Wasserman: Red wave outlook downgraded to a ripple; Dems maintaining control not out of question

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562476651014893568

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was never gonna be 25 seats it was ALWAYS 10/15 seats 235/210RH and 50/56 D SEN median 235R/H and 52/48 D Sen making it manageable if D's get 55 Senators that can win 12 seats in 24

That's why Ds are focused on OH, NC and FL so we can have wave insurance for the Senate in 24 and win the House back, Biden is on the ballot on 24 the H will be easier to win with Biden on the ballot and Biden is running unless D's get landslided in Midterms

Trump and the R brand is damaged due to Criminal insurrection probe

[xavier110]

If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?

• Candidate quality - GOP nominating people who can’t match Youngkin
• Roe / Trump buffoonery - GOP excesses outweigh D overreach (and implicitly some Youngkin voters would now have chosen Terry?)
• Turnout - the Dems now have a stronger grip on more reliable voters
• Turnout with an asterisk - the Ds may win specials, but Reps will still show in Nov

I think 2021 suggests it’s a mix of 1,2, and 4.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?

Dobbs.

I mean, it's all of the above, but Dobbs is more important than everything else combined, with the exception of a handful of truly awful GOP Senate candidates.

[Alben Barkley]

If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?

• Candidate quality - GOP nominating people who can’t match Youngkin
• Roe / Trump buffoonery - GOP excesses outweigh D overreach (and implicitly some Youngkin voters would now have chosen Terry?)
• Turnout - the Dems now have a stronger grip on more reliable voters
• Turnout with an asterisk - the Ds may win specials, but Reps will still show in Nov

I think 2021 suggests it’s a mix of 1,2, and 4.

Youngkin's win was always overblown as meaning more than it ever did. State politics are very different from national politics, and he barely won. It would be like expecting Biden to win Kentucky because Beshear narrowly won in 2019.

And I see little evidence or reason to believe Dems will have much higher turnout advantage in specials compared to November.

Anyway, 2 is THE big thing, and that can be seen in the fact that the tide started turning for Dems literally right after Dobbs. That suddenly changed the whole game. The election ceased to be about critical race theory nonsense or whatever, or even inflation/the economy (which is now improving anyway), and started to be about women's rights. Ironically Dobbs was the worst thing that could have happened to Republicans, a Pyrrhic victory/dog caught the car moment if I ever saw one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Youngkin won when everything was blocked by Rs except for infrastructure the Rs are blocking legislation not D's just like McConnell tell lies and say Democracy is sound and the Rs have Gerrymandering the H with this right wing CRT , so Youngkin win came when Biden Approvals tanked he is on the upswing now

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?

Dobbs.

I mean, it's all of the above, but Dobbs is more important than everything else combined, with the exception of a handful of truly awful GOP Senate candidates.

And those awful candidates mostly - Oz is perhaps an exception, given that his main issue is being an out of touch celebrity who doesn't even live here - reinforce the problems Republicans have had post-Dobbs.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?

• Candidate quality - GOP nominating people who can’t match Youngkin
• Roe / Trump buffoonery - GOP excesses outweigh D overreach (and implicitly some Youngkin voters would now have chosen Terry?)
• Turnout - the Dems now have a stronger grip on more reliable voters
• Turnout with an asterisk - the Ds may win specials, but Reps will still show in Nov

I think 2021 suggests it’s a mix of 1,2, and 4.

COVID is also less relevant, and it allows Democratic Governors to be able to ignore the issue since nobody of any political background seems to significantly care anymore.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"I know my friend was forced to carry the baby of a rapist to full term, but milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners. Voting R LOL!"

And Republicans wonder why they aren't up by like 6-7% as they could be if they weren't as insane.

[Progressive Pessimist]

"I know my friend was forced to carry the baby of a rapist to full term, but milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners. Voting R LOL!"

And Republicans wonder why they aren't up by like 6-7% as they could be if they weren't as insane.

I must admit that I was under the impression that this would be a mainstream position, post-Dobbs. I perhaps condescendingly underestimated other Americans, and I am sorry that I did.

[Del Tachi]

"I know my friend was forced to carry the baby of a rapist to full term, but milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners. Voting R LOL!"

And Republicans wonder why they aren't up by like 6-7% as they could be if they weren't as insane.

Do you seriously think there are more Americans with friends carrying rape babies than there are Americans who buy milk?  The economy is still by and far the #1 issue when you poll Americans

And that's the key to why Democrats are performing better in the GCB/specials:  economic indicators are much better now than they were 2-3 months ago.  July was a good month for stocks.  Gas prices are down.  Inflation peaked.   

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

"I know my friend was forced to carry the baby of a rapist to full term, but milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners. Voting R LOL!"

And Republicans wonder why they aren't up by like 6-7% as they could be if they weren't as insane.

I must admit that I was under the impression that this would be a mainstream position, post-Dobbs. I perhaps condescendingly underestimated other Americans, and I am sorry that I did.

The reason why I always suspected that striking down Roe could have a major impact was how many states already had trigger laws in effect. This wasn't something that was going to be abstract, and it wasn't going to take months or years to start causing problems, it was going to have a real, tangible, immediate impact across a large swath of the country, and, most importantly, the country was not remotely prepared for that sort of sudden change.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1562285083402420224

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"I know my friend was forced to carry the baby of a rapist to full term, but milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners. Voting R LOL!"

And Republicans wonder why they aren't up by like 6-7% as they could be if they weren't as insane.

Do you seriously think there are more Americans with friends carrying rape babies than there are Americans who buy milk?  The economy is still by and far the #1 issue when you poll Americans

And that's the key to why Democrats are performing better in the GCB/specials:  economic indicators are much better now than they were 2-3 months ago.  July was a good month for stocks.  Gas prices are down.  Inflation peaked.   

No, I'm saying at this point people are reading abortion horror stories in the news, and have gotten used to higher milk prices and have begun to care less with the stock market and job growth going up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"I know my friend was forced to carry the baby of a rapist to full term, but milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners. Voting R LOL!"

And Republicans wonder why they aren't up by like 6-7% as they could be if they weren't as insane.

Do you seriously think there are more Americans with friends carrying rape babies than there are Americans who buy milk?  The economy is still by and far the #1 issue when you poll Americans

And that's the key to why Democrats are performing better in the GCB/specials:  economic indicators are much better now than they were 2-3 months ago.  July was a good month for stocks.  Gas prices are down.  Inflation peaked.   

No, I'm saying at this point people are reading abortion horror stories in the news, and have gotten used to higher milk prices and have begun to care less with the stock market and job growth going up.

Prices on some things have not only stabilized but seem to be coming down a bit, at least where I shop for groceries.  A gallon of milk is $2.79 now; it was 3.29-3.49 earlier this year.  Some produce prices have come down (others haven't).  Beef is still quite high, though.

[DrScholl]

8 ounces of cheese had gone up to as much as $5 where I live, but now it's back down to $1.99 where it was before.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?

• Candidate quality - GOP nominating people who can’t match Youngkin
• Roe / Trump buffoonery - GOP excesses outweigh D overreach (and implicitly some Youngkin voters would now have chosen Terry?)
• Turnout - the Dems now have a stronger grip on more reliable voters
• Turnout with an asterisk - the Ds may win specials, but Reps will still show in Nov

I think 2021 suggests it’s a mix of 1,2, and 4.

The turnout gap between college educated voters and the working class is even higher in midterms. The MAGA cult doesn't turn out without Trump on the ballot, but college educated voters will.

The long term trend of college educated voters swinging to the Democrats helps more in midterms, then in general elections.

[Devils30]

If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?

• Candidate quality - GOP nominating people who can’t match Youngkin
• Roe / Trump buffoonery - GOP excesses outweigh D overreach (and implicitly some Youngkin voters would now have chosen Terry?)
• Turnout - the Dems now have a stronger grip on more reliable voters
• Turnout with an asterisk - the Ds may win specials, but Reps will still show in Nov

I think 2021 suggests it’s a mix of 1,2, and 4.

The turnout gap between college educated voters and the working class is even higher in midterms. The MAGA cult doesn't turn out without Trump on the ballot, but college educated voters will.

The long term trend of college educated voters swinging to the Democrats helps more in midterms, then in general elections.

The House is moving toward Dems but the Senate will not result in many expansion opportunities. I would say the BEST case scenario for Ds is narrow House control such as now and holding NH GA AZ NV, picking up PA WI NC. Even these special elections swinging 6% won't swing OH and we know what FL is.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If the 2021 results are now largely seen as a rejection of D policy on COVID and education, what has changed?

• Candidate quality - GOP nominating people who can’t match Youngkin
• Roe / Trump buffoonery - GOP excesses outweigh D overreach (and implicitly some Youngkin voters would now have chosen Terry?)
• Turnout - the Dems now have a stronger grip on more reliable voters
• Turnout with an asterisk - the Ds may win specials, but Reps will still show in Nov

I think 2021 suggests it’s a mix of 1,2, and 4.

The turnout gap between college educated voters and the working class is even higher in midterms. The MAGA cult doesn't turn out without Trump on the ballot, but college educated voters will.

The long term trend of college educated voters swinging to the Democrats helps more in midterms, then in general elections.

The House is moving toward Dems but the Senate will not result in many expansion opportunities. I would say the BEST case scenario for Ds is narrow House control such as now and holding NH GA AZ NV, picking up PA WI NC. Even these special elections swinging 6% won't swing OH and we know what FL is.

This time last year, you would've been laughed at for even considering a scenario where Dems keep the house & had a chance of picking up Senate seats in PA WI NC

[politicallefty]

"I know my friend was forced to carry the baby of a rapist to full term, but milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners. Voting R LOL!"

And Republicans wonder why they aren't up by like 6-7% as they could be if they weren't as insane.

Do you seriously think there are more Americans with friends carrying rape babies than there are Americans who buy milk?  The economy is still by and far the #1 issue when you poll Americans

And that's the key to why Democrats are performing better in the GCB/specials:  economic indicators are much better now than they were 2-3 months ago.  July was a good month for stocks.  Gas prices are down.  Inflation peaked.   

No, I'm saying at this point people are reading abortion horror stories in the news, and have gotten used to higher milk prices and have begun to care less with the stock market and job growth going up.

Prices on some things have not only stabilized but seem to be coming down a bit, at least where I shop for groceries.  A gallon of milk is $2.79 now; it was 3.29-3.49 earlier this year.  Some produce prices have come down (others haven't).  Beef is still quite high, though.

My experience is similar. Prices have been going up relentlessly since earlier this year, but they seem to have subsided within the past month or so. Some things have still been going up, but I've seen things go down for the first time this year.

[It’s so Joever]

"I know my friend was forced to carry the baby of a rapist to full term, but milk costs 10% more at the local Wegners. Voting R LOL!"

And Republicans wonder why they aren't up by like 6-7% as they could be if they weren't as insane.

Do you seriously think there are more Americans with friends carrying rape babies than there are Americans who buy milk?  The economy is still by and far the #1 issue when you poll Americans

And that's the key to why Democrats are performing better in the GCB/specials:  economic indicators are much better now than they were 2-3 months ago.  July was a good month for stocks.  Gas prices are down.  Inflation peaked.   

Ding ding ding.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Now now let's not get ahead of ourselves.  Still time left on the clock and it's still a midterm election -- only extraordinary circumstances have reversed the backslide against the in-WH party. 

But the GOP hasn't done itself many favors by making a number of pretty baffling decisions in terms of candidates.