Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)

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I forgot to mention that Mainstreet did a poll in Vaughan showing Del Duca winning over Yeung Racco 22-7. 63% undecided lol. Of course, all summer polling is useless, and is only about name recognition.

Yeah, I wouldn't extrapolate too much municipal doom and gloom from Del Duca's provincial run--in part because, sitting or not, his opponents aren't necessarily more appetizing.  It could well be that the mayoralty's more his speed, much as it was for John Tory...

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This is an odd and not measurable criteria?  "This person would be the most left-leaning out of a random unmeasurable criteria list I've created".  Odd.  It's a weird thing, I lived in Ottawa for about 6-7 years, and people in Ottawa were so obsessed with being over 1 million population, yet in the same breath would be upset with the province for having amalgamated Orleans, Kanata, (etc) into their City - the only reason the city was able to get over that 1 million.  Anyway, Mississauga would come ahead of Vancouver (and the former City of Ottawa without the suburbs) in population as a major city, with Brampton and Hamiton not far behind.

And Hamilton's in the same mega-amalgamated boat as Ottawa, while Mississauga and Brampton are, like Laval or Burnaby/Richmond/Surrey, more suburbs in city guise--Arlingtons rather than Fort Worths, so to speak...

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No, I'd say "Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa" makes sense. Looking at municipal population alone isn't very helpful. Sure, Mississauga has a larger population than Vancouver, but big cities are defined by more than just their population, you have to consider their economic and cultural power too. Vancouver is the primary economic engine and cultural powerhouse of the lower mainland in particular and BC more broadly, and has a metropolitan area centred around it. Whereas Mississauga is firmly in the Toronto circle of influence - same goes for Brampton, and to a lesser extent, Hamilton. Vancouver is certainly more of a "big city" in terms of its characteristics and overall influence than Mississauga or even Winnipeg, I would argue even Ottawa.

Yeah, one must realize that "city" is more than the abstract matter of politically distinct megaburbs (a notion that began to coalesce in the 60s/70s w/the likes of Mississauga or Laval) or the amalgamated megamunicipalities of the past 3 decades.  Because only a moron or somebody who wasn't born yet in 1990ish and doesn't know any better would take the present city-county geographic definition of "Ottawa" seriously--which is why the whole population size + municipal definition barometer's been irretrievably degraded in recent times.

Heck, one might claim that even without *its* nitwit mega-amalgamation, on economic-and-cultural-power grounds *Halifax* is more of a "big city" than Surrey or Mississauga.

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The only objective way to measure cities when we're talking about municipal elections is by the size of their electorate.

True, which is why a lot of this discussion is less about electorate size than about the abstract notion of "clout".

(And in that light, it might be argued that Hazel McCallion's long Mississauga reign was more an illumination of Mississauga as an overgrown small town)

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What I find interesting about the Toronto election is that 4 years after all the hand-wringing over Faith Goldy's run (and with *two other* far-right standard-bearers on the ballot), there doesn't seem to be anyone at that end of the spectrum running for Toronto's mayoralty--I mean, the most the freedom-protest crowd might have to chew on is Sarah Climenhaga being anti-lockdown.  (And assorted "New Blue" types running for Council or whatever, w/o the slightest chance in blazes mainly because they're New Blue types in the first place)

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What I find interesting about the Toronto election is that 4 years after all the hand-wringing over Faith Goldy's run (and with *two other* far-right standard-bearers on the ballot), there doesn't seem to be anyone at that end of the spectrum running for Toronto's mayoralty--I mean, the most the freedom-protest crowd might have to chew on is Sarah Climenhaga being anti-lockdown.  (And assorted "New Blue" types running for Council or whatever, w/o the slightest chance in blazes mainly because they're New Blue types in the first place)

And even then, Sarah Climenhaga is not remotely Faith Goldy. Everything in her platform except her opposition to mandates is fairly standard left-wing takes on municipal issues, although less "wonky left" and more "granola left". Although with that context, it's not that strange. Even though opposition to vaccine mandates and lockdowns has come to be something generally embraced by the right and generally shunned by the left, it's not an inherently right-wing position, there's a kind of left-libertarian, Harper-era Green Party appeal there.

That's why I said "at most"--like, if anti-mandate were the *sole* check-mark necessary, particularly for lack of a more satisfying alternative for that crowd.  The far-right freedom-march choice solely by proxy...

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Scarborough Councillor Cynthia Lai has died.  Not sure what happens on Monday in this case.

The election goes ahead and her votes are discarded and the only other serious candidate is a leftwing activist named Jamaal Myers and he will likely win replacing LI who was a rightwing conservative

Fairly undemocratic decision by the city clerk. The proper thing to do is cancel the election and hold a by-election OR indicate that a Lai win prompts a council vacancy.

As much as I disagreed with her politics (she was more right of centre), I don't think this is an appropriate decision by the clerk. If the Lai name wins, a by-election should be held.  You are forcing the 2nd place candidate (in what was essentially a 2 person race - so the precise person the community was not going to choose) onto the community - this is not how you engage or appropriately represent community. I wonder if (god forbid) Tory died, would they do the same thing - let the person with less than 30% support of the people be the mayor? This is a dangerous decision, the way to power in Toronto in the future could be to just literally have your leading challenger eliminated (read killed).  Insane.

It's a reason the pre-megacity of Toronto changed its electoral rules in the 1970s; otherwise, the risk in the event of vacancy would have been of the mayoralty going to David Crombie's distant runner-up, which in 1974 was white supremacist Don Andrews.

Speaking, once more, of the absence of far-right figures on the ballot; I wonder if it's also in part because their chosen technique this cycle is that of trolling and harrassment rather than of running--undermining democracy from without rather than from within, perhaps because they know there's no viable avenue "within"...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/campaign-hatred-municipal-election-2022-1.6626205

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Toronto, 1223/1535 reporting:

Tory 60.76%
Peñalosa 18.09%
Chloe-Marie Brown 7.26% (rando who appears left-leaning)

She impressed in debates, so she's a bit of a sleeper.

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It was predictable given the people who live in the suburbs and the boonies, but f- this useless city. Just garbage.

The election in Toronto was a complete snooze-fest, yet I'm still disappointed that the few people that voted, voted to continue the status quo. Meanwhile, garbage bins are stinking, the subway is always facing delays, parks are always closed for repairs, and drug addicts are still sleeping in doorways.

Actually, it's not quite the snooze-fest one'd expect; it looks like Toronto Council shifted left--Grimes defeated, Nunziata endangered, the anticipated slam-dunk of Bravo replacing Bailao, the asterisked matter of Jamaal Myers...

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It was predictable given the people who live in the suburbs and the boonies, but f- this useless city. Just garbage.

The election in Toronto was a complete snooze-fest, yet I'm still disappointed that the few people that voted, voted to continue the status quo. Meanwhile, garbage bins are stinking, the subway is always facing delays, parks are always closed for repairs, and drug addicts are still sleeping in doorways.

I mean, with hindsight, it was obvious: McKenney had their stable base but obvious ceiling, and the undecideds would break for status-quo Sutcliffe in the suburbs and the boonies. Quintessential Ontario municipal election, post-Harris amalgamation: the suburbanites and assorted hicks in the woods love their predictable, plodding managerial pro-developer establishment 'moderates' who keep their taxes low, ensure a modicum of third-rate public transportation to function and have nice parks and fountains for the kids, while letting developers destroy the urban landscape downtown and expand the city further out.

There will never be actual progressive change at the local level in Ontario.

Could be a ditto situation in Hamilton, where it's neck-and-neck for Horwath vs Loomis.

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And now, media outlets are declaring Horwath the winner--but by a squeaker.  (Another thing Ottawa & Hamilton have in common: humiliating 3rd-place oblivion for octogenarian ex-mayors/parliamentarians.  Just because Biden "validates" advanced-age runs doesn't mean everyone should try it.)

And for a twofer, *Del Duca* has won the Vaughan mayoralty by a squeaker as well.

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Consider, too, that Ottawa might have overreached with a "McKenney-type" progressive candidate.  Or, she might have stood a better chance vs a Larry O'Brien-type buffoon--Sutcliffe was "mushy enough", a la Brian Bowman in Winnipeg (another place where municipal amalgamation, albeit half a century old now, makes left-victory at-large difficult).

Incidentally, one annoying detail I'm finding w/major media reporting on the election: outside of Toronto, at least, a reluctance to actually offer *statistics*, particularly on a council level (i.e. just offering lists of candidates and winners, without actual numbers--I guess deferring to some kind of silent majority for whom numbers make their heads hurt, maybe under the presumption that those who *really* care about such detail can refer to Twitter or municipal websites)

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Vancouver today is like the old City of Toronto pre-amalgamation.  

But I think the argument about "not hard left outside of downtown core" *did* pertain to pre-amalgamation Toronto--or, it's the dynamic that generated a whole lot of "alas, we'll never beat the centre-right" hand-wringing when Rowlands defeated Layton for the mayoralty in '91.  (Then again, the ghost of that's evident in how John Tory fared in the former city vs Chow/Keesmaat/Penalosa in '14/18/22.)

Speaking of the current Toronto race vs past races: Chloe Brown getting 6.3% and 3rd place--a sleeper story of the election, thanks to her excellent debate performances--reminds me of the "single mom" insurgent campaign by Carolann Wright which got her nearly 20% of the vote vs Art Eggleton in '88.  And I suspect Brown could have done just as well or even better had Penalosa not already been the anointed "primary opposition" to John Tory.  (Remember: sharewise, 62% is a lukewarm endorsement for a "safe" incumbent.)

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Vancouver has had centre-right mayors including current, but part of that is spillover from provincial politics as BC Liberals actually win seats in Vancouver proper unlike federal Tories.  Not most and definitely behind BC NDP, but at least stronger base to work off. 

Except that these days, that's the "Liberal" part of "BC Liberal" talking.  It's still a big-tent entity.

Winnipeg while does not include rural areas like Hamilton and Ottawa, it stretches right out to countryside unlike Vancouver and Toronto which do not so it has areas that would be suburbs if in Vancouver or Toronto.  As such Tories at both levels don't tend to win city overall, but usually don't get shut out either.  But tend to be very much on the periphery.

Increasingly, "stretches right out to countryside" is, well, stretching it.  It's really more like Metro/Megacity Toronto in that regard.

Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton are more akin to county amalgamation in US and Toronto is like large metro areas includes multiple counties in the urban area but in most large metro areas you have city proper, some suburbs in same county, and suburbs beyond in neighbouring counties akin to 905 belt.  Toronto would be like Chicago including all of Cook County not just part as it does now while Collar counties like 905 belt.

Toronto's more like Winnipeg, actually--and remember that unlike Ottawa/Hamilton, it's not an "ex-county/region"; rather, it's an ex-unitary-metropolitan-authority which encompassed what had been the southernmost portion of York County.  (And in that regard, it might be more like the amalgamated NYC in 1898--though a bit the inverse, in that each of NYC's boroughs concurrently served as standalone counties.)

Ottawa and Hamilton are more like smaller cities where county they are in usually includes rural areas.  More like Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse and while those cities don't include countryside, the counties they are in do whereas in larger metro areas you have counties that are 100% urban.

True-ish enough--and it's telling that the US doesn't really get into this mega-amalgamation thing, with a few Indianapolis/Louisville/Lexington/Nashville/Jacksonville exceptions.

Prairie cities I find unlike in other provinces largely tend to match the urban/rural boundary perfectly so lack suburbs (save a few in Edmonton like St. Albert and Sherwood Park) and city limits usually same place it transitions from housing subdivisions to farmland.  By contrast in BC city is usually core with lots of suburbs beyond.  Victoria despite its smaller size is same.  Ontario is a mix as you have Toronto which includes lots of suburbs, but many beyond.  Kitchener which has suburbs beyond.  London which like Prairies largely matches urban/rural boundary, Windsor like Edmonton similar but a few small suburbs while Ottawa and Hamilton extend beyond into countryside.

Ontario's "mix" really has a lot to do with whatever was imposed by a political regime over the past half century, from the regions of the 1970s to the mega-amalgamations of the 1990s.  (And even London/Windsor were affected by the mega-amalgamation-mania--maybe more in the case of Windsor's suburbs than Windsor proper, but the annexation of Westminster Twp did have a way of "rurbanizing" London, even if it's more like Headingley-type zones relative to Winnipeg)

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Oh, and re the matter of political figureheads who controversially allied with the Freedom Convoy, it's worth noting that West Lincoln mayor Dave Bylsma (a former CHP/FCP candidate federally and provincially) was defeated by Cheryl Ganann in a 3768-to-1484 landslide.  And his council/convoy/former-CHP/FCP-candidate colleague Harold Jonker finished 3rd, and 17 votes away from 4th and last place.

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Incidentally, speaking of other jurisdictions, Tory-affiliated Scott Gillingham was just elected Winnipeg mayor by 27.5% (a record low) vs Glen Murray at 25.3%.  (The Pembina Institute sexual harassment reports certainly didn't help Murray.)

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It seems in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, and Winnipeg, you more or less had federal Liberals and Tories unite against NDP candidate.  Exact opposite of provincial politics in Prairies where generally federal NDP + federal Liberals unite behind provincial NDP vs. federal Tories supporting UCP, Saskatchewan Party or Manitoba PCs.

That doesn't quite apply in Winnipeg since Murray has been a Liberal most of his life. He ran federally for the Liberals in 2004 and he was an Ontario Liberal MPP and cabinet minister. He was definitely not "the NDP candidate". In fact most people in the NDP would rather crawl naked over a parking lot strewn with broken glass than vote for him

I thought Murray was NDP-affiliated during his original Winnipeg mayoralty?  (Provincially, at least, as that was the big-tent non-Tory allegiance of convenience.  In fact, his choosing to run for the federal Liberals in '04 threw some people for a loop.)

Also, I'm not sure how precisely Gil Penalosa fits the "NDP candidate" mold, except by default-option-of-convenience within your usual-suspect wards--it seems to me that he was positioning himself as a "planning progressive" sans partisanship (even more than Jennifer Keesmaat in '18, who carried more of a yuppie-Liberal cast).  If anyone had a "NDP candidate" feel, it was Chloe Brown--but what held her back was that Penalosa had been effectively "pre-anointed"...

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Wouldn't be surprised if the same "retirement homes, hospitals, or LTC facilities" dynamic pertains to Bob Bratina in Hamilton.