Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)

[DL]

Sutcliffe would probably be the city's first visible minority mayor, as he's 1/4 Chinese (though he looks White).

As a non-Canadian I’ve always found the term ‘visible minority’ to be a bit odd, but a quick Google suggests that’s taking it to new lengths.

It’s particularly odd to use the term “visible minority” to describe someone who is a totally Invisible minority group member since he looks 100% white. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say he would be Ottawa’s first partially racialiized mayor? Though I’ll bet there have been other mayors in the past who had some non-white blood that was never officially acknowledged

[DL]

Speaking of Sutcliffe, he released a list of his campaign co-chairs today. It's a real who's who of the Ottawa political establishment:

Claudette Cain (former Gloucester mayor)
Jean Cloutier (Alta Vista councillor)
Brian Coburn (former PC cabinet minister)
Jim Durrell (former mayor)
Eli El-Chantiry (West Carleton-March councillor)
Jacqueline Holzman (former mayor)
Marie-France Lalonde (Liberal MP)
Marjory LeBreton (former Conservative senate leader)
Madeleine Meilleur (former Liberal cabinet minister)
Jenna Sudds (Liberal MP)

All Liberals and Conservatives. Proof that at the heart of politics, the Liberals are not really a left of centre party.

In other words "Vote Sutcliffe for CONTINUITY with the Jim Watson" and "...from the people who gave you Jim Watson, meet Scott Sutcliffe"

[DL]

Isn't the mayor of Saskatoon Charlie Clark also very progressive and backed by the NDP and labour etc...?

[DL]

I can assure you that Valerie Plante is about as “NDP-like” as you can get in municipal politics in Montreal. Her first campaign manager went in to become Jagmeet Singh’s chief of staff and she has given speeches to the NDP-aligned Think tank the Broadbent Institute. She has twice defeated a big L Liberal named Denis Coderre for the Montreal mayoralty. Liberals all backed Coderre, Plante was the candidate of Quebec Solidaire and NDP types in Montreal

[DL]

I find it incredibly amusing that while David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data is managing Sutcliffe's campaign, Bruce Anderson, Abacus' chairman is backing McKenney:

I find it amusing that a campaign would be "managed" by a media pollster who as far as I can tell has ZERO experience with the nuts and bolts of running a local election campaign.

[DL]

Funnily enough, the school trustee race in my zone has become about masks and what not. The top two candidates have nearly identical platforms except for on masks. They're both very progressive, both endorsed by Horizon Ottawa, etc. However, one is an over zealous doctor who a huge Twitter following who insists on wearing a mask all the time, and got really upset at her opponent for not wearing a mask at a recent debate. Her opponent is more sane on the issue, saying we should follow Ottawa Public Health advice, but wrote an opinion piece in the Citizen saying we should go back to normal at schools and re-start school extra curriculars, etc.  She has attracted a rather usavoury following though, based solely on her opponent. The campaign is getting rather nasty.

I was originally going to vote for the doctor candidate, as she has been endorsed by McKenney and has some connections to the NDP, but now I am changing my vote (a very rare occurrence for me, to change my vote this late in the campaign). The fact that she didn't even send her kids to public school was the straw that broke the camels back. Plus, the provincial NDP candidate here endorsed her opponent, so I'm feeling good about my switch.

If you are referring to that Dr. Nili Kaplan-Myrrh - I don't blame you. If i had to choose between her and some rightwing Bible thumper I'd vote for her but if there is a sane progressive alternative I'll support that person. I had a lot of time for the Dr. in the early days of the pandemic but now she has just become histrionic and seems like a single issue candidate who wants the whole world to wear N95 masks in perpetuity. I saw her in a panel discussion on TVO and she was totally out of control screaming and name calling other panellists. I do NOT want that woman to have any future in the NDP or in progressive politics in Ottawa - the faster her political career is extinguished the better.

[DL]

So the final poll in Ottawa by Mainstreet seems to show that whatever momentum Sutcliffe had in recent weeks has stalled and McKenney leads him 42-38 among decided voters.

Of course its very close and could go either way. Looking at the crosstabs I'd say that Sutcliffe's advantage is that he does better among elderly voters who are usually more likely to vote. But on the other hand, McKenney has big leads among those with university educations and those with higher incomes and those are also segments who are more likely to vote so it may be a bit of a wash.

https://www.ipolitics.ca/queens-park/catherine-mckenney-has-very-narrow-lead-in-ottawa-mayoral-race-poll

  

[DL]

Scarborough Councillor Cynthia Lai has died.  Not sure what happens on Monday in this case.

The election goes ahead and her votes are discarded and the only other serious candidate is a leftwing activist named Jamaal Myers and he will likely win replacing LI who was a rightwing conservative

[DL]

Fairly undemocratic decision by the city clerk. The proper thing to do is cancel the election and hold a by-election OR indicate that a Lai win prompts a council vacancy.

It's also not the precedent in Canada, at least as far as I'm aware. I remember an instance in the last PEI election where a non-incumbent candidate died during the writ period, when it was too late for their party to replace them, so they just deferred the election in that riding to a by-election. Considering this is the death of an incumbent, it seems even worse that the City of Toronto wouldn't do the same.

Yes but maybe it’s different in a jurisdiction with a party system where you might want the party to be able to sub someone etc.,.you know there are something like 60 people on the ballot for mayor. Do we postpone the entire municipal election of any of them die before election day?

[DL]

Fwiw the centre of gravity on Toronto city council moves a few notches to the left with right wingers Grimes and Lai (RIP) replaced by progressives and with Tory supporter Bailao replaced by the very progressive Alejandra Bravo in Davenport

[DL]

There is a big difference between Vancouver and Toronto or Ottawa or Hamilton. There has never been any amalgamation in Metro Vancouver so the City of Vancouver is entirely the inner core of the Lower Mainland. Vancouver today is like the old City of Toronto pre-amalgamation. I think once reason Horwath won (though narrowly) is that Hamilton is a much more left leaning city than Ottawa. In 2018 the NDP won 4/5 seats in Hamilton while winning just 1 seat out of 7 in Ottawa. Also the Ottawa boundaries include a lot more rural areas than in Hamilton.

There are some weird patterns in municipal voting. Winnipeg is total NDP stronghold provincial and to a lesser extent federally, but keeps electing nothing but rightwing mayors. calgary is a Tory stronghold at every level and keeps electing centre-left mayors. Go figure

 

[DL]

Incidentally, speaking of other jurisdictions, Tory-affiliated Scott Gillingham was just elected Winnipeg mayor by 27.5% (a record low) vs Glen Murray at 25.3%.  (The Pembina Institute sexual harassment reports certainly didn't help Murray.)

FWIW Glen Murray is one of the most obnoxious, egotistical and insufferable people in the Canadian political world. There is no shortage of people - even on the left - who are quietly happy that he lost because he is such a horrible person!

He has burned so many bridges, he was an Ontario Liberal cabinet minister and the Premier's office had to force him to stay off of all social media because he could not keep his mouth shot and did lots of obvious drink tweeting. He ran for the OLP leadership - came in dead last, took a job with Pembina that apparently was a disaster, then when he got really desperate he ran for the federal Green party leadership in 2020 - and came in dead last again (or close to it). Then facing unemployment, he tried to make a comeback in Winnipeg and now that has also flopped. Its about time he realized that people are just not into him!

[DL]

It seems in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, and Winnipeg, you more or less had federal Liberals and Tories unite against NDP candidate.  Exact opposite of provincial politics in Prairies where generally federal NDP + federal Liberals unite behind provincial NDP vs. federal Tories supporting UCP, Saskatchewan Party or Manitoba PCs.

That doesn't quite apply in Winnipeg since Murray has been a Liberal most of his life. He ran federally for the Liberals in 2004 and he was an Ontario Liberal MPP and cabinet minister. He was definitely not "the NDP candidate". In fact most people in the NDP would rather crawl naked over a parking lot strewn with broken glass than vote for him