If you're a Republican, what's the hope at this point to still have a big night?

[sg0508]

In what has been a brutal six months (even more) for the GOP, a lot has gone wrong, and even McConnell and other Republicans (Rick Scott) have hinted things aren't going that well for them.  There's actually a chance that in all the gubernatorial and senatorial races, the republicans do not turn a single democratic seat red.  Additionally, the one-off races that we've seen have certainly indicated that democrats and independents are fired up and showing up, even if they're not winning these races.

That being said, there's still around 70 days to go.  What gives the Republicans hope that they can still win bigger than expected at this point in the House, possibly hold all the "should be" GOP seats in the Senate and statehouses and maybe pickoff a few gubernatorial seats to offset coming losses in MD, MA, etc?

[Ferguson97]

The GOP doesn't need a massive majority to stop Biden's agenda, they just need 218 Representatives and 51 Senators.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Historical precedent and flawed polls. That's really it.

Still, that could be enough if they end up being true.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The GOP doesn't need a massive majority to stop Biden's agenda, they just need 218 Representatives and 51 Senators.

That’s 218 Representatives OR 51 Senators.

[Ferguson97]

The GOP doesn't need a massive majority to stop Biden's agenda, they just need 218 Representatives and 51 Senators.

That’s 218 Representatives OR 51 Senators.

Biden can still confirm judges with a 50-50 Senate, even if there's 435 Republicans in the House.

[Xing]

Other than polling errors, the fact that it’s still August.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If you use 2020 results for House districts and Senate Seats, the GOP should get away with winning both chambers for an environment more favorable than D + 2. Rn, most polling predicts Rs are doing slightly better than this and given historic polling errors, the real GCB may be closer to something like R + 2.

While Republican's would probably like to win more governorships and state legislatures that seem increasingly out of reach, their main goal for 2022 is stopping Biden's agenda, including stopping his ability to confirm justices.

[UncleSam]

Honestly this boils down to a few things:
1. Abortion fades as a key issue, likely because Rs pump the breaks on passing crazy bans and significantly soften their national language on it (this is unlikely because it would involve Rs being not crazy)
2. Biden continues to struggle to speak in coherent sentences or even worsens in the months to come
3. Inflation stays at 9%+ on an annual basis
4. R senate candidates pick up fundraising post Labor Day and stop making as many gaffes down the stretch
5. Some other unforeseen event causes Dems / Biden to drop in popularity again (ACA premium hikes in October, China attacking and capturing Taiwan with little to no US resistance, etc.)

Any combination of the above would help Rs. It’s actually hard to envision things getting significantly worse for Rs than they are right now but you never know, where there’s crazy there’s always the potential for further insanity. Betting against Oz making further gaffes seems like a losers’ bet to me.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Honestly this boils down to a few things:
1. Abortion fades as a key issue, likely because Rs pump the breaks on passing crazy bans and significantly soften their national language on it (this is unlikely because it would involve Rs being not crazy)
2. Biden continues to struggle to speak in coherent sentences or even worsens in the months to come
3. Inflation stays at 9%+ on an annual basis
4. R senate candidates pick up fundraising post Labor Day and stop making as many gaffes down the stretch
5. Some other unforeseen event causes Dems / Biden to drop in popularity again (ACA premium hikes in October, China attacking and capturing Taiwan with little to no US resistance, etc.)

Any combination of the above would help Rs. It’s actually hard to envision things getting significantly worse for Rs than they are right now but you never know, where there’s crazy there’s always the potential for further insanity. Betting against Oz making further gaffes seems like a losers’ bet to me.

The IRA extended subsidies.

Also, people mad about ACA prices will certainly vote for Republicans, who have a solid plan to expand and protect it.

[UncleSam]

Honestly this boils down to a few things:
1. Abortion fades as a key issue, likely because Rs pump the breaks on passing crazy bans and significantly soften their national language on it (this is unlikely because it would involve Rs being not crazy)
2. Biden continues to struggle to speak in coherent sentences or even worsens in the months to come
3. Inflation stays at 9%+ on an annual basis
4. R senate candidates pick up fundraising post Labor Day and stop making as many gaffes down the stretch
5. Some other unforeseen event causes Dems / Biden to drop in popularity again (ACA premium hikes in October, China attacking and capturing Taiwan with little to no US resistance, etc.)

Any combination of the above would help Rs. It’s actually hard to envision things getting significantly worse for Rs than they are right now but you never know, where there’s crazy there’s always the potential for further insanity. Betting against Oz making further gaffes seems like a losers’ bet to me.

The IRA extended subsidies.

Also, people mad about ACA prices will certainly vote for Republicans, who have a solid plan to expand and protect it.

Sadly that’s not how peoples brains work. It is how rational people with deduction skills think, but that is the clear minority of the American electorate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Two things already said:

1. A polling error, at least election results compared to today.

2. It's still 2 months out and things can shift. It's not a huge shift that's needed and the GOP even now is still favored to take the House.

[Senator Incitatus]

The Republican Party is becoming better, nominating better candidates, so even stasis in their number of seats is a net positive for me. I'm not some freak party loyalist, though, so maybe this question wasn't for me.

[soundchaser]

The Republican Party is becoming better, nominating better candidates

I'm pretty sure this is objectively untrue.

[BigSerg]

100% Wait for winter

[OSR stands with Israel]

100% Wait for winter

The election takes place before the winter

[bagelman]

Armed "volunteers" ensuring "election integrity".

[BigSerg]

100% Wait for winter

The election takes place before the winter

For me, November is already winter. Anyway, at the end of September the good stuff will come.

[OSR stands with Israel]

100% Wait for winter

The election takes place before the winter

For me, November is already winter. Anyway, at the end of September the good stuff will come.

What good stuff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Two things already said:

1. A polling error, at least election results compared to today.

2. It's still 2 months out and things can shift. It's not a huge shift that's needed and the GOP even now is still favored to take the House.

Lol do you know when VBM urban vote take place Oct 1/31st not Nov EDay the rural vote votes last in Nov Niden Approvals are the Highest since Sept 11th 2021 when Gov Newsom won the recall the best for Ds not Rs are yet to come that's why Crist is only behind 51/46 and he will pick Gwen Graham as his running mate that's why Crist is begging girl Biden endorsement abd that Vance 50/45 lead is the same as DeSantis 51/46 lead 5 pts MOE it's not 20 pts


Gillum was up 52/46 a month before EDay DeSantis won by .18not 20 pts

You say the same thing oh the Rs get all the undecided votes how did Mary Peltola and  Pat Ryan win we over perform in VBM early votes


I don't expect Old School to get it he still believes that R wave that won't happen , lol Kelly is up 10 pts  if it was an R wave Masters would of been in front by now

[Gracile]

Hope that polls are way off again (not an unreasonable expectation) and that special election results will be unrepresentative because turnout differentials favor highly motivated members of the Democratic base, while a higher turnout election in November could potentially bring out more GOP voters. That second point would still be problematic for them, as it would probably limit their possibility for significant gains and they would probably get less crossover appeal from soft Dem leaners than they would have if the election took place a year ago.

[RI]

I'm not feeling much hope at the moment. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong since about May. Republicans basically need inflation to pick back up and some major/external event to occur which pushes the conversation back toward issues they're stronger on or which make the Dems look weak/bad or for the left to completely overplay their hand on some major issue. No idea what that would be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hope that polls are way off again (not an unreasonable expectation) and that special election results will be unrepresentative because turnout differentials favor highly motivated members of the Democratic base, while a higher turnout election in November could potentially bring out more GOP voters. That second point would still be problematic for them, as it would probably limit their possibility for significant gains and they would probably get less crossover appeal from soft Dem leaners than they would have if the election took place a year ago.

I seriously doubt that the early vote which I said in my previously statement from Oct 1/31 will be heavy GOP favored the urban vote like we saw in NY 19 is heavily D and the rural vote will bee R they won't be tabulated until November EDay

[Nyvin]

The Republican Party is becoming better, nominating better candidates,

?-?-?-?-?-?-?-?-?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not feeling much hope at the moment. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong since about May. Republicans basically need inflation to pick back up and some major/external event to occur which pushes the conversation back toward issues they're stronger on or which make the Dems look weak/bad or for the left to completely overplay their hand on some major issue. No idea what that would be.

The Rs haven't cracked the blue wall since 2016 and they needed help with Trump with Jill Stein and Gary Johnson with Hillary had we ran Bernie or Martin OMalley Trump would have LOST in 2016 inflation, Masters haven't lead in a single poll pre Dobbs 40/39 Kelly post Dobbs 50/43

It's the same blue wall map that we left off at after 2020

The Rs lost 3* to Biden 2* as Veep and one time as Prez and will again in 24

[BigSerg]

100% Wait for winter

The election takes place before the winter

For me, November is already winter. Anyway, at the end of September the good stuff will come.

What good stuff

I think there will be a very serious energy crisis in Europe and that will affect the economy and inflation rate.