SC-GOV (Trafalgar): McMaster +8

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SC-Gov-General-Full-Report-0828.pdf

August 25-28, 1071 LV

Henry McMaster (R, inc) 50.5%
Joe Cunningham (D) 42.7%
Morgan Bruce Reeves (L) 2.4%

Closer than I would have expected.

[Sir Mohamed]

Vote share for Cunningham looks about right. Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good we get a Traggy poll in SC I am putting SC as Lean D

[Person Man]

This is like having a closeish contest in Oregon.

[wbrocks67]

Huh, wasn't expecting it to be this close. It's too bad this isn't a 2018-type wave year, Cunningham may have had a shot since McMaster only won by like 3 or 4 in 2018.

Cunningham is a strong recruit though and McMaster doesn't seem to be that popular.

Either way, if a Dem is only down 8 in SC, what does that mean for the rest of the races, esp swing states?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

unfortunate but not unexpected from me. SC is very inelastic, I expect yet another 53-44 type race. Maybe 52-45. Sucks because Cunningham is a good recruit and would be a great gov.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

unfortunate but not unexpected from me. SC is very inelastic, I expect yet another 53-44 type race. Maybe 52-45. Sucks because Cunningham is a good recruit and would be a great gov.

.did you know we didn't win TX and NC seats in 2018 until the end of 2018 we don't know what a blue wave looks like but this is a weak showing for McMasters 7 pts and it's gonna get closer all these red states because Biden helped Obama win red states in 2008/12 and we won them in 2006/2018 , AZ and GA were red states turned Blue

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why did they poll here? Regardless, this is surprisingly close. No chance it flips, possibly ever, but I am curious about why that might be. Does Cunningham just have some sort of specific appeal?

[Real Texan Politics]

Good we get a Traggy poll in SC I am putting SC as Lean D

Bruh

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good we get a Traggy poll in SC I am putting SC as Lean D

Bruh

You said NM was going R bruh she's up 47/40

[Real Texan Politics]

Good we get a Traggy poll in SC I am putting SC as Lean D

Bruh

You said NM was going R bruh she's up 47/40

You have Louisiana going dem in the senate this year…

End of argument.

PS: South Carolina is safe R, likely R at the worst case scenario.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why did they poll here? Regardless, this is surprisingly close. No chance it flips, possibly ever, but I am curious about why that might be. Does Cunningham just have some sort of specific appeal?

Banning abortion is not popular.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Joe would be a great governor and he's running on some good ideas. Legalizing pot, gambling, keeping abortion legal, and ending the state income tax. He's the best nominee the Democrats could make. But SC is a 55-44 state; 52-45 in bad years for Republicans.

McMaster hasn't been a great governor, but he will have an R next to his name, and that will be enough to get him re-elected.

Huh, wasn't expecting it to be this close. It's too bad this isn't a 2018-type wave year, Cunningham may have had a shot since McMaster only won by like 3 or 4 in 2018.

Cunningham is a strong recruit though and McMaster doesn't seem to be that popular.

Either way, if a Dem is only down 8 in SC, what does that mean for the rest of the races, esp swing states?

Nah, McMaster won by 8 in 2018. And James Smith was a good candidate too. A young military veteran who served in Afghanistan. He still had no chance.

[kwabbit]

Why did they poll here? Regardless, this is surprisingly close. No chance it flips, possibly ever, but I am curious about why that might be. Does Cunningham just have some sort of specific appeal?

Cunningham is moderate, Dobbs is unpopular, and most importantly no one is paying attention to the race. See Jaime Harrison before and after he became the focus of national attention. Mike Espy, who was running in a redder state with no national spotlight, outran the media darling with 100 million dollars.

[MT Treasurer]

Vote share for Cunningham looks about right. Safe R.

I thought Trafalgar polls always overestimated Republicans, though? If we’re now having to focus on D vote share in their polls as well, then that would suggest the opposite.

[Schiff for Senate]

Vote share for Cunningham looks about right. Safe R.

Safe R, sure, but Cunningham will get a higher % than that.

[Schiff for Senate]

Joe would be a great governor and he's running on some good ideas. Legalizing pot, gambling, keeping abortion legal, and ending the state income tax. He's the best nominee the Democrats could make. But SC is a 55-44 state; 52-45 in bad years for Republicans.

McMaster hasn't been a great governor, but he will have an R next to his name, and that will be enough to get him re-elected.

Huh, wasn't expecting it to be this close. It's too bad this isn't a 2018-type wave year, Cunningham may have had a shot since McMaster only won by like 3 or 4 in 2018.

Cunningham is a strong recruit though and McMaster doesn't seem to be that popular.

Either way, if a Dem is only down 8 in SC, what does that mean for the rest of the races, esp swing states?

Nah, McMaster won by 8 in 2018. And James Smith was a good candidate too. A young military veteran who served in Afghanistan. He still had no chance.

The funny thing is, despite 2010 being a red wave and it being an open seat, SC was actually quite close in GOV-2010.

[Schiff for Senate]

Good we get a Traggy poll in SC I am putting SC as Lean D

Bruh

You said NM was going R bruh she's up 47/40

You have Louisiana going dem in the senate this year…

End of argument.

PS: South Carolina is safe R, likely R at the worst case scenario.

He’s also Olawakandi. End of argument.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good we get a Traggy poll in SC I am putting SC as Lean D

Bruh

You said NM was going R bruh she's up 47/40

You have Louisiana going dem in the senate this year…

End of argument.

PS: South Carolina is safe R, likely R at the worst case scenario.

He’s also Olawakandi. End of argument.

Lol you said Evers and Barnes were gonna lose Barnes been ahead in every poll end of discussion

I don't make exact maps for a reason I have been doing this since 2004 it doesn't work because D's outnumber Rs 65/60M we can get any wave insurance map and you can't update your prediction on EDay otherwise I would make an R nut map

Alot of users are newbies, and pbower2A make D nut maps too

Once we get a result I will know if it's a 303 map we can't  figure it out until we vote right now it's pies in skies

Polls are FLAWED in NY 19 and AK Rs were supposed to win if we would elect people by polls we wouldn't vote at all

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Joe would be a great governor and he's running on some good ideas. Legalizing pot, gambling, keeping abortion legal, and ending the state income tax. He's the best nominee the Democrats could make. But SC is a 55-44 state; 52-45 in bad years for Republicans.

McMaster hasn't been a great governor, but he will have an R next to his name, and that will be enough to get him re-elected.

Huh, wasn't expecting it to be this close. It's too bad this isn't a 2018-type wave year, Cunningham may have had a shot since McMaster only won by like 3 or 4 in 2018.

Cunningham is a strong recruit though and McMaster doesn't seem to be that popular.

Either way, if a Dem is only down 8 in SC, what does that mean for the rest of the races, esp swing states?

Nah, McMaster won by 8 in 2018. And James Smith was a good candidate too. A young military veteran who served in Afghanistan. He still had no chance.

The funny thing is, despite 2010 being a red wave and it being an open seat, SC was actually quite close in GOV-2010.

That had a lot to do with Haley being an Indian American and a woman more than anything else. This is South Carolina after all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're not gonna have a typical midterm, if you look at the news Trump has committed Espionage and Centrist Republican act like it's a Typical midterm and Rs are gonna win WI first of Kleefisch isn't the Nominee and Biden is already in Wall Street Journal poll at 50 percent, Trump was never at 50 percent, this early before EDay

So, I am no blind user that make nut maps I have been doing this since 2004 and if you make an exact prediction it can be wrong like if you make an R nut map, it can be wrong, I rather lose pts on overpredicted than Underpredicted because of course I am a D not an R

Once we solidify 53 Senators regardless of the H we can win the TRIFECTA in 2024 and Rick Scott is gonna be challenged by Gwen GRAHAM

DC Statehood

[Schiff for Senate]

Joe would be a great governor and he's running on some good ideas. Legalizing pot, gambling, keeping abortion legal, and ending the state income tax. He's the best nominee the Democrats could make. But SC is a 55-44 state; 52-45 in bad years for Republicans.

McMaster hasn't been a great governor, but he will have an R next to his name, and that will be enough to get him re-elected.

Huh, wasn't expecting it to be this close. It's too bad this isn't a 2018-type wave year, Cunningham may have had a shot since McMaster only won by like 3 or 4 in 2018.

Cunningham is a strong recruit though and McMaster doesn't seem to be that popular.

Either way, if a Dem is only down 8 in SC, what does that mean for the rest of the races, esp swing states?

Nah, McMaster won by 8 in 2018. And James Smith was a good candidate too. A young military veteran who served in Afghanistan. He still had no chance.

The funny thing is, despite 2010 being a red wave and it being an open seat, SC was actually quite close in GOV-2010.

That had a lot to do with Haley being an Indian American and a woman more than anything else. This is South Carolina after all.

Truly sad. Being Indian-American should be a reason to vote FOR someone, not against them.

[Roll Roons]

Joe would be a great governor and he's running on some good ideas. Legalizing pot, gambling, keeping abortion legal, and ending the state income tax. He's the best nominee the Democrats could make. But SC is a 55-44 state; 52-45 in bad years for Republicans.

McMaster hasn't been a great governor, but he will have an R next to his name, and that will be enough to get him re-elected.

Huh, wasn't expecting it to be this close. It's too bad this isn't a 2018-type wave year, Cunningham may have had a shot since McMaster only won by like 3 or 4 in 2018.

Cunningham is a strong recruit though and McMaster doesn't seem to be that popular.

Either way, if a Dem is only down 8 in SC, what does that mean for the rest of the races, esp swing states?

Nah, McMaster won by 8 in 2018. And James Smith was a good candidate too. A young military veteran who served in Afghanistan. He still had no chance.

The funny thing is, despite 2010 being a red wave and it being an open seat, SC was actually quite close in GOV-2010.

That had a lot to do with Haley being an Indian American and a woman more than anything else. This is South Carolina after all.

Haley won the Republican primary against three better-known white men. This is also the same state where a black Republican Senator routinely outperforms his white counterpart.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Joe would be a great governor and he's running on some good ideas. Legalizing pot, gambling, keeping abortion legal, and ending the state income tax. He's the best nominee the Democrats could make. But SC is a 55-44 state; 52-45 in bad years for Republicans.

McMaster hasn't been a great governor, but he will have an R next to his name, and that will be enough to get him re-elected.

Huh, wasn't expecting it to be this close. It's too bad this isn't a 2018-type wave year, Cunningham may have had a shot since McMaster only won by like 3 or 4 in 2018.

Cunningham is a strong recruit though and McMaster doesn't seem to be that popular.

Either way, if a Dem is only down 8 in SC, what does that mean for the rest of the races, esp swing states?

Nah, McMaster won by 8 in 2018. And James Smith was a good candidate too. A young military veteran who served in Afghanistan. He still had no chance.

The funny thing is, despite 2010 being a red wave and it being an open seat, SC was actually quite close in GOV-2010.

That had a lot to do with Haley being an Indian American and a woman more than anything else. This is South Carolina after all.

Haley won the Republican primary against three better-known white men. This is also the same state where a black Republican Senator routinely outperforms his white counterpart.

Wasn’t the real reason of it being close due to the scandal of the previous R SC administration dragging down the entire ticket?

As noted above, she had to win a GOP primary to become governor, and Tim Scott wins like 94% of the white vote in this state every time he runs. But by all means, don’t let reality stand in the way of narratives

[Coldstream]

McMaster always seems to be generally disliked by everyone, he was just right place right time with his endorsement of Trump (who he doesn’t even seem to have anything in common with). He’ll still win, but it’s not surprising it’s not overwhelming.