Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)

[mileslunn]

John Tory should win easily as unlike previous mayors he is a steady hand and little controversies.  Howarth is very popular in Hamilton so I expect her to win easily.  She probably loses rural parts but landslide in urban parts and ahead in suburban parts too.  Del Duca I think loses again in Vaughan.  Whatever one thinks of his policies, he is a horrible retail politician and that matters a lot these days.

[mileslunn]

My thoughts on the major ones are:

Toronto:  Total snooze fest and John Tory won easily as expected.  No serious opposition to him anyways

Mississauga: Ditto with Bonnie Crombie and no surprise.  But lets remember this is city which Hazel McCallon governed for almost 40 years and usually won by landslides

Brampton: Patrick Brown wins easily and no surprise.  Very popular in South Asian community and I never bought idea it was close.  Nick Kouvalis has a personal vendetta against Brown so his claim he was in trouble was complete nonsense.

Vaughan: Steve DelDuca becomes mayor but very close suggesting he isn't exactly that popular

Hamilton:  Howarth barely limps across the line and a lot closer than some thought.  My guess is she won big in the central parts which is where her base is, suburbs mixed, but did poorly in rural areas which tend to be fairly conservative.

Ottawa: I always thought Sutcliffe had edge.  For starters he speaks French so amongst Francophones had advantage.  Likewise not only endorsed by federal Tories, most federal Liberals save a few like Catherine McKenna endorsed him so it was really Liberals + Tories vs. NDP.  McKenney I think was a bridge too far and much like Vancouver, people in big cities maybe progressive, but outside downtown cores, most are not your woke left type.  Much more pragmatic types who don't care for politicians who are too right wing, but neither for overly left wing and Sutcliffe is quite moderate so acceptable to many federal Liberals.

[mileslunn]

There is a big difference between Vancouver and Toronto or Ottawa or Hamilton. There has never been any amalgamation in Metro Vancouver so the City of Vancouver is entirely the inner core of the Lower Mainland. Vancouver today is like the old City of Toronto pre-amalgamation. I think once reason Horwath won (though narrowly) is that Hamilton is a much more left leaning city than Ottawa. In 2018 the NDP won 4/5 seats in Hamilton while winning just 1 seat out of 7 in Ottawa. Also the Ottawa boundaries include a lot more rural areas than in Hamilton.

There are some weird patterns in municipal voting. Winnipeg is total NDP stronghold provincial and to a lesser extent federally, but keeps electing nothing but rightwing mayors. calgary is a Tory stronghold at every level and keeps electing centre-left mayors. Go figure

 

Vancouver has had centre-right mayors including current, but part of that is spillover from provincial politics as BC Liberals actually win seats in Vancouver proper unlike federal Tories.  Not most and definitely behind BC NDP, but at least stronger base to work off. 

Winnipeg while does not include rural areas like Hamilton and Ottawa, it stretches right out to countryside unlike Vancouver and Toronto which do not so it has areas that would be suburbs if in Vancouver or Toronto.  As such Tories at both levels don't tend to win city overall, but usually don't get shut out either.  But tend to be very much on the periphery.

Calgary is interesting but I've wondered if Alberta is really all that conservative or if voting Tory is more over regionalism and feeling they are only party that stands up for their province.  I think if Liberals or NDP federally were more pro oil and gas but kept other policies they would win more seats in Alberta.  Rural Alberta is obviously solidly right wing, but cities I think much less so.

Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton are more akin to county amalgamation in US and Toronto is like large metro areas includes multiple counties in the urban area but in most large metro areas you have city proper, some suburbs in same county, and suburbs beyond in neighbouring counties akin to 905 belt.  Toronto would be like Chicago including all of Cook County not just part as it does now while Collar counties like 905 belt.

Ottawa and Hamilton are more like smaller cities where county they are in usually includes rural areas.  More like Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse and while those cities don't include countryside, the counties they are in do whereas in larger metro areas you have counties that are 100% urban.

Prairie cities I find unlike in other provinces largely tend to match the urban/rural boundary perfectly so lack suburbs (save a few in Edmonton like St. Albert and Sherwood Park) and city limits usually same place it transitions from housing subdivisions to farmland.  By contrast in BC city is usually core with lots of suburbs beyond.  Victoria despite its smaller size is same.  Ontario is a mix as you have Toronto which includes lots of suburbs, but many beyond.  Kitchener which has suburbs beyond.  London which like Prairies largely matches urban/rural boundary, Windsor like Edmonton similar but a few small suburbs while Ottawa and Hamilton extend beyond into countryside.

[mileslunn]

Vancouver today is like the old City of Toronto pre-amalgamation.  

But I think the argument about "not hard left outside of downtown core" *did* pertain to pre-amalgamation Toronto--or, it's the dynamic that generated a whole lot of "alas, we'll never beat the centre-right" hand-wringing when Rowlands defeated Layton for the mayoralty in '91.  (Then again, the ghost of that's evident in how John Tory fared in the former city vs Chow/Keesmaat/Penalosa in '14/18/22.)

Speaking of the current Toronto race vs past races: Chloe Brown getting 6.3% and 3rd place--a sleeper story of the election, thanks to her excellent debate performances--reminds me of the "single mom" insurgent campaign by Carolann Wright which got her nearly 20% of the vote vs Art Eggleton in '88.  And I suspect Brown could have done just as well or even better had Penalosa not already been the anointed "primary opposition" to John Tory.  (Remember: sharewise, 62% is a lukewarm endorsement for a "safe" incumbent.)

Not all of old city was left wing most.  But its more areas south of St. Clair are decidely left wing but once you get up to Eglinton and Lawrence much more centrist.  Note most of Eglinton-Lawrence riding is in old city and it is held by PCs provincially while part of Don Valley West is which PCs almost won.  Old city actually almost looked like someone flipping the bird and the upper part of middle finger is more centrist to centre-right while the base of hand solidly left wing. 

Vancouver historically was divided along east vs. west as East side more working class so leaned left while West side more affluent so leaned right.  But in recent elections divide seems more north vs. south as opposed to east vs. west with north side more rentals and more multi-units so leans left while south side more detached homes so more favourable to centre-right candidates.  Southeastern quadrant is not wealthy like Southwestern one is, but large immigrant community and many favour lower taxes and tough on crime.  By contrast Northwester part may be quite expensive but has lots of condos and includes Kitsilano which is a young trendy area (I live there so know it well) so even if expensive, leans left.  Northeastern part off course has always been most left wing part of city.  Heck even in 2001 disaster for BC NDP, that was only part of province where BC NDP managed to survive.

[mileslunn]

Incidentally, speaking of other jurisdictions, Tory-affiliated Scott Gillingham was just elected Winnipeg mayor by 27.5% (a record low) vs Glen Murray at 25.3%.  (The Pembina Institute sexual harassment reports certainly didn't help Murray.)

Gillingham was also endorsed by Lloyd Axworthy.

It seems in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, and Winnipeg, you more or less had federal Liberals and Tories unite against NDP candidate.  Exact opposite of provincial politics in Prairies where generally federal NDP + federal Liberals unite behind provincial NDP vs. federal Tories supporting UCP, Saskatchewan Party or Manitoba PCs.

[mileslunn]

Hamilton and Ottawa now have results out, anyone able to do a map for either?

[mileslunn]

Here is Hamilton



And Ottawa



What is striking is in both, the progressive candidate dominated the old city pre-amalgamation while right of centre one dominated the newly added parts in the suburbs and rural parts.  Only reason Howarth won is about half of Hamilton's population lives in old city whereas in Ottawa it is only around 1/3.