Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)

[Benjamin Frank]

Toronto, 1223/1535 reporting:

Tory 60.76%
Peñalosa 18.09%
Chloe-Marie Brown 7.26% (rando who appears left-leaning)

That's very fast counting!

[Hash]

In Brampton, everybody's favourite sleazy ethnic machine politician Patrick Brown has been reelected with over 60% although with extremely low turnout (under 20% with 72.5% counted). In Mississauga, Bonnie Crombie has 63,000 votes and her closest opponent has less than 6,000 votes (with 75% counted). No results yet in Hamilton, where some polling stations were opened for longer because of issues of some sort.

[Hash]

In Ottawa, with a quarter counted, it's getting somewhat closer: Sutcliffe 51.6% and McKenney 37.8%. Hopefully McKenney can continue closing the gap...

[Hash]

CBC Ottawa has called it for Sutcliffe.

It was predictable given the people who live in the suburbs and the boonies, but f- this useless city. Just garbage.

... and CBC Ottawa proceeds to sing his praises in some propaganda commentary worthy of state media. Not surprising.

[2952-0-0]

It was predictable given the people who live in the suburbs and the boonies, but f- this useless city. Just garbage.

The election in Toronto was a complete snooze-fest, yet I'm still disappointed that the few people that voted, voted to continue the status quo. Meanwhile, garbage bins are stinking, the subway is always facing delays, parks are always closed for repairs, and drug addicts are still sleeping in doorways.

[adma]

It was predictable given the people who live in the suburbs and the boonies, but f- this useless city. Just garbage.

The election in Toronto was a complete snooze-fest, yet I'm still disappointed that the few people that voted, voted to continue the status quo. Meanwhile, garbage bins are stinking, the subway is always facing delays, parks are always closed for repairs, and drug addicts are still sleeping in doorways.

Actually, it's not quite the snooze-fest one'd expect; it looks like Toronto Council shifted left--Grimes defeated, Nunziata endangered, the anticipated slam-dunk of Bravo replacing Bailao, the asterisked matter of Jamaal Myers...

[Hash]

It was predictable given the people who live in the suburbs and the boonies, but f- this useless city. Just garbage.

The election in Toronto was a complete snooze-fest, yet I'm still disappointed that the few people that voted, voted to continue the status quo. Meanwhile, garbage bins are stinking, the subway is always facing delays, parks are always closed for repairs, and drug addicts are still sleeping in doorways.

I mean, with hindsight, it was obvious: McKenney had their stable base but obvious ceiling, and the undecideds would break for status-quo Sutcliffe in the suburbs and the boonies. Quintessential Ontario municipal election, post-Harris amalgamation: the suburbanites and assorted hicks in the woods love their predictable, plodding managerial pro-developer establishment 'moderates' who keep their taxes low, ensure a modicum of third-rate public transportation to function and have nice parks and fountains for the kids, while letting developers destroy the urban landscape downtown and expand the city further out.

There will never be actual progressive change at the local level in Ontario.

[toaster]

It was predictable given the people who live in the suburbs and the boonies, but f- this useless city. Just garbage.

The election in Toronto was a complete snooze-fest, yet I'm still disappointed that the few people that voted, voted to continue the status quo. Meanwhile, garbage bins are stinking, the subway is always facing delays, parks are always closed for repairs, and drug addicts are still sleeping in doorways.

Actually, it's not quite the snooze-fest one'd expect; it looks like Toronto Council shifted left--Grimes defeated, Nunziata endangered, the anticipated slam-dunk of Bravo replacing Bailao, the asterisked matter of Jamaal Myers...

So happy Morley won in Ward 3 against Grimes!  Nunziata -> too close too call. Dianne Saxe is leading now, despite CP24 calling it for Norm earlier in the night.

Also, it's very close in Vaughan right now, and Hamilton.  Both leaders might lose again.

[adma]

It was predictable given the people who live in the suburbs and the boonies, but f- this useless city. Just garbage.

The election in Toronto was a complete snooze-fest, yet I'm still disappointed that the few people that voted, voted to continue the status quo. Meanwhile, garbage bins are stinking, the subway is always facing delays, parks are always closed for repairs, and drug addicts are still sleeping in doorways.

I mean, with hindsight, it was obvious: McKenney had their stable base but obvious ceiling, and the undecideds would break for status-quo Sutcliffe in the suburbs and the boonies. Quintessential Ontario municipal election, post-Harris amalgamation: the suburbanites and assorted hicks in the woods love their predictable, plodding managerial pro-developer establishment 'moderates' who keep their taxes low, ensure a modicum of third-rate public transportation to function and have nice parks and fountains for the kids, while letting developers destroy the urban landscape downtown and expand the city further out.

There will never be actual progressive change at the local level in Ontario.

Could be a ditto situation in Hamilton, where it's neck-and-neck for Horwath vs Loomis.

[adma]

And now, media outlets are declaring Horwath the winner--but by a squeaker.  (Another thing Ottawa & Hamilton have in common: humiliating 3rd-place oblivion for octogenarian ex-mayors/parliamentarians.  Just because Biden "validates" advanced-age runs doesn't mean everyone should try it.)

And for a twofer, *Del Duca* has won the Vaughan mayoralty by a squeaker as well.

[DL]

Fwiw the centre of gravity on Toronto city council moves a few notches to the left with right wingers Grimes and Lai (RIP) replaced by progressives and with Tory supporter Bailao replaced by the very progressive Alejandra Bravo in Davenport

[adma]

Consider, too, that Ottawa might have overreached with a "McKenney-type" progressive candidate.  Or, she might have stood a better chance vs a Larry O'Brien-type buffoon--Sutcliffe was "mushy enough", a la Brian Bowman in Winnipeg (another place where municipal amalgamation, albeit half a century old now, makes left-victory at-large difficult).

Incidentally, one annoying detail I'm finding w/major media reporting on the election: outside of Toronto, at least, a reluctance to actually offer *statistics*, particularly on a council level (i.e. just offering lists of candidates and winners, without actual numbers--I guess deferring to some kind of silent majority for whom numbers make their heads hurt, maybe under the presumption that those who *really* care about such detail can refer to Twitter or municipal websites)

[Hatman 🍁]

So, while most in the pundit community are totally surprised by the Ottawa results, I am not. I've been beating the "just like 2006" drum since Sutcliffe entered the race. I was hoping this city would've at least moved a few notches to the left since then, though. Apparently not; the margins were similar.

On city council, there were a few big wins. Good to see Laine Johnson win in College (a huge improvement over slime ball Rick Chiarelli) and NDPer Sean Devine won in Knoxdale-Merivale. Also pretty happy that another NDPer (but, a more moderate one) Marty Carr won in my ward, defeating John Fraser's EA. Alta Vista has never had a progressive councillor until now. One huge disappointment was Rideau-Vanier where the establishment candidate Stephanie Plante won over the progressive candidate, Laura Shantz. I'm assuming some of this was a desire to elect a Francophone candidate in this traditionally Fanco ward.

Also, I have NO idea how she did it, but Nili Kaplan-Myrth won my school zone. I thought after recent events she would've lost in a landslide. I suppose the McKenney endorsement helped her in the Capital Ward part of the zone. I feel really bad for her opponent.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So, while most in the pundit community are totally surprised by the Ottawa results, I am not. I've been beating the "just like 2006" drum since Sutcliffe entered the race. I was hoping this city would've at least moved a few notches to the left since then, though. Apparently not; the margins were similar.

It looks like Ottawa did move to the left since 2006 though, but the right-wing candidate this time around was much "mushier" and more Liberal-adjacent. Larry O'Brien wasn't endorsed by any local Liberal MPs and MPPs for example. On the whole though it seems hard to argue that Ottawa hasn't moved to the left, looking at how Orleans has gone from a bellwether to a relatively safe Liberal seat, Ottawa West-Nepean used to elect John Baird as recently as 2011 yet voted NDP in an otherwise PC landslide (2022), and also in 2022, the NDP leapfrogged over the PCs in Ottawa South. So I'd say Ottawa has moved to the left, but the right found a non-partisan, vaguely centre-right but "non-scary" (John Tory-esque I'd say) candidate to coalesce around

[mileslunn]

My thoughts on the major ones are:

Toronto:  Total snooze fest and John Tory won easily as expected.  No serious opposition to him anyways

Mississauga: Ditto with Bonnie Crombie and no surprise.  But lets remember this is city which Hazel McCallon governed for almost 40 years and usually won by landslides

Brampton: Patrick Brown wins easily and no surprise.  Very popular in South Asian community and I never bought idea it was close.  Nick Kouvalis has a personal vendetta against Brown so his claim he was in trouble was complete nonsense.

Vaughan: Steve DelDuca becomes mayor but very close suggesting he isn't exactly that popular

Hamilton:  Howarth barely limps across the line and a lot closer than some thought.  My guess is she won big in the central parts which is where her base is, suburbs mixed, but did poorly in rural areas which tend to be fairly conservative.

Ottawa: I always thought Sutcliffe had edge.  For starters he speaks French so amongst Francophones had advantage.  Likewise not only endorsed by federal Tories, most federal Liberals save a few like Catherine McKenna endorsed him so it was really Liberals + Tories vs. NDP.  McKenney I think was a bridge too far and much like Vancouver, people in big cities maybe progressive, but outside downtown cores, most are not your woke left type.  Much more pragmatic types who don't care for politicians who are too right wing, but neither for overly left wing and Sutcliffe is quite moderate so acceptable to many federal Liberals.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My thoughts on the major ones are:

Toronto:  Total snooze fest and John Tory won easily as expected.  No serious opposition to him anyways

Mississauga: Ditto with Bonnie Crombie and no surprise.  But lets remember this is city which Hazel McCallon governed for almost 40 years and usually won by landslides

Brampton: Patrick Brown wins easily and no surprise.  Very popular in South Asian community and I never bought idea it was close.  Nick Kouvalis has a personal vendetta against Brown so his claim he was in trouble was complete nonsense.

Vaughan: Steve DelDuca becomes mayor but very close suggesting he isn't exactly that popular

Hamilton:  Howarth barely limps across the line and a lot closer than some thought.  My guess is she won big in the central parts which is where her base is, suburbs mixed, but did poorly in rural areas which tend to be fairly conservative.

Ottawa: I always thought Sutcliffe had edge.  For starters he speaks French so amongst Francophones had advantage.  Likewise not only endorsed by federal Tories, most federal Liberals save a few like Catherine McKenna endorsed him so it was really Liberals + Tories vs. NDP.  McKenney I think was a bridge too far and much like Vancouver, people in big cities maybe progressive, but outside downtown cores, most are not your woke left type.  Much more pragmatic types who don't care for politicians who are too right wing, but neither for overly left wing and Sutcliffe is quite moderate so acceptable to many federal Liberals.

Agree with you on most of that, but with McKenney I don't think their problem was being too "woke" or even as left-wing as, say, Kennedy Stewart. It's more like what you said for Hamilton, amalgamation has meant that urban/suburban/rural interests fall under the same municipality, and Sutcliffe did a better job of appealing to the suburbs

[Hatman 🍁]

So, while most in the pundit community are totally surprised by the Ottawa results, I am not. I've been beating the "just like 2006" drum since Sutcliffe entered the race. I was hoping this city would've at least moved a few notches to the left since then, though. Apparently not; the margins were similar.

It looks like Ottawa did move to the left since 2006 though, but the right-wing candidate this time around was much "mushier" and more Liberal-adjacent. Larry O'Brien wasn't endorsed by any local Liberal MPs and MPPs for example. On the whole though it seems hard to argue that Ottawa hasn't moved to the left, looking at how Orleans has gone from a bellwether to a relatively safe Liberal seat, Ottawa West-Nepean used to elect John Baird as recently as 2011 yet voted NDP in an otherwise PC landslide (2022), and also in 2022, the NDP leapfrogged over the PCs in Ottawa South. So I'd say Ottawa has moved to the left, but the right found a non-partisan, vaguely centre-right but "non-scary" (John Tory-esque I'd say) candidate to coalesce around

This is true, both candidates were more to the left than in 2006, but other than that, both elections are near identical.

[DL]

There is a big difference between Vancouver and Toronto or Ottawa or Hamilton. There has never been any amalgamation in Metro Vancouver so the City of Vancouver is entirely the inner core of the Lower Mainland. Vancouver today is like the old City of Toronto pre-amalgamation. I think once reason Horwath won (though narrowly) is that Hamilton is a much more left leaning city than Ottawa. In 2018 the NDP won 4/5 seats in Hamilton while winning just 1 seat out of 7 in Ottawa. Also the Ottawa boundaries include a lot more rural areas than in Hamilton.

There are some weird patterns in municipal voting. Winnipeg is total NDP stronghold provincial and to a lesser extent federally, but keeps electing nothing but rightwing mayors. calgary is a Tory stronghold at every level and keeps electing centre-left mayors. Go figure

 

[mileslunn]

There is a big difference between Vancouver and Toronto or Ottawa or Hamilton. There has never been any amalgamation in Metro Vancouver so the City of Vancouver is entirely the inner core of the Lower Mainland. Vancouver today is like the old City of Toronto pre-amalgamation. I think once reason Horwath won (though narrowly) is that Hamilton is a much more left leaning city than Ottawa. In 2018 the NDP won 4/5 seats in Hamilton while winning just 1 seat out of 7 in Ottawa. Also the Ottawa boundaries include a lot more rural areas than in Hamilton.

There are some weird patterns in municipal voting. Winnipeg is total NDP stronghold provincial and to a lesser extent federally, but keeps electing nothing but rightwing mayors. calgary is a Tory stronghold at every level and keeps electing centre-left mayors. Go figure

 

Vancouver has had centre-right mayors including current, but part of that is spillover from provincial politics as BC Liberals actually win seats in Vancouver proper unlike federal Tories.  Not most and definitely behind BC NDP, but at least stronger base to work off. 

Winnipeg while does not include rural areas like Hamilton and Ottawa, it stretches right out to countryside unlike Vancouver and Toronto which do not so it has areas that would be suburbs if in Vancouver or Toronto.  As such Tories at both levels don't tend to win city overall, but usually don't get shut out either.  But tend to be very much on the periphery.

Calgary is interesting but I've wondered if Alberta is really all that conservative or if voting Tory is more over regionalism and feeling they are only party that stands up for their province.  I think if Liberals or NDP federally were more pro oil and gas but kept other policies they would win more seats in Alberta.  Rural Alberta is obviously solidly right wing, but cities I think much less so.

Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton are more akin to county amalgamation in US and Toronto is like large metro areas includes multiple counties in the urban area but in most large metro areas you have city proper, some suburbs in same county, and suburbs beyond in neighbouring counties akin to 905 belt.  Toronto would be like Chicago including all of Cook County not just part as it does now while Collar counties like 905 belt.

Ottawa and Hamilton are more like smaller cities where county they are in usually includes rural areas.  More like Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse and while those cities don't include countryside, the counties they are in do whereas in larger metro areas you have counties that are 100% urban.

Prairie cities I find unlike in other provinces largely tend to match the urban/rural boundary perfectly so lack suburbs (save a few in Edmonton like St. Albert and Sherwood Park) and city limits usually same place it transitions from housing subdivisions to farmland.  By contrast in BC city is usually core with lots of suburbs beyond.  Victoria despite its smaller size is same.  Ontario is a mix as you have Toronto which includes lots of suburbs, but many beyond.  Kitchener which has suburbs beyond.  London which like Prairies largely matches urban/rural boundary, Windsor like Edmonton similar but a few small suburbs while Ottawa and Hamilton extend beyond into countryside.

[adma]

Vancouver today is like the old City of Toronto pre-amalgamation.  

But I think the argument about "not hard left outside of downtown core" *did* pertain to pre-amalgamation Toronto--or, it's the dynamic that generated a whole lot of "alas, we'll never beat the centre-right" hand-wringing when Rowlands defeated Layton for the mayoralty in '91.  (Then again, the ghost of that's evident in how John Tory fared in the former city vs Chow/Keesmaat/Penalosa in '14/18/22.)

Speaking of the current Toronto race vs past races: Chloe Brown getting 6.3% and 3rd place--a sleeper story of the election, thanks to her excellent debate performances--reminds me of the "single mom" insurgent campaign by Carolann Wright which got her nearly 20% of the vote vs Art Eggleton in '88.  And I suspect Brown could have done just as well or even better had Penalosa not already been the anointed "primary opposition" to John Tory.  (Remember: sharewise, 62% is a lukewarm endorsement for a "safe" incumbent.)

[mileslunn]

Vancouver today is like the old City of Toronto pre-amalgamation.  

But I think the argument about "not hard left outside of downtown core" *did* pertain to pre-amalgamation Toronto--or, it's the dynamic that generated a whole lot of "alas, we'll never beat the centre-right" hand-wringing when Rowlands defeated Layton for the mayoralty in '91.  (Then again, the ghost of that's evident in how John Tory fared in the former city vs Chow/Keesmaat/Penalosa in '14/18/22.)

Speaking of the current Toronto race vs past races: Chloe Brown getting 6.3% and 3rd place--a sleeper story of the election, thanks to her excellent debate performances--reminds me of the "single mom" insurgent campaign by Carolann Wright which got her nearly 20% of the vote vs Art Eggleton in '88.  And I suspect Brown could have done just as well or even better had Penalosa not already been the anointed "primary opposition" to John Tory.  (Remember: sharewise, 62% is a lukewarm endorsement for a "safe" incumbent.)

Not all of old city was left wing most.  But its more areas south of St. Clair are decidely left wing but once you get up to Eglinton and Lawrence much more centrist.  Note most of Eglinton-Lawrence riding is in old city and it is held by PCs provincially while part of Don Valley West is which PCs almost won.  Old city actually almost looked like someone flipping the bird and the upper part of middle finger is more centrist to centre-right while the base of hand solidly left wing. 

Vancouver historically was divided along east vs. west as East side more working class so leaned left while West side more affluent so leaned right.  But in recent elections divide seems more north vs. south as opposed to east vs. west with north side more rentals and more multi-units so leans left while south side more detached homes so more favourable to centre-right candidates.  Southeastern quadrant is not wealthy like Southwestern one is, but large immigrant community and many favour lower taxes and tough on crime.  By contrast Northwester part may be quite expensive but has lots of condos and includes Kitsilano which is a young trendy area (I live there so know it well) so even if expensive, leans left.  Northeastern part off course has always been most left wing part of city.  Heck even in 2001 disaster for BC NDP, that was only part of province where BC NDP managed to survive.

[adma]

Vancouver has had centre-right mayors including current, but part of that is spillover from provincial politics as BC Liberals actually win seats in Vancouver proper unlike federal Tories.  Not most and definitely behind BC NDP, but at least stronger base to work off. 

Except that these days, that's the "Liberal" part of "BC Liberal" talking.  It's still a big-tent entity.

Winnipeg while does not include rural areas like Hamilton and Ottawa, it stretches right out to countryside unlike Vancouver and Toronto which do not so it has areas that would be suburbs if in Vancouver or Toronto.  As such Tories at both levels don't tend to win city overall, but usually don't get shut out either.  But tend to be very much on the periphery.

Increasingly, "stretches right out to countryside" is, well, stretching it.  It's really more like Metro/Megacity Toronto in that regard.

Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton are more akin to county amalgamation in US and Toronto is like large metro areas includes multiple counties in the urban area but in most large metro areas you have city proper, some suburbs in same county, and suburbs beyond in neighbouring counties akin to 905 belt.  Toronto would be like Chicago including all of Cook County not just part as it does now while Collar counties like 905 belt.

Toronto's more like Winnipeg, actually--and remember that unlike Ottawa/Hamilton, it's not an "ex-county/region"; rather, it's an ex-unitary-metropolitan-authority which encompassed what had been the southernmost portion of York County.  (And in that regard, it might be more like the amalgamated NYC in 1898--though a bit the inverse, in that each of NYC's boroughs concurrently served as standalone counties.)

Ottawa and Hamilton are more like smaller cities where county they are in usually includes rural areas.  More like Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse and while those cities don't include countryside, the counties they are in do whereas in larger metro areas you have counties that are 100% urban.

True-ish enough--and it's telling that the US doesn't really get into this mega-amalgamation thing, with a few Indianapolis/Louisville/Lexington/Nashville/Jacksonville exceptions.

Prairie cities I find unlike in other provinces largely tend to match the urban/rural boundary perfectly so lack suburbs (save a few in Edmonton like St. Albert and Sherwood Park) and city limits usually same place it transitions from housing subdivisions to farmland.  By contrast in BC city is usually core with lots of suburbs beyond.  Victoria despite its smaller size is same.  Ontario is a mix as you have Toronto which includes lots of suburbs, but many beyond.  Kitchener which has suburbs beyond.  London which like Prairies largely matches urban/rural boundary, Windsor like Edmonton similar but a few small suburbs while Ottawa and Hamilton extend beyond into countryside.

Ontario's "mix" really has a lot to do with whatever was imposed by a political regime over the past half century, from the regions of the 1970s to the mega-amalgamations of the 1990s.  (And even London/Windsor were affected by the mega-amalgamation-mania--maybe more in the case of Windsor's suburbs than Windsor proper, but the annexation of Westminster Twp did have a way of "rurbanizing" London, even if it's more like Headingley-type zones relative to Winnipeg)

[adma]

Oh, and re the matter of political figureheads who controversially allied with the Freedom Convoy, it's worth noting that West Lincoln mayor Dave Bylsma (a former CHP/FCP candidate federally and provincially) was defeated by Cheryl Ganann in a 3768-to-1484 landslide.  And his council/convoy/former-CHP/FCP-candidate colleague Harold Jonker finished 3rd, and 17 votes away from 4th and last place.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

There are some weird patterns in municipal voting. Winnipeg is total NDP stronghold provincial and to a lesser extent federally, but keeps electing nothing but rightwing mayors. calgary is a Tory stronghold at every level and keeps electing centre-left mayors. Go figure

I think an important part of it is that, if you're an ambitious and skilled politician whose partisan affiliation is with a party that doesn't typically win seats in your city, you're better off going municipal where you don't carry partisan baggage. Doug Ford Sr was a backbencher in the Mike Harris government, if Rob or Doug had chosen to run as PC candidates in the Tory/Hudak years, they would have been random also-rans that nobody had ever heard of. Or if one or both of them ran under Harper, maybe they would have won a seat in 2011, and most likely been a nameless backbencher who eventually got swept up in 2015 (or in Robbie's case, a backbencher who was dropped from caucus after the crack video embarrassed the Harper gov't). Similarly, Naheed Nenshi would have gone absolutely nowhere as a LPC partisan in Calgary, at most winning a seat in the 2015 red wave only to get BTFO'd in the 2019 blue wave.

Hell, I mentioned John Tory, and when he was PC leader he didn't even win a seat for himself in Don Valley West, which went on to be a very John Tory-inclined ward in his municipal runs.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And to that point about partisan baggage, perhaps nobody illustrates this better than Amarjeet Sohi. Clearly Edmontonians liked him enough to vote him in as mayor with a pretty strong 45% mandate, but when he had "Liberal" next to his name, his own riding of Mill Woods (which is the most "LPC" riding in Edmonton, to boot) didn't seem to like him very much.