Theory: gop struggling to get a wave going because covid killed so many repubs

[Matty]

Of the million covid dead, about 750000 have been repubs

250,000 have been dems

That’s a huge discrepancy that is literally impacting the numbers

I don’t have the math in front of me, but I’d imagine that 500,000 margin would impact a midterm election by around 1-2 points

[Brittain33]

No.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Covid deaths were too heavily numerous among minorities for them to have this much of an impact, no?

[Brittain33]

Covid was only the third largest cause of death in 2021.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Covid was only the third largest cause of death in 2021.

What I'm saying is that even if Covid deaths were enough of an impact on the electorate, its impact was not as limited to one party's elderly voters for it to make such a net difference.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think this could only affect the outcome of an extremely close election like Florida 2000, which Bush won by a little over 500 votes.

[Pollster]

I think the idea that COVID deaths are the reason they can't get a wave to materialize is certainly far-fetched and fanciful, but can certainly see COVID deaths being a factor in races that are decided by <500 or so votes.

[Oryxslayer]

No.

However, the GOP may have a different permeant turnout problem. Its not hard to believe that screaming fraud constantly turns people away from the polls cause they see them to be rigged and nothing is being done, which prompts more Dem wins and more GOP claims of fraud, then more voters leave the electorate, and so on in a vicious cycle.

There however are two key points to this. One, we won't really know this is potentially happening until the data becomes too large to ignore, and that is not the case right now. Two, history shows that people who decide to actively withdraw from civic life permanently in this manner are simply shifting their trust to extracurricular grassroots institutions which will 'fix' government, potentially by violence...

[WD]

Try not to overdose on that copium

[Xing]

Then why was 2021 so good for them?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I highly doubt this makes enough of a difference anywhere. Stop looking for excuses. Republicans are out-of-touch with the average American and Democrats specifically are simply going out of their way at the ballot box to make sure you finally realize it, even more so amidst fortunes changing in the favor of the Biden administration.

At least you're admitting the reality that there may not be a wave. I can appreciate that.

[UncleSam]

The vast bulk of COVID deaths were in the extremely sick / elderly who likely would have died within a year or two of other causes anyway. Even if you assume that all ~1M deaths would still be alive today (in reality, probably only 200-300k would be), many of those would be so sick that voting would not be at the forefront of their mind / they would not be super likely to vote. In addition, as others have said, minority communities were hit extremely hard by COVID, so it’s hard to see this argument holding much water.

MAYBE there was a 500k registration / party ID differential in deaths (in reality the gap is probably less than half of that), and MAYBE the vast majority of those would still be alive today if not for COVID (again, probably less than half of those people would be). Even if that was the case, I’d imagine that actual turnout for this group would be about equal to nationwide turnout numbers at absolute best (and would probably be lower), so I’d say the absolute max votes lost for Rs is:

~ 500k * .9 (not dead from other causes) * .5 (midterm turnout) = 225k votes.

In 2018 this would have translated to ~.2% of the vote. And this is with pretty much maximal assumptions in favor of the impact. Maybe it swings one or two races on the margins, as others have said, but the numbers just aren’t there to make THAT big of a swing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs don't understand that poor people pay payroll taxes 15% is taken out for SSA and Medicare and state income tax the middle class and rich people pay an income tax 35% that pays the bulk of the taxes 40% of tax revenue come from the poor and middle class but 60 comes from the upper middle class and rich

The other 3 percent tax that you pay is insurance you may pay up to 50.00 every two weeks for Health insurance that's 18/20 percent so if you get 400 weekly working part time that's 20 percent taken out.

The Rs cut taxes for the wealthiest among us we don't need tax cuts if you are paying only payroll taxes

That's the math the 1.5 T that Reagan, Bush W and Trump each cut taxes from 40 percent to 35 percent we make what peoplemaking over 100 K make such as a Doctor, Nurse or Teacher

If you are a waiter or cashier you pay payroll taxes not income tax that's the fuzzy math

I keep saying this to blue avatars, but they don't get it why would a cashier or waiter want a 40/35 percent tax cut and we blue collar workers only pay payroll taxes not income taxes

The wealthy pays for charities anyways that's entitlement, Trump has 2.2 B in wealth and give a large sum of his money to charity that's entitlement so they can give it other Entitlements

That's why it's a 303 map we left exactly off where we were at in 2020, there is no R wave when it's a Neutral Environment no matter how low Biden Approvals go

[7,052,770]

I think it's safe to say that a clear supermajority of post-vaccine COVID deaths would have been politically motivated Republicans, but before the vaccine, it was more of an even split, or even majority Democratic.

[MATTROSE94]

Interesting theory. I would say they COVID deaths were mostly Democratic in states like New York and California, but mostly Republican in states like Florida, Texas, and the Rust Belt.

[Nyvin]

Something about this seems kinda morbid.

[walleye26]

I actually ran an analysis on this in Wisconsin. I looked at ages of those who died, counties where they died, and ran the numbers. What I found was that doing “addition by subtraction” (since counties death rates skewed old and conservative) Democrats would “gain” a mere 2,000 votes statewide. That’s statistically zero.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this brings up a general discussion about how deaths overall (not just from covid), that tend to skew very old and young people replacing them inpacts the electorate.

[Adam Griffin]

Some people saying "no" haven't done their due diligence in research and psephology on the impact of COVID on partisan death rates. To be clear, it's not enough to change a "red wave" to a "red ripple" or neutral climate, but it could be enough to affect 1 or more Senate outcomes and a handful of individual House races.

I ran multiple projections along demographic lines back in 2021: it was fairly consistently a 2:1 disadvantage for Republicans regardless of which combination of metrics used (2 dead GOP for every 1 DEM). Of course, an average pool of COVID deaths being as politically engaged as a standard pool of voters is unlikely - but regardless, a 2:1 drop-off against the GOP is still more or less guaranteed. Perhaps 450k GOP versus 225k DEM as opposed to using the full number, but still: Republicans lost at minimum a couple hundred thousand net voters nationally compared to Democrats since the beginning of the pandemic (i.e. the average 2022 House race decided by fewer than 1,000 votes or Senate race by fewer than 5,000 votes will likely be due to COVID*).

Obviously, it's not enough to affect major GCB figures on a national level, but could possibly be the difference in a sliver of effectively 50/50 races.

*EDIT: in 2020, there were 3 House races decided by fewer than 1,000 votes.

[Brittain33]

Some people saying "no" haven't done their due diligence in research and psephology on the impact of COVID on partisan death rates. To be clear, it's not enough to change a "red wave" to a "red ripple" or neutral climate, but it could be enough to affect 1 or more Senate outcomes and a handful of individual House races.

True, I’m going off an episode of the 538 podcast where Nate Silver said they get this question all the time, it’s inappropriate and they’re not going to do it, but because it mostly affected elderly people and never became the top cause of death, the impact was likely minimal and undetectable among other factors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why there isn't an R wave like in 2010)14 is because we had 90 M voters since 2016 it's been 135 M voters it's true we're not gonna get a 150 M like in 2020 but a 135 M cements the blue wall and wave insurance depends on where that vote is coming from

Users think OH Biden has the same Approvals as Obama must be an R wave but Trump netted seats in 2018/20 with Biden Approvals

Biden Approvals are down just like Trump Approvals are down because opposition party strongly disapproves, Trump and Biden enjoy record High Approvals in their own party

The reason why Biden was at 60 because everyone gotten a stimulus check that was initiated during Trump administration the last Stimulus check we gotten, in March 2021 so naturally Rs back then Approve of him but not now

So, naturally Old School, 2016 Matty and Big Serg are gonna say R wave with Biden low Approvals what 7 percent of Rs Approve of Biden, but 86 percent of D's Approve of Biden, but Trump is worth 2.2 B dollars more than most celebrities other than Oprah what is he gonna give to poor people the ones that pay pay roll taxes not income taxes zilch , he already gave millionaires a tax cut and will duplicate it again if he gets back into office

[7,052,770]

Some people saying "no" haven't done their due diligence in research and psephology on the impact of COVID on partisan death rates. To be clear, it's not enough to change a "red wave" to a "red ripple" or neutral climate, but it could be enough to affect 1 or more Senate outcomes and a handful of individual House races.

True, I’m going off an episode of the 538 podcast where Nate Silver said they get this question all the time, it’s inappropriate and they’re not going to do it, but because it mostly affected elderly people and never became the top cause of death, the impact was likely minimal and undetectable among other factors.

I can see why they don't want to touch it with a 10 foot pole, but all of these factors combined point pretty heavily toward the impact not being minimal:

• 70% of American COVID deaths came after the vaccine was available
• Almost every COVID death after this point was unvaccinated
• Most unvaccinated people were making a conscious, politically-influenced choice not to be unvaccinated, as opposed to just laziness or lack of availability

[ProgressiveModerate]

Some people saying "no" haven't done their due diligence in research and psephology on the impact of COVID on partisan death rates. To be clear, it's not enough to change a "red wave" to a "red ripple" or neutral climate, but it could be enough to affect 1 or more Senate outcomes and a handful of individual House races.

I ran multiple projections along demographic lines back in 2021: it was fairly consistently a 2:1 disadvantage for Republicans regardless of which combination of metrics used (2 dead GOP for every 1 DEM). Of course, an average pool of COVID deaths being as politically engaged as a standard pool of voters is unlikely - but regardless, a 2:1 drop-off against the GOP is still more or less guaranteed. Perhaps 450k GOP versus 225k DEM as opposed to using the full number, but still: Republicans lost at minimum a couple hundred thousand net voters nationally compared to Democrats since the beginning of the pandemic (i.e. the average 2022 House race decided by fewer than 1,000 votes or Senate race by fewer than 5,000 votes will likely be due to COVID*).

Obviously, it's not enough to affect major GCB figures on a national level, but could possibly be the difference in a sliver of effectively 50/50 races.

*EDIT: in 2020, there were 3 House races decided by fewer than 1,000 votes.

Just curious how did you run your projections? I would think a county-by-county level model of deaths would show neutral results especially sense the densest counties tended to have higher death rates by nature of being first (and Dems obviously tend to win teh densest counties).