lake (R): 47.7%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Colorado, 22% in
Jared Polis (D): 55.3% ✓
Heidi Ganahl (R): 43.1%
POLIS WINS

Connecticut, 54% in
Ned Lamont (D, inc): 50.8%
Bob Stefanowski (R): 49.1%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Georgia, 53% in
Brian Kemp (R, inc): 53.0% ✓
Stacey Abrams (D): 46.1%
KEMP WINS

Kansas, 17% in
Laura Kelly (D, inc): 48.8%
Derek Schmidt (R): 48.5%
Dennis Pyle (I): 1.5%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Maine, 54% in
Janet Mills (D, inc): 53.2%
Paul LePage (R): 45.7%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Michigan, 35% in
Gretchen Whitmer (D, inc): 55.0%
Tudor Dixon (R): 44.3%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Minnesota, 29% in
Tim Walz (D, inc): 52.9%
Scott Jensen (R): 46.8%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Nevada, 2% in
Joe Lombardo (R): 70.5%
Steve Sisolak (D, inc): 27.9%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

New Mexico, 15% in
Mark Ronchetti (R): 50.4%
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D, inc): 48.9%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Pennsylvania, 70% in
Josh Shapiro (D): 52.6%
Doug Mastriano (R): 45.9%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Texas, 77% in
Greg Abbott (R, inc): 55.4% ✓
Beto O'Rourke (D): 43.9%
ABBOTT WINS

[VirginiaAaron]

I'll get back to actual writing for the TL after the 2022 results are done, it's just very tedious to write election night coverage when most people will just scroll down to the actual results. Without further ado, here are the...

RESULTS AS OF 11:15

SENATE

Arizona, 75% in
Mark Kelly (D, inc): 50.7%
Blake Masters (R): 47.5%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Colorado, 50% in
Michael Bennet (D, inc): 53.3% ✓
Joe O'Dea (R): 46.1%
BENNET WINS

Georgia, 90% in
Raphael Warnock (D, inc): 49.0% ✓
Herschel Walker (R): 48.7% ✓
WARNOCK/WALKER ADVANCE TO DECEMBER RUNOFF

Nevada, 35% in
Adam Laxalt (R): 54.5%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D, inc): 43.2%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Ohio, 80% in
J.D. Vance (R): 52.8% ✓
Tim Ryan (D): 46.3%
VANCE WINS

Pennsylvania, 84% in
Mehmet Oz (R): 49.0%
John Fetterman (D): 48.8%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Utah, 11% in
Mike Lee (R, inc): 60.0%
Evan McMullin (I): 38.9%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Washington, 4% in
Patty Murray (D, inc): 55.5%
Tiffany Smiley (R): 44.5%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Wisconsin, 48% in
Mandela Barnes (D): 50.2%
Ron Johnson (R): 49.6%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

GOVERNORS
Arizona, 75% in
Kari Lake (R): 48.5%
Katie Hobbs (D): 48.0%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Connecticut, 67% in
Ned Lamont (D, inc): 51.9% ✓
Bob Stefanowski (R): 47.9%
LAMONT WINS

Kansas, 37% in
Derek Schmidt: 48.0%
Laura Kelly: 47.5%
Derek Pyle (I): 2.8%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Maine, 60% in
Janet Mills (D, inc): 53.9% ✓
Paul LePage (R): 45.5%
MILLS WINS

Michigan, 49% in
Gretchen Whitmer (D, inc): 54.8% ✓
Tudor Dixon (R): 44.6%
WHITMER WINS

Minnesota, 51% in
Tim Walz (D, inc): 53.6% ✓
Scott Jensen (R): 45.3%
WALZ WINS

Nevada, 35% in
Joe Lombardo (R): 53.6%
Steve Sisolak (D, inc): 45.1%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

New Mexico, 40% in
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D, inc): 52.2%
Mark Ronchetti (R): 47.8%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Oregon, 6% in
Christine Drazan (R): 40.0%
Tina Kotek (D): 38.3%
Betsy Johnson (I): 20.7%
TOO EARLY TO CALL

Pennsylvania, 84% in
Josh Shapiro (D): 50.5%
Doug Mastriano (R): 46.9%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Wisconsin, 48% in
Tony Evers (D, inc): 51.0%
Tim Michels (R): 48.8%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[2016]

Ok, that's it. Republicans are close having the House. They only need 14 Seats out of the 48 TOO CLOSE/TOO EARLY Seats to get there. Getting mathematically near impossible to retain the House for the Democrats.

[VirginiaAaron]

BREAKING: REPUBLICANS TAKE CONTROL OF THE HOUSE

"Welcome back to CNN's continued coverage of Midterm 2022. It is 12:22 on the east coast and we can now officially say that Republicans have officially taken control of the U.S. House of Representatives. They have crossed the 218-seat threshold. CNN had called this by our voter analysis forecast about an hour and a half ago, but now it's official."

"That's right, Wolf. And we're able to make this call because Congressman Tom Malinowski, who was in a very tight battle for re-election against Tom Kean, Jr., the son of the former Governor and nominee for this seat in 2020, has lost. Malinowski won this seat by about 5,000 votes in 2020 and with 89% of the vote in, the Associated Press and the CNN decision desk have called former State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. the winner of this race."

"So far, Republicans have gained 19 seats, Democrats have gained 4, leading to a net gain of 15 seats for the GOP. There are still 22 races where the polls have closed and we do not have a projection, plus the Alaska race which we won't get a final decision on till a few weeks from now. This pits Congresswoman Mary Peltola against former Governor Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III, the grandson of the former Congressman Nick Begich I. If we get a repeat of the August special election where Palin advanced to the final round against Peltola, it just might be the Congresswoman's best chance of being re-elected. But if Republican voters rank Begich ahead, the road to a full term gets all the harder for Peltola."

"We also have some calls to make in the remaining Senate and gubernatorial races. In Utah, CNN can project that Senator Mike Lee has been re-elected, defeating Republican-turned-Independent former presidential candidate Evan McMullin. McMullin had made this race closer than expected but in the end, Lee has prevailed. And, I'm being told we have another major projection. CNN is projecting that Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman has been elected to the Senate, defeating TV Doctor Mehmet Oz. With this call, Democrats have picked up their first Senate seat of the night. And unless Republicans pick up at least 1 seat, Democrats look to be on their way to keeping and expanding their Senate majority, a reality not considered possible just one year ago."

Credit to @xyzlojones on Twitter for making the template for this fantastic CNN projection slide. I spent years, literally years, trying to perfect mine and didn't really make it far. He's found the right fonts, coloring, and everything in between to make this seem like a carbon copy from the coverage we watch every Election Day. Here (https://twitter.com/xyzlojones)is the link to his Twitter account, if you have an account I encourage you to follow him.

[VirginiaAaron]

Tomorrow I'm posting the final results from the midterms so that we can move on to actual writing for Dysfunction. If you're reading and enjoying, comment below any final predictions with maps or just general top-line predictions. Thanks for the comments both publicly and privately and I hope you all are enjoying the TL as much as I've enjoyed writing it so far.

[2016]

53 % in Kansas. Derek Schmidt is almost certain to win, GOP Governor GAIN.

Reason: The Vote pattern in KS that the more liberal Eastern Part of the State comes in first so if the West is still out I just don't see how Laura Kelly can hang on here. It's how Pat Roberts & Sam Brownback beat Greg Orman & Paul Davis in 2014.

44 % in Nevada. I'd rather be Laxalt then CCM. Depends on how of Clark County has come in.

60 % in Wisconsin. I think Michels & Johnson are favoured especially if Dane County (Madison) is in.

84 % in Arizona. If we have the same pattern like the 2020 Election where the late arriving Ballots that were dropped of on E-Day are favouring Republicans then I'd say Masters loses while Lake narrowly wins.

[VirginiaAaron]

2022 RESULTS AND REACTIONS

"Mixed reactions to midterm results as divided government continues"
-NBC News

"Stocks remain stable as President Biden declares he has a mandate for bipartisanship"
-Bloomberg

"Let me be unequivocally clear: the Department of Justice has more than enough evidence to formally charge Donald Trump with violation of the Espionage Act"
-Attorney General Merrick Garland on the morning of November 10

"President Biden to revamp entire communications team after mixed midterm results; Biden to ask Secretary Mayorkas to resign"
-Fox News

"The American people have selected us to act as a check on President Biden and his inflationary policies and we intend to do so"
-Kevin McCarthy, Speaker-designate of the House

"The people have spoken and spoken clearly. I have done all I can as Republican Senate leader, led us to thumping majorities in 2014, 2016, and 2018, and helped to confirm 3 conservative Supreme Court Justices. But now, it's time to come home which is why, effective on the election of my successor, I will resign as Republican Senate Leader."
-Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader

"Radio silence from Trumpworld shows one thing: they know they're in trouble."
-Rachel Maddow

"Former Vice President Mike Pence announces formation of presidential exploratory committee"
-CBS

"Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin meeting with donors in D.C. to discuss 2024 cycle"
-The Virginia Gazette

"Report: Daniel Cameron telling allies he will suspend campaign for Governor upon the resignation of Mitch McConnell, to be appointed replacement by Gov. Beshear"
-The New York Times

"Poll: 43% of Republicans now say it is "likely" that former President Trump broke the law"
-Trafalgar

SENATE

Top 8 Closest Races
- Georgia (RUNOFF), Walker +0.22 -
1. Nevada, Cortez Masto +0.43
2. Wisconsin, Johnson +0.88
3. Pennsylvania, Fetterman +1.10
4. Arizona, Kelly +1.87
5. Ohio, Vance +4.88
6. North Carolina, Budd +5.04
7. Colorado, Bennet +6.14
8. New Hampshire, Hassan +6.26

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Top 8 Closest Races
1. ME-02, Golden +0.07
2. CA-22, Valadao +0.46
3. PA-08, Cartwright +0.5
4. NV-03, Lee +0.53
5. OR-05, Chavez-DeRemer +0.67
6. IL-17, King +0.8
7. NY-19, Riley +0.86
8. CA-45, Steel +0.98

GOVERNORS

Top 8 Closest Races
1. Kansas, Kelly +0.02
2. Arizona, Hobbs +0.44
3. Wisconsin, Evers +0.78
4. Nevada, Sisolak +1.23
5. Oregon, Kotek +2.03
6. Pennsylvania, Shapiro +4.65
7. New Mexico, Grisham +4.79
8. Georgia, Kemp +5.89

As always, any questions about individual races, headlines from the first part of the post, or even county results (not an expert but I'll do my best) are more than welcome.

[VirginiaAaron]

BREAKING NEWS: IN FIRST STATEMENT SINCE BEING CHARGED, TRUMP CALLS FOR VIOLENCE

"Good evening, welcome to Special Report, I'm Bret Baier. Just a few moments ago, former President Donald Trump, fresh off being charged with violations of the Espionage Act, made his first statement. In it, he calls the United States a banana republic, falsely claimed the Senate results last night which showed Democrats holding on to control were fraudulent, claimed that Merrick Garland was a puppet of the so-called "Deep State," and at the very end said that the time for being civil has come and gone. He ends the statement by saying it's time to "take your country back."

"Consequently, we received word not long after this statement was issued that the former President's entire legal team have all resigned because of this statement. For over a year now, we as a Nation have been deliberating, debating, and arguing whether Donald Trump was responsible for the violence that led to the January 6 insurrection, but now, as we can see from this statement if violence comes from this as many expect it will he will bear all the responsibility. Joining me now is former New Jersey Governor, former Trump supporter, and potential 2024 presidential candidate, Chris Christie. Governor Christie, thank you for being with us."

Image from Wikimedia Commons

"Thanks for having me, Bret. I wish it were under better circumstances."

"Let's start with your reaction to the Senate results last night. Democrats held onto at least 50, that number could be 51 pending the results of the Georgia runoff in December. Why do you think Republicans came up short?"

"Well, I think it came down to three things. The first was the Dobbs decision motivated women, particularly women of color, out to vote and clearly, it made the difference in several states. I was out there, campaigning in several swing states and I was one of the only Republicans sounding off the alarm bell about this. Despite this, many in the GOP leadership continued pushing and condoning extreme abortion rhetoric. I'm pro-life. Always have been, always will be. But we need to be clear that we are not pushing for a nationwide abortion ban. A few weeks ago, I was in the Philadelphia suburbs with Dr. Oz and the number one issue for women living in the suburbs became abortion. Before inflation, before gas prices, before anything else that was a winning issue for Republicans a year ago. Clearly, it made the difference in Pennsylvania where Dr. Oz came up just short, Nevada with Adam Laxalt who lost by 4 tenths of a percent, and it nearly cost us Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. The second being Donald. The leadership of the GOP basically told him where he should and should not campaign, and he threw it out the door. Herschel Walker pushing himself up onto Donald every chance he got probably didn't help. There's about 4-5% of Georgians that voted Kemp for Governor and either Warnock or third party for the Senate, more than enough to make the difference. Had he not pushed himself into association with Trump, maybe he would've won outright. Who knows? And the third thing is the President's blatant attempt to buy votes. First it was the student loan cancellation, bringing young people out to vote, then it was the rumors going around that the President is flirting with a marijuana legalization bill. Ultimately, the Republican House won't let that happen but the fact that he was considering it definitely got young people out to vote under false pretenses and it made the difference in races like the Pennsylvania Senate seat, Wisconsin Governor, Nevada Senate, and a whole slew of others."

"Let's go to the statement made by the former President. For those that are unaware, you ran against him in 2016 but after it became clear, you thought, he would be the Republican nominee, you dropped out and endorsed him. You and Kellyanne Conway were the two leaders in trying to frame him to get him to win and tone down the rhetoric, and ultimately it worked because he won. You were vetted for Vice President, told you had the job and then the next day it was announced Mike Pence was the pick, and you were also vetted for Attorney General but passed over. With that all said, in light of this and the events leading up to and including January 6, do you regret your decision to back him in 2016?"

"Look, elections are binary choices. Once it was clear to me that he would be the Republican nominee, it became a decision between him and Hillary Clinton, a flawed candidate whose own history with the law was murky, to say the least. Given the information that was present at the time, I do not regret my decision."

"Let's talk about the statement itself. He calls the United States a "banana republic," that the Deep State is out to get him, that last night's results were fraudulent, but the most telling part of the statement is at the end where he calls for riots in the elk of the protests that turned violent in some cases in the Summer of 2020 in the wake of George Floyd's murder. What is your initial reaction to this statement?"

"I think it shows that Donald knows he's guilty. He's got nothing left to do, so he's playing his last card. He knows it's curtains for his political career, that his legacy won't be the economy. It won't be conservative judges, it won't be criminal justice reform that he worked on with Tim Scott. His legacy will be a legacy of defying the law, inciting rhetoric that has already taken the lives of two FBI agents in the last 3 months and that number will certainly go up in the coming weeks if we don't do anything about it, not to mention the January 6 insurrection. I've said since January 7 of 2021 that we need to be the party of tomorrow, not the party of airing my grievances about yesterday."

"So when you say "it's curtains for his political career," does that mean you think he will not be a candidate for President in 2024?"

"I am certain he will not run in 2024. I don't see how he can with the existing legal issues and if this statement confirms anything, it means he's getting charged, he'll probably be convicted and barred from ever running again. And even if he does run again, his support within the GOP is dropping exponentially. I don't think he runs because I think he'll be disqualified but even if he does run, I don't think he will be the Republican nominee."

"Last question, Governor. We just talked about 2024. The other day, Mike Pence launched an exploratory committee. Glenn Youngkin is talking to donors in New Hampshire. Nikki Haley is swinging through her home state of South Carolina. And you're talking to us via satellite from Iowa. Is there anything you want to tell us about your plans for next year?"

"Well Bret, I've been going all over America the last year and a half listening to people and it's clear they want a change. I've always said that if I felt like I had something to offer, I would run. I'm not ruling it out, but I also haven't made a decision and that's something I'm going to have to discuss with my family through the Christmas holiday and we'll have a decision by January of 2023."

"As always, thanks for being with us Governor Christie. Come back soon."

"Will do, Bret, thanks for having me."

"Coming up next, we'll talk more about the bombshell statement from the former President, the 2024 race, and reaction to the midterm results."

[2016]

DeSantis is the Odd-On favourite to the Nomination with Trump officially charged with crime and after his resounding 10 Point Victory over Crist.

Haley, Youngkin, Christie, Pence. None of them will make it.

[VirginiaAaron]

DeSantis is the Odd-On favourite to the Nomination with Trump officially charged with crime and after his resounding 10 Point Victory over Crist.

Haley, Youngkin, Christie, Pence. None of them will make it.

Realistically, yes. But there's been so many DeSantis timelines, I'm not going that route. I won't say who the candidate is going to be but I'm gonna be honest it won't end up being DeSantis. Also final results had him up by about 8. Still a big win, considering it's Florida, but DeSantis won by 8 and Rubio won by 9.

[2016]

Looking forward to it Maybe Youngkin? I can't imagine it will be Pence. He is probably going to be despised by the Republican Base.

[VirginiaAaron]

HEADLINES THROUGH NOVEMBER 2022

“Mitch McConnell tenders resignation to Governor Andy Beshear, effective February 1; Beshear appoints AG and former candidate for Governor Daniel Cameron”
-CNN

“Beshear calls special election for McConnell’s seat to be same day as November general election”
-Lexington Herald-Leader

“Rocky Adkins announces candidacy for special Senate seat, to be challenged by Charles Booker and Amy McGrath as Senator-designate Cameron clears GOP field”
-The Commonwealth Journal

“President Biden tells reporters he hopes McConnell enjoys retirement”
-Fox News

“Here’s how you know Donald Trump is losing influence in the Republican Party. Turn your TV to Fox after 6:00 when the propaganda is on. Now, they’re just throwing baseless conspiracy theories at Joe Biden. Their obsession is no longer Donald Trump.”
-Rachel Maddow

“Republican Senate caucus unanimously select John Thune to be new Minority Leader, plus the race to replace Pelosi comes down to New York's Hakeem Jeffries and California's Adam Schiff”
-ABC News

"Speaker Pelosi orders increase in Capitol Hill Police Officers standing guard, puts up fences around Capitol, cancels tours indefinitely"
-Wall Street Journal

“Warnock extends polling lead after violent protestors attempt to start riot at Warnock rally"
-CNN

“DeSantis, Youngkin, Pence, Haley early leaders in 2024 GOP primary race”
-Fox News

“Jimmy Fallon announces he will leave The Tonight Show after 10th-anniversary show in February 2024”
-NBC

“Grammys buzz: Adele’s 30 and Beyoncé’s Renaissance continue as frontrunners for Album of the Year”
-E!

“UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’s approval rating falls to 32% as calls for an early general election grow within Parliament”
-BBC

“Prime Minister Truss announces coronation of King Charles III will be held on 2 June 2023, exactly 70 years after Queen Elizabeth II’s coronation”
-Sky News

“Justin Trudeau confirms general election will “likely” be held at the end of 2024, coinciding with the US presidential election”
-CBC

POLLING AVERAGES

President Joe Biden Approval Rating

Disapprove: 50.8%

Approve: 44.4%

DISAPPROVE +6.4

Vice President Kamala Harris Approval Rating

Disapprove: 54.9%

Approve: 38.7%

DISAPPROVE +16.2

Speaker-designate Kevin McCarthy Approval Rating

Disapprove: 48.0%

Approve: 35.6%

DISAPPROVE +12.4

Majority Leader Chuck Schumer Approval Rating

Disapprove: 46.4%

Approve: 36.1%

DISAPPROVE +10.3

Georgia Senate Runoff

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): 53.3%

Herschel Walker (R): 45.6%

WARNOCK +7.7

2024 Republican Nomination

Gov. Ron DeSantis: 17%

Fmr. VP Mike Pence: 16%

Gov. Glenn Youngkin: 13%

Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley: 12%

Sen. Ted Cruz: 6%

Fmr. Gov. Chris Christie: 4%

Gov. Greg Abbott: 3%

Sen. Marco Rubio: 3%

Sen. Tom Cotton: 2%

Fmr. Sec. Mike Pompeo: 2%

Rep. Liz Cheney: 1%

Gov. Larry Hogan: 1%

Sen. Ben Sasse: 1%

Gov. Chris Sununu: 1%

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: 1%

May. Francis Suarez: 1%

Gov. Asa Hutchinson: 0%

Undecided: 16%

DESANTIS +1

2024 Democratic Nomination

Pres. Joe Biden: 85%

Nina Turner: 2%

Undecided: 13%

BIDEN + 83

Kentucky Special Senate: Cameron vs. Adkins

Sen. Daniel Cameron (R): 52.2%

Adv. Rocky Adkins (D): 45.9%

CAMERON +6.3

Kentucky Special Senate: Cameron vs. McGrath

Sen. Daniel Cameron (R): 56.9%

Amy McGrath (D): 39.0%

CAMERON +17.9

Kentucky Special Senate: Cameron vs. Booker

Sen. Daniel Cameron (R): 58.0%

Fmr. State Rep. Charles Booker(D): 35.7%

CAMERON +22.3

[VirginiaAaron]

DECEMBER HEADLINES

"Trump supporters protest at Attorney General Merrick Garland's house, vowing a "time of reckoning" is coming soon"
-CNN

"Shooting at Atlanta church leaves 12 dead, law enforcement says the perpetrator was a believer of the QAnon conspiracy theory"
-MSNBC

"Warnock pauses campaign to pay respects to victims, Walker vows to stay on the campaign trail"
-The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

"Why Herschel Walker's continued unabashed defense of Donald Trump has scared away potential 2024 contenders"
-ABC News

"Warnock maintains lead in Georgia Senate race as he crosses the state with President Biden and Oprah Winfrey, stressing the importance of a clear Senate majority"
-Fox News

"In latest statement, former President Donald Trump tells Georgia voters to "decide for themselves" on whether to vote in "rigged" runoff"
-CNN

"New York Rep. Elise Stefanik seen leaving Mar-a-Lago amid rumors of a potential 2024 campaign; pundits suggest she's asking for Trump's blessing to run after they reportedly made a deal to run together in 2024"
-Politico

Georgia Senate Runoff Final Result

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) - 53.12% ✓

Herschel Walker (R) - 46.88%

"House Democrats select Hakeem Jeffries as new House Minority Leader"
-USA Today

"Youngkin says it's time to move on, Haley says it's time for a new leader, DeSantis remains silent, why some of the 2024 frontrunners are still avoiding condemning Donald Trump"
-New York Times

"Governor Noem seen in D.C. meeting with campaign advisors. Could she be plotting a 2024 campaign?"
-Rapid City Journal

"President Biden says formal re-election campaign kickoff will take place sometime in March 2023"
-The Washington Post

"Ronna McDaniel resigns as RNC Chair after loss in Georgia, Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin to succeed her"
-New York Post

[VirginiaAaron]

JANUARY HEADLINES

“In bizarre concession speech, Herschel Walker compares himself to Winnie the Pooh saying he is a man of “very little brain” but congratulates Raphael Warnock on victory”
-CNN

“Since I’ve taken over as RNC Chair, we’ve been working diligently to find a location and venue that would be best for the field of candidates to debate along with a set of moderators that are nonpartisan and will be fair to them. We settled on Charlotte, North Carolina with Fox News’s Bret Baier and Shannon Bream on June 2 and June 3, 2023. The qualifications are pretty simple. Candidates can either hit 1% in 5 national polls recognized by the RNC or 70,000 donors. These are similar guidelines to what the Democrats did in 2020, we just made it stricter because we don’t want a clown car of candidates like they had.”
-RNC Chair Mike Gallagher

“Buckingham Palace confirms King Charles III suffered a minor stroke, is in stable condition”
-BBC

“Kevin McCarthy wins Speakership vote, despite efforts by Greene and Gaetz to throw the Speakership to Trump”
-CNN

“Our goal is to put a man and a woman on Mars by the end of this year. We know it’s a lofty goal, but it’s one that we believe is doable and I can assure you on behalf of the entirety of NASA, President Biden, and the whole federal government that we’re going to get this done.”
-NASA Administrator Bill Nelson

“Just one day after being sworn into House for fifth term, Rep. Alex Mooney announces Senate bid against incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin”
-CBS News

“Ted Cruz announces second presidential campaign, first to officially join the race”
-Fox News

“Vice President Harris says she’s staying out of the 2023 races but will “support our nominees,” while sources say President Biden has indicated unofficial support for Rocky Adkins”
-POLITICO

“Mike Espy: I’m running for Governor to protect the great people of Mississippi and bring consensus and unity back to the Governor’s Mansion”
-The Daily Mississippian

“US Economy remains stable as unemployment narrowly ticks down, inflation ticks up to 8.7%.”
-Wall Street Journal

“Source close to a senior member of the cabinet says it’s time for Truss to “put up or shut up,” says if Conservatives suffer major losses in 2023 local elections there will be a confidence vote”
-BBC

“Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro claims his election loss was a “coup,” and pledges he will be back in office before the next election”
-AP

POLLING AVERAGES

PRESIDENT BIDEN APPROVAL RATING

Disapprove: 51.3%

Approve: 43.9%

DISAPPROVE +7.4

VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS APPROVAL RATING

Disapprove: 55.0%

Approve: 39.5%

DISAPPROVE +15.5

SPEAKER MCCARTHY APPROVAL RATING

Disapprove: 49.4%

Approve: 38.3%

DISAPPROVE +11.1

LEADER SCHUMER APPROVAL RATING

Disapprove: 47.2%

Approve: 36.9%

DISAPPROVE +10.3

IOWA RCP AVERAGE: PENCE/DESANTIS TIE

NEW HAMPSHIRE: DESANTIS +2.3

SOUTH CAROLINA: HALEY +12.8

NEVADA: DESANTIS +0.3