Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)
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Author Topic: Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)  (Read 4247 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« on: August 24, 2022, 11:59:01 AM »
« edited: August 26, 2022, 10:02:11 AM by Hatman 🍁 »

Ontario is holding municipal elections on October 24. The deadline for nominations has just passed.

Thanks to Doug Ford, the mayoral races in both Toronto and Ottawa will be more important than ever, as they will get special US-style "strong mayor" powers, however only if they back the government's agenda.  

Here's a synopsis of the mayoral races in the top 10 largest cities:

Toronto
Mayor John Tory (former PC leader) is  being challenged by Gil Peñalosa. Peñalosa is an urban planner (this being the second election in a row where Tory's main candidate is an urban planner), whose brother Enrique is the former mayor of Bogotá. Tory should easily win re-election, and will probably win every ward, just like he did in 2018 when he beat Jennifer Keesmaat 63-24.

Ottawa
Mayor Jim Watson (former Liberal cabinet minister) is finally retiring. He has been the city's longest serving mayor. The race to replace him is going to be very heated. The main candidates are progressive city councillor Catherine McKenney, former mayor and Liberal cabinet minister Bob Chiarelli (who will be 81 on election day), and journalist Mark Sutcliffe who is running on a centre-right platform. Chiarelli is a has-been, so the race will really be between McKenney and Sutcliffe. Sutcliffe hasn't run for office before, but is well known in political circles. He has already received some key endorsements from the city's Liberal and Conservative establishment. The only public poll we have so far has McKenney leading Sutcliffe 34-15, however 38% were undecided. This race is giving me shades of 2006, when another progressive LGBT city councillor (Alex Munter) led the polls throughout the year, only to lose on election day from a conservative political neophyte (with Bob Chiarelli himself finishing in third). I fully suspect Sutcliffe to surge the closer we get to election day. If McKenney wins, I think they will be country's first ever non-binary mayor. Sutcliffe would probably be the city's first visible minority mayor, as he's 1/4 Chinese (though he looks White).

The 2018-2022 term on council was marked by its divisiveness, between pro-Watson councillors (dubbed "Team Watson") and a group of mostly progressive city councillors (including McKenney). Almost every divisive vote was split between these two groups. I fully expect Sutcliffe would carry on the Watson agenda if he's elected.

Mississauga
Mayor Bonnie Crombie (former Liberal MP) will easily get re-elected.

Brampton
Mayor Patrick Brown (former PC leader) is running for re-election after he was kicked out of the federal Conservative leadership race. Despite city council not liking him much, no city councillors decided to run against him. His main opponent appears to be Nikki Kaur, who was an anti-Brown whistleblower, whose campaign will be run by noted conservative political consultant Nick Kouvalis.

Hamilton
Mayor Fred Eisenberger is not running for re-election.  But guess who is! Former Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath, fresh off leading the NDP in the 2022 provincial election. Also running are former mayor (and former Liberal MP) Bob Bratina and former chamber of commerce president Keanin Loomis. Loomis has been endorsed by former Ottawa Centre Liberal MP Catherine McKenna, who is originally from Hamilton. The one poll we have so far has Horwath leading with 37%, followed by Loomis at 14% and Bratina at 13%.
 
London
Mayor Ed Holder (former Conservative MP) is not running for re-election. He has endorsed deputy mayor Josh Morgan as his replacement. Also running are former Liberal MPP Khalil Ramal and pastor Sandie Thomas. You may recall London being the first city to use ranked ballots in 2018 after provincial legislation allowed for it. Unfortunately, Doug Ford repealed this legislation, and London will return to using FPTP.

Markham
Longtime mayor Frank Scarpitti is being challenged by Deputy mayor Don Hamilton

Vaughan
Mayor Maurizio Bevilacqua (former Liberal MP) is retiring. And hey, we have another former provincial leader running for a mayoralty. Steven Del Duca, who just led the provincial Liberals to another disastrous result is running for mayor of his hometown. Opposing him is city councillor Sandra Yeing Racco, who has the most York Region sounding name ever (actually, that title might go to Markham councillor Amanda Yeung Collucci).

Kitchener
Mayor Berry Vrbanovic is running for re-election. He's not facing any stiff competition.
 
Windsor
Mayor Drew Dilkens is being opposed by progressive city councillor Chris Holt.

 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2022, 06:48:37 PM »

John Tory should win easily as unlike previous mayors he is a steady hand and little controversies.  Howarth is very popular in Hamilton so I expect her to win easily.  She probably loses rural parts but landslide in urban parts and ahead in suburban parts too.  Del Duca I think loses again in Vaughan.  Whatever one thinks of his policies, he is a horrible retail politician and that matters a lot these days.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2022, 08:44:56 AM »

I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2022, 09:33:12 AM »

Horizon Ottawa, a progressive grassroots organization has endorsed 11 candidates for council.

*Tessa Franklin, Orleans East-Cumberland. Will likely lose to the incumbent Watson-ite Matthew Luloff
*Lori Stinson, Olreans West-Innes (will likely lose to the incumbent Watson-ite Laura Dudas)
*Kevin Hua, Stittsville (former NDP candidate). Will likely lose to the incumbent Watson-ite Glen Gower
*Laine Johnson, College. This is an open seat, as noted sex-pest Rick Chiarelli is not running for-election. She has a good shot at picking the seat up.
*Sean Devine, Knoxdale-Merivale (another former NDP candidate). This is another open seat, one that was held by Watson-ite Keith Egli, so a crucial seat for progressives to target. I'm not sure what his chances are, but Egli's brother Myles is running, so he might be the front runner due to his last name. 
*Laura Shantz, Rideau-Vanier. Another open seat. This was held be a former-Watsonite-turned progressive Mathieu Fleury. I'm guessing Shantz has a good shot, but her name  isn't French, which could hurt her in this traditionally Francophone ward.
*Ariel Troster, Somerset. Endorsed it out-going councillor Catherine McKenney who is running for mayor. Slam dunk win.
*Jeff Leiper, Kitchissippi. He's the sitting councillor and his very popular. Easy win.
*Shawn Menard, Capital Ward. Also the incumbent. He was first elected in 2018 by the skin of his teeth, but his main opponent is unhinged lawyer/professor who should probably stop Tweeting.
*Yvette Ashiri, Orleans South-Navan. Rematch of a by-election held in 2020 against eventual winner Catherine Kitts. Kitts is a Watson-ite, and I expect her to easily win again.
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adma
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« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2022, 05:19:19 PM »

I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.

Yeah, I wouldn't extrapolate too much municipal doom and gloom from Del Duca's provincial run--in part because, sitting or not, his opponents aren't necessarily more appetizing.  It could well be that the mayoralty's more his speed, much as it was for John Tory...
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2022, 06:40:58 PM »

Sutcliffe would probably be the city's first visible minority mayor, as he's 1/4 Chinese (though he looks White).
As a non-Canadian I’ve always found the term ‘visible minority’ to be a bit odd, but a quick Google suggests that’s taking it to new lengths.
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DL
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« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2022, 11:05:12 PM »

Sutcliffe would probably be the city's first visible minority mayor, as he's 1/4 Chinese (though he looks White).
As a non-Canadian I’ve always found the term ‘visible minority’ to be a bit odd, but a quick Google suggests that’s taking it to new lengths.

It’s particularly odd to use the term “visible minority” to describe someone who is a totally Invisible minority group member since he looks 100% white. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say he would be Ottawa’s first partially racialiized mayor? Though I’ll bet there have been other mayors in the past who had some non-white blood that was never officially acknowledged
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2022, 10:00:36 AM »

To be fair, no one is pushing the idea that Sutcliffe is a visible minority, I just wanted to point out he was a quarter Chinese, and that would make him the city's first mayor with a VM background.

I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.

Yeah, I wouldn't extrapolate too much municipal doom and gloom from Del Duca's provincial run--in part because, sitting or not, his opponents aren't necessarily more appetizing.  It could well be that the mayoralty's more his speed, much as it was for John Tory...


Also speaking of Del Duca, he's done a total 180 from the provincial campaign. He went from opposing the 413 as Liberal leader to making "anti-gridlock" his #1 campaign priority as mayor. I guess he realized opposing the building of the 413 was not actually that popular after all?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2022, 12:22:20 PM »

Speaking of Sutcliffe, he released a list of his campaign co-chairs today. It's a real who's who of the Ottawa political establishment:

Claudette Cain (former Gloucester mayor)
Jean Cloutier (Alta Vista councillor)
Brian Coburn (former PC cabinet minister)
Jim Durrell (former mayor)
Eli El-Chantiry (West Carleton-March councillor)
Jacqueline Holzman (former mayor)
Marie-France Lalonde (Liberal MP)
Marjory LeBreton (former Conservative senate leader)
Madeleine Meilleur (former Liberal cabinet minister)
Jenna Sudds (Liberal MP)

All Liberals and Conservatives. Proof that at the heart of politics, the Liberals are not really a left of centre party.
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DL
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2022, 03:14:01 PM »

Speaking of Sutcliffe, he released a list of his campaign co-chairs today. It's a real who's who of the Ottawa political establishment:

Claudette Cain (former Gloucester mayor)
Jean Cloutier (Alta Vista councillor)
Brian Coburn (former PC cabinet minister)
Jim Durrell (former mayor)
Eli El-Chantiry (West Carleton-March councillor)
Jacqueline Holzman (former mayor)
Marie-France Lalonde (Liberal MP)
Marjory LeBreton (former Conservative senate leader)
Madeleine Meilleur (former Liberal cabinet minister)
Jenna Sudds (Liberal MP)

All Liberals and Conservatives. Proof that at the heart of politics, the Liberals are not really a left of centre party.

In other words "Vote Sutcliffe for CONTINUITY with the Jim Watson" and "...from the people who gave you Jim Watson, meet Scott Sutcliffe"
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2022, 10:21:16 AM »

Sheila Copps has endorsed Horwath.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2022, 09:09:01 AM »

New Mainstreet poll for Ottawa

McKenney: 34 (n/c)
Sutcliffe: 20 (+5)
Chiarelli: 11 (+5)
Undecided: 24 (-14)

As expected, undecideds are breaking for Sutcliffe (but bizarrely, Chiarelli too). McKenney has hit a ceiling. Shades of 2006 and all that.
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toaster
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2022, 08:14:54 AM »

To be fair, no one is pushing the idea that Sutcliffe is a visible minority, I just wanted to point out he was a quarter Chinese, and that would make him the city's first mayor with a VM background.

I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.

Yeah, I wouldn't extrapolate too much municipal doom and gloom from Del Duca's provincial run--in part because, sitting or not, his opponents aren't necessarily more appetizing.  It could well be that the mayoralty's more his speed, much as it was for John Tory...


Also speaking of Del Duca, he's done a total 180 from the provincial campaign. He went from opposing the 413 as Liberal leader to making "anti-gridlock" his #1 campaign priority as mayor. I guess he realized opposing the building of the 413 was not actually that popular after all?
Ok, so he is really just an opportunistic politician who will do or say whatever he thinks people want to hear.  Be a leader, have conviction in your ideas.  I really hope he loses.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2022, 08:16:06 AM »

To be fair, no one is pushing the idea that Sutcliffe is a visible minority, I just wanted to point out he was a quarter Chinese, and that would make him the city's first mayor with a VM background.

I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.

Yeah, I wouldn't extrapolate too much municipal doom and gloom from Del Duca's provincial run--in part because, sitting or not, his opponents aren't necessarily more appetizing.  It could well be that the mayoralty's more his speed, much as it was for John Tory...


Also speaking of Del Duca, he's done a total 180 from the provincial campaign. He went from opposing the 413 as Liberal leader to making "anti-gridlock" his #1 campaign priority as mayor. I guess he realized opposing the building of the 413 was not actually that popular after all?
Ok, so he is really just an opportunistic politician who will do or say whatever he thinks people want to hear. 

In other words, a Liberal Cheesy
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2022, 08:42:31 AM »

There is no one I hope loses more than Rebecca Bromwich. Her whole campaign has been insane, and she's running against one of the best city councillors in the city.

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toaster
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« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2022, 04:40:24 PM »

I have no idea who this is, but what has gone wrong? 


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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2022, 09:02:06 AM »

Bromwich I assume was the sacrificial lamb the Watson club found to run against Shawn Menard. Menard was one of the best councillors during the convoy occupation, speaking out and organizing protests, etc. Bromwich (who doesn't even live in his ward) announced she was running because she was unhappy with how council dealt with the occupation, and got called out on it as she is running against Menard. Since then her social media campaign has been a comedy of errors and insanity (like suggesting people were attacking her just because she's a woman, using AOC quotes and whatnot), peaking with yesterday's tweet. To give some context, the owner of Stella Luna not only donated to the convoy, but went on FOX NEWS defending her decision. And so when Bromwich tweeted that she went to Stella Luna, basically promoting the business, people were rightfully outraged. And the way she backtracked on it... some more insanity. She has since deleted her tweets and has apologized, but man...
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2022, 09:19:54 AM »

Another Mainstreet poll:

McKenney: 34 (n/c)
Sutcliffe: 32 (+12)
Chiarelli: 7 (-4)
Undecided: 20 (-4)

As expected, undecideds are breaking entirely for Sutcliffe, plus Chiarelli's losing support to him as well. Sutcliffe has this in the bag Sad

Nanos did a recent poll too:
McKenney: 29
Sutcliffe: 24
Chiarelli: 9
Undecided: 35
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2022, 08:30:29 AM »

We finally have a Toronto mayoral poll!

Forum Research, Oct 8

Tory: 56 (-7 from 2018)
Penalosa: 20 (-4 from Keesmaat's % in 2018)
Others: 24
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2022, 01:04:14 PM »

I never thought the municipal politics of a city as infamously sleepy as Ottawa would be particularly interesting, but here we are. Keeping in mind that the mayoralty of Ottawa will become a vastly more powerful role under the Ford government's strong mayor legislation, a close race between McKenney and Sutcliffe could have some pretty big impacts.

If elected, McKenney would be the most left-wing mayor of a major Canadian city, or at least on par with Kennedy Stewart in Vancouver (who himself could be out of a job by tomorrow evening, the centre-right Ken Sim is ahead of him in the polls, and Stewart's popularity has suffered greatly in light of Vancouver's worsening addiction/homelessness/crime crisis). Sutcliffe's platform meanwhile reads right-leaning, although a John Tory-style "Liberal-Conservative fusion" kind of right-leaning, not an explicitly conservative one. Safe to say that Ford would prefer that Sutcliffe inherits his strong mayor powers, because it's hard to see him working well with McKenney.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2022, 10:49:55 PM »

Valerie Plante is pretty left wing, isn't she? I'd imagine McKenney would govern very similarly to her.
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toaster
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2022, 10:37:09 AM »

Not sure what our definition of "major city" is, but Andrea in Hamilton might also be a contender for that title if she wins.  In her last term as opposition leader in Ontario's Legislature she made a sharp left turn from labour/union fighter to left-wing progressive. Although not sure she would govern that way as Mayor.
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DL
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2022, 12:48:40 PM »

Isn't the mayor of Saskatoon Charlie Clark also very progressive and backed by the NDP and labour etc...?
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Estrella
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2022, 12:58:02 PM »

Not sure what our definition of "major city" is, but Andrea in Hamilton might also be a contender for that title if she wins.  In her last term as opposition leader in Ontario's Legislature she made a sharp left turn from labour/union fighter to left-wing progressive. Although not sure she would govern that way as Mayor.

How did that work? I've read about how NDP circa 2011/2014 did very well in smaller postindustrial cities and poorly in Toronto because of Horwath's campaign style, but it doesn't seem like there's that much difference in today's Canada between union-oriented and progressive-oriented social democracy. Were there any actual policies she changed her mind on?
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2022, 02:17:04 PM »

Valerie Plante is pretty left wing, isn't she? I'd imagine McKenney would govern very similarly to her.


Plante always struck me as more of a left-liberal, while McKenney strikes me as someone who votes NDP. But that's increasingly a distinction without a difference as far as municipal issues go, and to be fair I'm not familiar enough with Plante or McKenney to definitively say that one is to the left of the other. At the very least though, McKenney would be on par with Plante, and relatively more left-wing considering that Ottawa is generally a less left-wing city than Montreal
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