Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario is holding municipal elections on October 24. The deadline for nominations has just passed.

Thanks to Doug Ford, the mayoral races in both Toronto and Ottawa will be more important than ever, as they will get special US-style "strong mayor" powers, however only if they back the government's agenda.  

Here's a synopsis of the mayoral races in the top 10 largest cities:

Toronto
Mayor John Tory (former PC leader) is  being challenged by Gil Peñalosa. Peñalosa is an urban planner (this being the second election in a row where Tory's main candidate is an urban planner), whose brother Enrique is the former mayor of Bogotá. Tory should easily win re-election, and will probably win every ward, just like he did in 2018 when he beat Jennifer Keesmaat 63-24.

Ottawa
Mayor Jim Watson (former Liberal cabinet minister) is finally retiring. He has been the city's longest serving mayor. The race to replace him is going to be very heated. The main candidates are progressive city councillor Catherine McKenney, former mayor and Liberal cabinet minister Bob Chiarelli (who will be 81 on election day), and journalist Mark Sutcliffe who is running on a centre-right platform. Chiarelli is a has-been, so the race will really be between McKenney and Sutcliffe. Sutcliffe hasn't run for office before, but is well known in political circles. He has already received some key endorsements from the city's Liberal and Conservative establishment. The only public poll we have so far has McKenney leading Sutcliffe 34-15, however 38% were undecided. This race is giving me shades of 2006, when another progressive LGBT city councillor (Alex Munter) led the polls throughout the year, only to lose on election day from a conservative political neophyte (with Bob Chiarelli himself finishing in third). I fully suspect Sutcliffe to surge the closer we get to election day. If McKenney wins, I think they will be country's first ever non-binary mayor. Sutcliffe would probably be the city's first visible minority mayor, as he's 1/4 Chinese (though he looks White).

The 2018-2022 term on council was marked by its divisiveness, between pro-Watson councillors (dubbed "Team Watson") and a group of mostly progressive city councillors (including McKenney). Almost every divisive vote was split between these two groups. I fully expect Sutcliffe would carry on the Watson agenda if he's elected.

Mississauga
Mayor Bonnie Crombie (former Liberal MP) will easily get re-elected.

Brampton
Mayor Patrick Brown (former PC leader) is running for re-election after he was kicked out of the federal Conservative leadership race. Despite city council not liking him much, no city councillors decided to run against him. His main opponent appears to be Nikki Kaur, who was an anti-Brown whistleblower, whose campaign will be run by noted conservative political consultant Nick Kouvalis.

Hamilton
Mayor Fred Eisenberger is not running for re-election.  But guess who is! Former Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath, fresh off leading the NDP in the 2022 provincial election. Also running are former mayor (and former Liberal MP) Bob Bratina and former chamber of commerce president Keanin Loomis. Loomis has been endorsed by former Ottawa Centre Liberal MP Catherine McKenna, who is originally from Hamilton. The one poll we have so far has Horwath leading with 37%, followed by Loomis at 14% and Bratina at 13%.
 
London
Mayor Ed Holder (former Conservative MP) is not running for re-election. He has endorsed deputy mayor Josh Morgan as his replacement. Also running are former Liberal MPP Khalil Ramal and pastor Sandie Thomas. You may recall London being the first city to use ranked ballots in 2018 after provincial legislation allowed for it. Unfortunately, Doug Ford repealed this legislation, and London will return to using FPTP.

Markham
Longtime mayor Frank Scarpitti is being challenged by Deputy mayor Don Hamilton

Vaughan
Mayor Maurizio Bevilacqua (former Liberal MP) is retiring. And hey, we have another former provincial leader running for a mayoralty. Steven Del Duca, who just led the provincial Liberals to another disastrous result is running for mayor of his hometown. Opposing him is city councillor Sandra Yeing Racco, who has the most York Region sounding name ever (actually, that title might go to Markham councillor Amanda Yeung Collucci).

Kitchener
Mayor Berry Vrbanovic is running for re-election. He's not facing any stiff competition.
 
Windsor
Mayor Drew Dilkens is being opposed by progressive city councillor Chris Holt.

 

[Hatman 🍁]

I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.

[Hatman 🍁]

Horizon Ottawa, a progressive grassroots organization has endorsed 11 candidates for council.

*Tessa Franklin, Orleans East-Cumberland. Will likely lose to the incumbent Watson-ite Matthew Luloff
*Lori Stinson, Olreans West-Innes (will likely lose to the incumbent Watson-ite Laura Dudas)
*Kevin Hua, Stittsville (former NDP candidate). Will likely lose to the incumbent Watson-ite Glen Gower
*Laine Johnson, College. This is an open seat, as noted sex-pest Rick Chiarelli is not running for-election. She has a good shot at picking the seat up.
*Sean Devine, Knoxdale-Merivale (another former NDP candidate). This is another open seat, one that was held by Watson-ite Keith Egli, so a crucial seat for progressives to target. I'm not sure what his chances are, but Egli's brother Myles is running, so he might be the front runner due to his last name. 
*Laura Shantz, Rideau-Vanier. Another open seat. This was held be a former-Watsonite-turned progressive Mathieu Fleury. I'm guessing Shantz has a good shot, but her name  isn't French, which could hurt her in this traditionally Francophone ward.
*Ariel Troster, Somerset. Endorsed it out-going councillor Catherine McKenney who is running for mayor. Slam dunk win.
*Jeff Leiper, Kitchissippi. He's the sitting councillor and his very popular. Easy win.
*Shawn Menard, Capital Ward. Also the incumbent. He was first elected in 2018 by the skin of his teeth, but his main opponent is unhinged lawyer/professor who should probably stop Tweeting.
*Yvette Ashiri, Orleans South-Navan. Rematch of a by-election held in 2020 against eventual winner Catherine Kitts. Kitts is a Watson-ite, and I expect her to easily win again.

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, no one is pushing the idea that Sutcliffe is a visible minority, I just wanted to point out he was a quarter Chinese, and that would make him the city's first mayor with a VM background.

I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.

Yeah, I wouldn't extrapolate too much municipal doom and gloom from Del Duca's provincial run--in part because, sitting or not, his opponents aren't necessarily more appetizing.  It could well be that the mayoralty's more his speed, much as it was for John Tory...

Also speaking of Del Duca, he's done a total 180 from the provincial campaign. He went from opposing the 413 as Liberal leader to making "anti-gridlock" his #1 campaign priority as mayor. I guess he realized opposing the building of the 413 was not actually that popular after all?

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Sutcliffe, he released a list of his campaign co-chairs today. It's a real who's who of the Ottawa political establishment:

Claudette Cain (former Gloucester mayor)
Jean Cloutier (Alta Vista councillor)
Brian Coburn (former PC cabinet minister)
Jim Durrell (former mayor)
Eli El-Chantiry (West Carleton-March councillor)
Jacqueline Holzman (former mayor)
Marie-France Lalonde (Liberal MP)
Marjory LeBreton (former Conservative senate leader)
Madeleine Meilleur (former Liberal cabinet minister)
Jenna Sudds (Liberal MP)

All Liberals and Conservatives. Proof that at the heart of politics, the Liberals are not really a left of centre party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sheila Copps has endorsed Horwath.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Mainstreet poll for Ottawa

McKenney: 34 (n/c)
Sutcliffe: 20 (+5)
Chiarelli: 11 (+5)
Undecided: 24 (-14)

As expected, undecideds are breaking for Sutcliffe (but bizarrely, Chiarelli too). McKenney has hit a ceiling. Shades of 2006 and all that.

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, no one is pushing the idea that Sutcliffe is a visible minority, I just wanted to point out he was a quarter Chinese, and that would make him the city's first mayor with a VM background.

I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.

Yeah, I wouldn't extrapolate too much municipal doom and gloom from Del Duca's provincial run--in part because, sitting or not, his opponents aren't necessarily more appetizing.  It could well be that the mayoralty's more his speed, much as it was for John Tory...

Also speaking of Del Duca, he's done a total 180 from the provincial campaign. He went from opposing the 413 as Liberal leader to making "anti-gridlock" his #1 campaign priority as mayor. I guess he realized opposing the building of the 413 was not actually that popular after all?

Ok, so he is really just an opportunistic politician who will do or say whatever he thinks people want to hear. 

In other words, a Liberal

[Hatman 🍁]

There is no one I hope loses more than Rebecca Bromwich. Her whole campaign has been insane, and she's running against one of the best city councillors in the city.

https://twitter.com/David_Moscrop/status/1574210081452851200

[Hatman 🍁]

Bromwich I assume was the sacrificial lamb the Watson club found to run against Shawn Menard. Menard was one of the best councillors during the convoy occupation, speaking out and organizing protests, etc. Bromwich (who doesn't even live in his ward) announced she was running because she was unhappy with how council dealt with the occupation, and got called out on it as she is running against Menard. Since then her social media campaign has been a comedy of errors and insanity (like suggesting people were attacking her just because she's a woman, using AOC quotes and whatnot), peaking with yesterday's tweet. To give some context, the owner of Stella Luna not only donated to the convoy, but went on FOX NEWS defending her decision. And so when Bromwich tweeted that she went to Stella Luna, basically promoting the business, people were rightfully outraged. And the way she backtracked on it... some more insanity. She has since deleted her tweets and has apologized, but man...

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Mainstreet poll:

McKenney: 34 (n/c)
Sutcliffe: 32 (+12)
Chiarelli: 7 (-4)
Undecided: 20 (-4)

As expected, undecideds are breaking entirely for Sutcliffe, plus Chiarelli's losing support to him as well. Sutcliffe has this in the bag

Nanos did a recent poll too:
McKenney: 29
Sutcliffe: 24
Chiarelli: 9
Undecided: 35

[Hatman 🍁]

We finally have a Toronto mayoral poll!

Forum Research, Oct 8

Tory: 56 (-7 from 2018)
Penalosa: 20 (-4 from Keesmaat's % in 2018)
Others: 24

[Hatman 🍁]

Valerie Plante is pretty left wing, isn't she? I'd imagine McKenney would govern very similarly to her.

[Hatman 🍁]

Plante's party is considered social democratic, and does well in Le Plateau, which is also the area where QS and the NDP do the best. She lives in Boulerice's riding, I would be surprised if she doesn't vote for him.

Here are the parties/ideologies for the mayors of Canada's largest cities:

John Tory (Toronto) - Cons.
Valérie Plante (Montreal) - Project Montreal (left of centre)
Jyoti Gondek (Calgary) - centrist, maybe ever so left of centre
Jim Watson (Ottawa) - Liberal
Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton) - Liberal
Bonnie Crombie (Mississauga) - Liberal
Brian Bowman (Winnipeg) - Cons.
Kennedy Stewart (Vancouver) - NDP
Patrick Brown (Brampton) - Cons.
Fred Eisenberger (Hamilton) - Cons.
Bruno Marchand (Quebec City) - Québec forte et fière (centrist)
Doug McCaullum (Surrey) - Cons.
Stéphane Boyer (Laval) - Mouvement lavallois (social democratic)
Mike Savage (Halifax) - Liberal
Ed Holder (London) - Cons.
Frank Scarpitti (Markham) - Liberal
Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan) - Liberal
France Bélisle (Gatineau) - Vaguely centrist from what I remember
Charlie Clark (Saskatoon) - centre-left
Catherine Fournier (Longueuil) - Coalition Longueuil/BQ/PQ
Berry Vrbanovic (Kitchener) - Liberal
Mike Hurley (Burnaby) - centre-left
Drew Dilkens (Windsor) - Cons. I think
Sandra Masters (Regina) - vaguely centrist?
Malcolm Brodie (Richmond) - Formerly Richmond Non-Partisan Association, a centre-right party

[Hatman 🍁]

I find it incredibly amusing that while David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data is managing Sutcliffe's campaign, Bruce Anderson, Abacus' chairman is backing McKenney:

https://twitter.com/bruceanderson/status/1581712075625152513

[Hatman 🍁]

Mark Carney of all people has endorsed McKenney...

https://twitter.com/MarkJCarney/status/1581721003972927488

[Hatman 🍁]

The "former" Liberal establishment is coming out in favour of McKenney (Catherine McKenna also endorsed them). They're not worried about their jobs.

[Hatman 🍁]

The only objective way to measure cities when we're talking about municipal elections is by the size of their electorate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ford isn't particularly popular in Ottawa, so it makes sense that the candidates wouldn't support his strong mayor powers idea.

[Hatman 🍁]

I find it incredibly amusing that while David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data is managing Sutcliffe's campaign, Bruce Anderson, Abacus' chairman is backing McKenney:

I find it amusing that a campaign would be "managed" by a media pollster who as far as I can tell has ZERO experience with the nuts and bolts of running a local election campaign.

Yeah, and the results have been.... as expected. If Sutcliffe wins, it won't be because of having a good campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

Funnily enough, the school trustee race in my zone has become about masks and what not. The top two candidates have nearly identical platforms except for masks. They're both very progressive, both endorsed by Horizon Ottawa, etc. However, one is an over zealous doctor who has a huge Twitter following who insists on wearing a mask all the time, and got really upset at her opponent for not wearing a mask at a recent debate. Her opponent is more sane on the issue, saying we should follow Ottawa Public Health advice, but wrote an opinion piece in the Citizen saying we should go back to normal at schools and re-start school extra curriculars, etc.  She has attracted a rather usavoury following though, based solely on her opponent. The campaign is getting rather nasty.

I was originally going to vote for the doctor candidate, as she has been endorsed by McKenney and has some connections to the NDP, but now I am changing my vote (a very rare occurrence for me, to change my vote this late in the campaign). The fact that she didn't even send her kids to public school was the straw that broke the camels back. Plus, the provincial NDP candidate here endorsed her opponent, so I'm feeling good about my switch.

[Hatman 🍁]

Funnily enough, the school trustee race in my zone has become about masks and what not. The top two candidates have nearly identical platforms except for on masks. They're both very progressive, both endorsed by Horizon Ottawa, etc. However, one is an over zealous doctor who a huge Twitter following who insists on wearing a mask all the time, and got really upset at her opponent for not wearing a mask at a recent debate. Her opponent is more sane on the issue, saying we should follow Ottawa Public Health advice, but wrote an opinion piece in the Citizen saying we should go back to normal at schools and re-start school extra curriculars, etc.  She has attracted a rather usavoury following though, based solely on her opponent. The campaign is getting rather nasty.

I was originally going to vote for the doctor candidate, as she has been endorsed by McKenney and has some connections to the NDP, but now I am changing my vote (a very rare occurrence for me, to change my vote this late in the campaign). The fact that she didn't even send her kids to public school was the straw that broke the camels back. Plus, the provincial NDP candidate here endorsed her opponent, so I'm feeling good about my switch.

If you are referring to that Dr. Nili Kaplan-Myrrh - I don't blame you. If i had to choose between her and some rightwing Bible thumper I'd vote for her but if there is a sane progressive alternative I'll support that person. I had a lot of time for the Dr. in the early days of the pandemic but now she has just become histrionic and seems like a single issue candidate who wants the whole world to wear N95 masks in perpetuity. I saw her in a panel discussion on TVO and she was totally out of control screaming and name calling other panellists. I do NOT want that woman to have any future in the NDP or in progressive politics in Ottawa - the faster her political career is extinguished the better.

Yes, that's her.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Toronto, the Viamonde (French Public board in Southern Ontario) trustee race in Ward 3 (Viamonde's Ward 3 - no the city's, represents much of the downtown area) has been cancelled as neither candidate spoke French, and don't meet the requirements outlined in the Education act.

lol

[Hatman 🍁]

So the final poll in Ottawa by Mainstreet seems to show that whatever momentum Sutcliffe had in recent weeks has stalled and McKenney leads him 42-38 among decided voters.

Of course its very close and could go either way. Looking at the crosstabs I'd say that Sutcliffe's advantage is that he does better among elderly voters who are usually more likely to vote. But on the other hand, McKenney has big leads among those with university educations and those with higher incomes and those are also segments who are more likely to vote so it may be a bit of a wash.

https://www.ipolitics.ca/queens-park/catherine-mckenney-has-very-narrow-lead-in-ottawa-mayoral-race-poll

  

We helped them out with the poll. They some how have fringe candidate Param Singh in third at 11%, when he wasn't even included in our script. lol

Scarborough Councillor Cynthia Lai has died.  Not sure what happens on Monday in this case.

The election goes ahead and her votes are discarded and the only other serious candidate is a leftwing activist named Jamaal Myers and he will likely win replacing LI who was a rightwing conservative

Fairly undemocratic decision by the city clerk. The proper thing to do is cancel the election and hold a by-election OR indicate that a Lai win prompts a council vacancy.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, while most in the pundit community are totally surprised by the Ottawa results, I am not. I've been beating the "just like 2006" drum since Sutcliffe entered the race. I was hoping this city would've at least moved a few notches to the left since then, though. Apparently not; the margins were similar.

On city council, there were a few big wins. Good to see Laine Johnson win in College (a huge improvement over slime ball Rick Chiarelli) and NDPer Sean Devine won in Knoxdale-Merivale. Also pretty happy that another NDPer (but, a more moderate one) Marty Carr won in my ward, defeating John Fraser's EA. Alta Vista has never had a progressive councillor until now. One huge disappointment was Rideau-Vanier where the establishment candidate Stephanie Plante won over the progressive candidate, Laura Shantz. I'm assuming some of this was a desire to elect a Francophone candidate in this traditionally Fanco ward.

Also, I have NO idea how she did it, but Nili Kaplan-Myrth won my school zone. I thought after recent events she would've lost in a landslide. I suppose the McKenney endorsement helped her in the Capital Ward part of the zone. I feel really bad for her opponent.