AZ-GOV (RMG Research): Lake +2

[wbrocks67]

Kari Lake (R) 46%
Katie Hobbs (D) 44%

https://www.thecentersquare.com/arizona/poll-az-voters-divided-on-abortion-energy-subsidies-united-against-higher-taxes-and-bad-economy/article_5f59ac06-254e-11ed-afb6-d77a76fe5437.html

The same poll has Mark Kelly up 7, 50-43.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Still a tossup. Really doesn't tell us much actually. But it's obvious that Kelly is going to outperform Hobbs, win or lose.

[Devout Centrist]

RMG believes that asking the right questions and properly interpreting the results is the key to any successful research project. Unfortunately, many public pollsters continue to ask questions and interpret the results from the perspective of a Georgetown cocktail party. That’s a perspective few Americans share developed in a language that few Americans speak.

RMG’s Counterpolling™ technique is a system for asking questions in the language of everyday Americans. This approach surfaces the gaps—often huge—between the political elite and the nation they are supposed to serve.

[Spectator]

Kelly won’t outperform Hobbs all that much.

[SnowLabrador]

I stand by my prediction of Lake winning by 1-2 points, with the Senate race being a pure tossup. A split outcome would be surprising, but not shocking. Hobbs is running a terrible campaign.

[Inmate Trump]

A Lake win would undermine democracy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Newswoman and AstroNUT. Gotta love American voters lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MOE, our VBM is the best there is, but there is some concern that because of the Recession the younger people won't come out it can very well be a 65/60 M not 80)75 M Electorate, but we should win AZ

[Duke of York]

A Lake win would undermine democracy.

I think she will. From what i've heard Hobbs is running a terrible campaign and barely campaigning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think poll is reflecting the decline of voters rather than decline in partianship as I said in my previous statement it's no coincidence that we're not gonna get a 80/75 M turnout but a 65/60 M turnout but we won blue wall states in 2012/2018 based on 65/60 M tutnout too younger voters don't turnout that much in Midterms, complicated by the ongoing Recession and Pandemic

[Alben Barkley]

Kelly’s outperforming Hobbs by 9 points according to this poll. Doubt.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kelly’s outperforming Hobbs by 9 points according to this poll. Doubt.

I mean privatizing SS is not a popular position lol.

[Spectator]

Kelly’s outperforming Hobbs by 9 points according to this poll. Doubt.

I mean privatizing SS is not a popular position lol.

Sure. But neither is running on 2020 was stolen and that’s all Lake is doing. The spread is not believable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's within MOE users are so worried just like the FL Gov and OH Sen 5 pts and we're gonna be early voting in 4 weeks anyways

[wbrocks67]

A Lake win would undermine democracy.

I think she will. From what i've heard Hobbs is running a terrible campaign and barely campaigning.

All you have to do is look at her Twitter account to see that's not true (the barely campaigning)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kelly’s outperforming Hobbs by 9 points according to this poll. Doubt.

I mean privatizing SS is not a popular position lol.

Sure. But neither is running on 2020 was stolen and that’s all Lake is doing. The spread is not believable.

I agree her electoral views are toxic, but she's attacking Hobbs on the right issues(unlike say. Herschel Walker and Tudor Dixon), and Hobbs just seems incompetent as far as campaigning goes

[President Johnson]

Yeah, the gap between Kelly and Hobbs is questionable. I could still see a split outcome here, though with neither race being decided by more than two points.

How well known is Lake at this point in time? I could see her numbers going down once people notice that she's not a standard Republican but a far-right lunatic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, the gap between Kelly and Hobbs is questionable. I could still see a split outcome here, though with neither race being decided by more than two points.

How well known is Lake at this point in time? I could see her numbers going down once people notice that she's not a standard Republican but a far-right lunatic.

It's within the MOE the early vote is VBM starting at the End Sept our Early GOTV is much better than Rs., Especially in blue states and we should win AZ we might not get 80)75 M it's a Midterm but we probably get 65/60 M enough to win AZ

[AZdude]

For what it's worth, Mark Kelly and Blake Masters are all over the airwaves here right now, along with some lethal anti-Blake Masters abortion stuff from the DSCC.  Absolutely ZILCH from either Hobbs or Lake.

[AZdude]

How well known is Lake at this point in time? I could see her numbers going down once people notice that she's not a standard Republican but a far-right lunatic.

I've talked before about how Lake has extremely high name rec here in Maricopa County due to her time as a newscaster on the top-rated news show.  For all that Katie Hobbs may post on Twitter, she currently has no presence on the airwaves here (neither does Lake).  But if Katie Hobbs doesn't start getting loud about Lake's insanity, this race could get away from her.

And because of Lake's name rec, I wouldn't count on Kelly dragging Hobbs across the finish line.  As others have said, Mark Kelly is a uniquely compelling candidate anyway, and there's no evidence that's  going to trickle down to other candidates.

(Which means I'm REALLY nervous about the Secretary of State race, because very few people other than political nerds like us know how horrifying Finchem is. If this race becomes Generic-R vs Generic-D, that could be very bad news.)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Kelly’s outperforming Hobbs by 9 points according to this poll. Doubt.

I mean privatizing SS is not a popular position lol.

Sure. But neither is running on 2020 was stolen and that’s all Lake is doing. The spread is not believable.

I think you're overestimating the average voter, especially those who split their tickets...well, that applies to you too I guess; but you're being more consistent in your split decision.

[citizenZ]

Lake seems to have some momentum.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's within the MOE, just a reminder when a poll within MOE just like in 202o Blk and Brown support carries D's threw not the other way around Ossoff, Warnock, Evers and Beshear won by 50 K vites

That's why my signature is full of Blk and Brown support, the Rs won 1 race when it was close DeSantis v Gillum and he won by .19 all the others they lost including WI Gov in 2018, KY Gov 2019