Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I never thought the municipal politics of a city as infamously sleepy as Ottawa would be particularly interesting, but here we are. Keeping in mind that the mayoralty of Ottawa will become a vastly more powerful role under the Ford government's strong mayor legislation, a close race between McKenney and Sutcliffe could have some pretty big impacts.

If elected, McKenney would be the most left-wing mayor of a major Canadian city, or at least on par with Kennedy Stewart in Vancouver (who himself could be out of a job by tomorrow evening, the centre-right Ken Sim is ahead of him in the polls, and Stewart's popularity has suffered greatly in light of Vancouver's worsening addiction/homelessness/crime crisis). Sutcliffe's platform meanwhile reads right-leaning, although a John Tory-style "Liberal-Conservative fusion" kind of right-leaning, not an explicitly conservative one. Safe to say that Ford would prefer that Sutcliffe inherits his strong mayor powers, because it's hard to see him working well with McKenney.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Valerie Plante is pretty left wing, isn't she? I'd imagine McKenney would govern very similarly to her.

Plante always struck me as more of a left-liberal, while McKenney strikes me as someone who votes NDP. But that's increasingly a distinction without a difference as far as municipal issues go, and to be fair I'm not familiar enough with Plante or McKenney to definitively say that one is to the left of the other. At the very least though, McKenney would be on par with Plante, and relatively more left-wing considering that Ottawa is generally a less left-wing city than Montreal

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not sure what our definition of "major city" is, but Andrea in Hamilton might also be a contender for that title if she wins.  In her last term as opposition leader in Ontario's Legislature she made a sharp left turn from labour/union fighter to left-wing progressive. Although not sure she would govern that way as Mayor.

How did that work? I've read about how NDP circa 2011/2014 did very well in smaller postindustrial cities and poorly in Toronto because of Horwath's campaign style, but it doesn't seem like there's that much difference in today's Canada between union-oriented and progressive-oriented social democracy. Were there any actual policies she changed her mind on?

A lot of it was "vibes" to be honest. Horwath in 2014 tried to brand herself as a more "common sense" oriented kind of progressive, in contrast to Wynne's natural wonkiness. It was a bit like Mulcair in the sense that her policies were broadly centre-left, but her branding almost seemed centre-right. I'd say the NDP did shift to the left in 2018 in the sense of making bigger, bolder promises, but the ideology has always more or less been the same.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I stand corrected then, McKenney would be similar to Plante and therefore not uniquely left-wing among "big city" mayors (when I say big city, I'm mainly talking about Toronto, Mtl, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton - not even the top six in population per se, but just the most "influential" municipalities). Kennedy Stewart in Vancouver is pretty left-wing himself and could be re-elected tonight.

It's still worth watching what happens in Ottawa though, it's a city of a million, and strong mayor powers will change the relationship between council, mayor and the province. Ottawa city limits span into rural areas, and I can't imagine McKenney's priorities will sit well with the voters of deep Poilievre country. At the same time, Sutcliffe seems to be running on a platform that's at the very least John Tory-esque if not more to the right, and I can't imagine his priorities will sit well with the voters of deep Joel Harden territory. So it could be a good test case for how strong mayor powers will work at a practical level.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This is an odd and not measurable criteria?  "This person would be the most left-leaning out of a random unmeasurable criteria list I've created".  Odd.  It's a weird thing, I lived in Ottawa for about 6-7 years, and people in Ottawa were so obsessed with being over 1 million population, yet in the same breath would be upset with the province for having amalgamated Orleans, Kanata, (etc) into their City - the only reason the city was able to get over that 1 million.  Anyway, Mississauga would come ahead of Vancouver (and the former City of Ottawa without the suburbs) in population as a major city, with Brampton and Hamiton not far behind.

No, I'd say "Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa" makes sense. Looking at municipal population alone isn't very helpful. Sure, Mississauga has a larger population than Vancouver, but big cities are defined by more than just their population, you have to consider their economic and cultural power too. Vancouver is the primary economic engine and cultural powerhouse of the lower mainland in particular and BC more broadly, and has a metropolitan area centred around it. Whereas Mississauga is firmly in the Toronto circle of influence - same goes for Brampton, and to a lesser extent, Hamilton. Vancouver is certainly more of a "big city" in terms of its characteristics and overall influence than Mississauga or even Winnipeg, I would argue even Ottawa.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Speaking of Ottawa, it's interesting that sitting Liberal MPs and MPPs have all either endorsed Sutcliffe or made no endorsement at all - but Catherine McKenna and Mark Carney, who probably have more sway among Ottawa Liberals than any sitting legislator, are on Team McKenney.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So let's use the population of a city when it means it gets Ottawa over a million (again, not the urban/dense portions of Ottawa, only because of the huge amalgamated city), but not use population if it means Mississauga or Brampton get to be included on the list.  If you take the geographic area of a regular sized city and place it onto Ottawa, you get a population more similar to Winnipeg, Mississauga, Brampton, KW, than the other big cities you listed.

I never said population isn't relevant, it is. But population is only one factor that contributes to a city's overall influence. Mississauga and Vancouver illustrate this well - the former is a larger city, yet at the same time, less of a "big city" in terms of its amenities, cultural influence, and economic importance.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Anyway, back on topic. I brought up the new strong mayor powers the other day, and John Tory supports the move. But in Ottawa, McKenney, Sutcliffe and Chiarelli all said they wouldn't use it. I personally support this move by the province, but I guess it could come off as "power-hungry" for a mayoral candidate to say they would use it. That said, it's rare for politicians to voluntarily cede powers that they're entitled to use, so I wonder how genuine the candidates are in their anti-strong-mayor stance

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

What I find interesting about the Toronto election is that 4 years after all the hand-wringing over Faith Goldy's run (and with *two other* far-right standard-bearers on the ballot), there doesn't seem to be anyone at that end of the spectrum running for Toronto's mayoralty--I mean, the most the freedom-protest crowd might have to chew on is Sarah Climenhaga being anti-lockdown.  (And assorted "New Blue" types running for Council or whatever, w/o the slightest chance in blazes mainly because they're New Blue types in the first place)

And even then, Sarah Climenhaga is not remotely Faith Goldy. Everything in her platform except her opposition to mandates is fairly standard left-wing takes on municipal issues, although less "wonky left" and more "granola left". Although with that context, it's not that strange. Even though opposition to vaccine mandates and lockdowns has come to be something generally embraced by the right and generally shunned by the left, it's not an inherently right-wing position, there's a kind of left-libertarian, Harper-era Green Party appeal there.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Funnily enough, the school trustee race in my zone has become about masks and what not. The top two candidates have nearly identical platforms except for on masks. They're both very progressive, both endorsed by Horizon Ottawa, etc. However, one is an over zealous doctor who a huge Twitter following who insists on wearing a mask all the time, and got really upset at her opponent for not wearing a mask at a recent debate. Her opponent is more sane on the issue, saying we should follow Ottawa Public Health advice, but wrote an opinion piece in the Citizen saying we should go back to normal at schools and re-start school extra curriculars, etc.  She has attracted a rather usavoury following though, based solely on her opponent. The campaign is getting rather nasty.

I was originally going to vote for the doctor candidate, as she has been endorsed by McKenney and has some connections to the NDP, but now I am changing my vote (a very rare occurrence for me, to change my vote this late in the campaign). The fact that she didn't even send her kids to public school was the straw that broke the camels back. Plus, the provincial NDP candidate here endorsed her opponent, so I'm feeling good about my switch.

Ah yes, Dr. Nili "return to normalcy is a far-right dogwhistle" Kaplan-Myrth.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Fairly undemocratic decision by the city clerk. The proper thing to do is cancel the election and hold a by-election OR indicate that a Lai win prompts a council vacancy.

It's also not the precedent in Canada, at least as far as I'm aware. I remember an instance in the last PEI election where a non-incumbent candidate died during the writ period, when it was too late for their party to replace them, so they just deferred the election in that riding to a by-election. Considering this is the death of an incumbent, it seems even worse that the City of Toronto wouldn't do the same.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Patrick Brown charged Brampton taxpayers for CPC leadership campaign social media posts


Seems like old news, I know, but this hadn't actually been confirmed, just alleged. A FOI request found that it did indeed happen. The funny thing about "Patrick Brown scandal" is that it could be a headline from 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 or 2022. Hard to say whether he's actually in trouble in Brampton though.

It's funny to me how there's a certain kind of left-leaning voter who furiously defends Patrick Brown, just because of an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" thing, given his relationship with Ford and Poilievre. But Patrick Brown is like a caricature of a sleazy career politician whose only real aspiration is to hold some kind of political power and is willing to do anything to get it. It's kind of fitting that he's the mayor of a GTA city in that sense, tbh. But I do hope he loses.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Fairly undemocratic decision by the city clerk. The proper thing to do is cancel the election and hold a by-election OR indicate that a Lai win prompts a council vacancy.

It's also not the precedent in Canada, at least as far as I'm aware. I remember an instance in the last PEI election where a non-incumbent candidate died during the writ period, when it was too late for their party to replace them, so they just deferred the election in that riding to a by-election. Considering this is the death of an incumbent, it seems even worse that the City of Toronto wouldn't do the same.

Yes but maybe it’s different in a jurisdiction with a party system where you might want the party to be able to sub someone etc.,.you know there are something like 60 people on the ballot for mayor. Do we postpone the entire municipal election of any of them die before election day?

Well for one, this isn't a mayoral situation, it's a City Council seat. It wouldn't be a catastrophe to leave one seat vacant for a couple months until a by-election could be held. Or even if the election goes as planned and someone gets elected, hold a "recall" style by-election to test their confidence in a more fair playing field.

You raise a good point about what would happen in a Mayoral situation. If John Tory dropped dead tomorrow, I don't think it would be at all fair to give Gil Penalosa the keys to the Mayor's office for the next four years by default due to a force of nature, but you can't just leave the mayoralty vacant either. I think a recall byelection could work in this situation too though.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So, while most in the pundit community are totally surprised by the Ottawa results, I am not. I've been beating the "just like 2006" drum since Sutcliffe entered the race. I was hoping this city would've at least moved a few notches to the left since then, though. Apparently not; the margins were similar.

It looks like Ottawa did move to the left since 2006 though, but the right-wing candidate this time around was much "mushier" and more Liberal-adjacent. Larry O'Brien wasn't endorsed by any local Liberal MPs and MPPs for example. On the whole though it seems hard to argue that Ottawa hasn't moved to the left, looking at how Orleans has gone from a bellwether to a relatively safe Liberal seat, Ottawa West-Nepean used to elect John Baird as recently as 2011 yet voted NDP in an otherwise PC landslide (2022), and also in 2022, the NDP leapfrogged over the PCs in Ottawa South. So I'd say Ottawa has moved to the left, but the right found a non-partisan, vaguely centre-right but "non-scary" (John Tory-esque I'd say) candidate to coalesce around

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My thoughts on the major ones are:

Toronto:  Total snooze fest and John Tory won easily as expected.  No serious opposition to him anyways

Mississauga: Ditto with Bonnie Crombie and no surprise.  But lets remember this is city which Hazel McCallon governed for almost 40 years and usually won by landslides

Brampton: Patrick Brown wins easily and no surprise.  Very popular in South Asian community and I never bought idea it was close.  Nick Kouvalis has a personal vendetta against Brown so his claim he was in trouble was complete nonsense.

Vaughan: Steve DelDuca becomes mayor but very close suggesting he isn't exactly that popular

Hamilton:  Howarth barely limps across the line and a lot closer than some thought.  My guess is she won big in the central parts which is where her base is, suburbs mixed, but did poorly in rural areas which tend to be fairly conservative.

Ottawa: I always thought Sutcliffe had edge.  For starters he speaks French so amongst Francophones had advantage.  Likewise not only endorsed by federal Tories, most federal Liberals save a few like Catherine McKenna endorsed him so it was really Liberals + Tories vs. NDP.  McKenney I think was a bridge too far and much like Vancouver, people in big cities maybe progressive, but outside downtown cores, most are not your woke left type.  Much more pragmatic types who don't care for politicians who are too right wing, but neither for overly left wing and Sutcliffe is quite moderate so acceptable to many federal Liberals.

Agree with you on most of that, but with McKenney I don't think their problem was being too "woke" or even as left-wing as, say, Kennedy Stewart. It's more like what you said for Hamilton, amalgamation has meant that urban/suburban/rural interests fall under the same municipality, and Sutcliffe did a better job of appealing to the suburbs

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

There are some weird patterns in municipal voting. Winnipeg is total NDP stronghold provincial and to a lesser extent federally, but keeps electing nothing but rightwing mayors. calgary is a Tory stronghold at every level and keeps electing centre-left mayors. Go figure

I think an important part of it is that, if you're an ambitious and skilled politician whose partisan affiliation is with a party that doesn't typically win seats in your city, you're better off going municipal where you don't carry partisan baggage. Doug Ford Sr was a backbencher in the Mike Harris government, if Rob or Doug had chosen to run as PC candidates in the Tory/Hudak years, they would have been random also-rans that nobody had ever heard of. Or if one or both of them ran under Harper, maybe they would have won a seat in 2011, and most likely been a nameless backbencher who eventually got swept up in 2015 (or in Robbie's case, a backbencher who was dropped from caucus after the crack video embarrassed the Harper gov't). Similarly, Naheed Nenshi would have gone absolutely nowhere as a LPC partisan in Calgary, at most winning a seat in the 2015 red wave only to get BTFO'd in the 2019 blue wave.

Hell, I mentioned John Tory, and when he was PC leader he didn't even win a seat for himself in Don Valley West, which went on to be a very John Tory-inclined ward in his municipal runs.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And to that point about partisan baggage, perhaps nobody illustrates this better than Amarjeet Sohi. Clearly Edmontonians liked him enough to vote him in as mayor with a pretty strong 45% mandate, but when he had "Liberal" next to his name, his own riding of Mill Woods (which is the most "LPC" riding in Edmonton, to boot) didn't seem to like him very much.