Why did Obama underperform in Massachusetts?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

https://twitter.com/SpecialPuppy1/status/1562623634182549507?s=20&t=5PF8UO4k...

[TDAS04]

Well, Massachusetts barely swinging in 2008 can be explained by Kerry’s home state advantage.  As for 2012, Obama’s opponent was a former Massachusetts Governor (Romney still got crushed, btw).

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Well, Massachusetts barely swinging in 2008 can be explained by Kerry’s home state advantage.  As for 2012, Obama’s opponent was a former Massachusetts Governor (Romney still got crushed, btw).

Kerry only did 2 points better than Gore who had Nader getting over 6%. And Hillary matched Obama's 2012 performance. So I'm not sure how much home state advantage explains here.

[TDAS04]

Well, Massachusetts barely swinging in 2008 can be explained by Kerry’s home state advantage.  As for 2012, Obama’s opponent was a former Massachusetts Governor (Romney still got crushed, btw).

Kerry only did 2 points better than Gore who had Nader getting over 6%. And Hillary matched Obama's 2012 performance. So I'm not sure how much home state advantage explains here.

Most of the urban Northeast swung sharply towards Bush; he went from losing Rhode Island by 29 points to losing it by only 21.  Similar swings towards Bush in NY/NJ/CT.  I think Kerry’s home state advantage mitigated that trend in Massachusetts.

[TheTide]

McCain and Romney weren't the worst GOP candidates for Massachusetts even with their right wing pandering. The former could have done a bit better with an inoffensive running mate (like, say, Romney himself or maybe Pawlenty).

[Sol]

There are some areas in the Northeast (iirc some of the NYC suburbs have evidence of this too) where the election patterns are very suggestive of outright racism as an electoral factor.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

There are some areas in the Northeast (iirc some of the NYC suburbs have evidence of this too) where the election patterns are very suggestive of outright racism as an electoral factor.

Impossible, only Appalachians would ever 😇

[If my soul was made of stone]

There are some areas in the Northeast (iirc some of the NYC suburbs have evidence of this too) where the election patterns are very suggestive of outright racism as an electoral factor.

This is a Bronz threaf

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

There are some areas in the Northeast (iirc some of the NYC suburbs have evidence of this too) where the election patterns are very suggestive of outright racism as an electoral factor.

This, I've studied various Massachusetts towns closely which seem to indicate this. There's one suburb of Boston (I can't remember which exactly) that was Kerry-McCain and also a town George Wallace did well in in 72. Ironically though I've noticed that in MA specifically a lot of these places swung towards Hillary in 2016 which is unusual since most other areas with a Kerry-McCain swing saw Democrats fall off even harder post-Obama. I guess Massachusetts racists have other stuff going on like a general sort of elitism.

[If my soul was made of stone]

There are some areas in the Northeast (iirc some of the NYC suburbs have evidence of this too) where the election patterns are very suggestive of outright racism as an electoral factor.

This, I've studied various Massachusetts towns closely which seem to indicate this. There's one suburb of Boston (I can't remember which exactly) that was Kerry-McCain and also a town George Wallace did well in in 72. Ironically though I've noticed that in MA specifically a lot of these places swung towards Hillary in 2016 which is unusual since most other areas with a Kerry-McCain swing saw Democrats fall off even harder post-Obama. I guess Massachusetts racists have other stuff going on like a general sort of elitism.

1972 Democratic Presidential primary in Massachusetts [DO NOT RESEARCH]

[DPKdebator]

There are some areas in the Northeast (iirc some of the NYC suburbs have evidence of this too) where the election patterns are very suggestive of outright racism as an electoral factor.

This, I've studied various Massachusetts towns closely which seem to indicate this. There's one suburb of Boston (I can't remember which exactly) that was Kerry-McCain and also a town George Wallace did well in in 72. Ironically though I've noticed that in MA specifically a lot of these places swung towards Hillary in 2016 which is unusual since most other areas with a Kerry-McCain swing saw Democrats fall off even harder post-Obama. I guess Massachusetts racists have other stuff going on like a general sort of elitism.

Two factors that contribute to towns that swung R in 2008 moving hard to the left in more recent elections are generational turnover and gentrification. Such towns in MA tended to be more blue-collar and overwhelmingly white and there was likely a racial component to it as well. Since 2008, many of the suburbs have started to become more diverse (going from ~90-95% white in 2000 to ~75-85% white today), older blue collar whites have passed away, and younger millennial whites (who are more college educated/irreligious/white collar/left-wing than previous generations of MA Dems) have moved to suburban areas in greater numbers. MA's population growth was pretty weak from 1980 to 2010, but it shot up by 500k (7.4%) by 2020, mainly due to tech/biotech/education jobs, which tend to attract more liberal demographics. House prices in my hometown have doubled in the last 15 years, a common occurrence in metro Boston, and the types of people who could've afforded these communities in the past are getting priced out. The blue collar towns that have stayed stagnant or moved hard to the right tend to be further away from Boston proper and have experienced less urbanization and demographic change. 1996 is an interesting benchmark to compare 2020 with, since the margin of victory for Bill Clinton and Biden were within 1% of each other, but there are massive differences in town voting patterns. Clinton won all but eight towns (only one of which voted for Trump either time!), while Biden won an overwhelming but lesser count of 298 out of 351.

[Sol]

In Boston proper McCain actually won a few precincts in South Boston and one in eastern Dorchester (precincts which voted Clinton and Biden), which I think points to gentrification to some extent, at least for the former. I wish DRA had 2012 results.