Ontario municipal elections (Oct 24)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not sure what our definition of "major city" is, but Andrea in Hamilton might also be a contender for that title if she wins.  In her last term as opposition leader in Ontario's Legislature she made a sharp left turn from labour/union fighter to left-wing progressive. Although not sure she would govern that way as Mayor.

How did that work? I've read about how NDP circa 2011/2014 did very well in smaller postindustrial cities and poorly in Toronto because of Horwath's campaign style, but it doesn't seem like there's that much difference in today's Canada between union-oriented and progressive-oriented social democracy. Were there any actual policies she changed her mind on?

A lot of it was "vibes" to be honest. Horwath in 2014 tried to brand herself as a more "common sense" oriented kind of progressive, in contrast to Wynne's natural wonkiness. It was a bit like Mulcair in the sense that her policies were broadly centre-left, but her branding almost seemed centre-right. I'd say the NDP did shift to the left in 2018 in the sense of making bigger, bolder promises, but the ideology has always more or less been the same.

[Benjamin Frank]

We finally have a Toronto mayoral poll!

Forum Research, Oct 8

Tory: 56 (-7 from 2018)
Penalosa: 20 (-4 from Keesmaat's % in 2018)
Others: 24

It's hard for big city mayors especially to still be that popular after two terms.

[Hatman 🍁]

Plante's party is considered social democratic, and does well in Le Plateau, which is also the area where QS and the NDP do the best. She lives in Boulerice's riding, I would be surprised if she doesn't vote for him.

Here are the parties/ideologies for the mayors of Canada's largest cities:

John Tory (Toronto) - Cons.
Valérie Plante (Montreal) - Project Montreal (left of centre)
Jyoti Gondek (Calgary) - centrist, maybe ever so left of centre
Jim Watson (Ottawa) - Liberal
Amarjeet Sohi (Edmonton) - Liberal
Bonnie Crombie (Mississauga) - Liberal
Brian Bowman (Winnipeg) - Cons.
Kennedy Stewart (Vancouver) - NDP
Patrick Brown (Brampton) - Cons.
Fred Eisenberger (Hamilton) - Cons.
Bruno Marchand (Quebec City) - Québec forte et fière (centrist)
Doug McCaullum (Surrey) - Cons.
Stéphane Boyer (Laval) - Mouvement lavallois (social democratic)
Mike Savage (Halifax) - Liberal
Ed Holder (London) - Cons.
Frank Scarpitti (Markham) - Liberal
Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan) - Liberal
France Bélisle (Gatineau) - Vaguely centrist from what I remember
Charlie Clark (Saskatoon) - centre-left
Catherine Fournier (Longueuil) - Coalition Longueuil/BQ/PQ
Berry Vrbanovic (Kitchener) - Liberal
Mike Hurley (Burnaby) - centre-left
Drew Dilkens (Windsor) - Cons. I think
Sandra Masters (Regina) - vaguely centrist?
Malcolm Brodie (Richmond) - Formerly Richmond Non-Partisan Association, a centre-right party

[DL]

I can assure you that Valerie Plante is about as “NDP-like” as you can get in municipal politics in Montreal. Her first campaign manager went in to become Jagmeet Singh’s chief of staff and she has given speeches to the NDP-aligned Think tank the Broadbent Institute. She has twice defeated a big L Liberal named Denis Coderre for the Montreal mayoralty. Liberals all backed Coderre, Plante was the candidate of Quebec Solidaire and NDP types in Montreal

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet has a Brampton internal for Brown showing him at 66%.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I stand corrected then, McKenney would be similar to Plante and therefore not uniquely left-wing among "big city" mayors (when I say big city, I'm mainly talking about Toronto, Mtl, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton - not even the top six in population per se, but just the most "influential" municipalities). Kennedy Stewart in Vancouver is pretty left-wing himself and could be re-elected tonight.

It's still worth watching what happens in Ottawa though, it's a city of a million, and strong mayor powers will change the relationship between council, mayor and the province. Ottawa city limits span into rural areas, and I can't imagine McKenney's priorities will sit well with the voters of deep Poilievre country. At the same time, Sutcliffe seems to be running on a platform that's at the very least John Tory-esque if not more to the right, and I can't imagine his priorities will sit well with the voters of deep Joel Harden territory. So it could be a good test case for how strong mayor powers will work at a practical level.

[Hatman 🍁]

I find it incredibly amusing that while David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data is managing Sutcliffe's campaign, Bruce Anderson, Abacus' chairman is backing McKenney:

https://twitter.com/bruceanderson/status/1581712075625152513

[Hatman 🍁]

Mark Carney of all people has endorsed McKenney...

https://twitter.com/MarkJCarney/status/1581721003972927488

[Njall]

Mark Carney of all people has endorsed McKenney...

https://twitter.com/MarkJCarney/status/1581721003972927488

Gerald Butts has too:

https://twitter.com/gmbutts/status/1581731178868281344?s=20&t=7SYjuA-2ynrLhU...

[Hatman 🍁]

The "former" Liberal establishment is coming out in favour of McKenney (Catherine McKenna also endorsed them). They're not worried about their jobs.

[toaster]

Not sure what our definition of "major city" is, but Andrea in Hamilton might also be a contender for that title if she wins.  In her last term as opposition leader in Ontario's Legislature she made a sharp left turn from labour/union fighter to left-wing progressive. Although not sure she would govern that way as Mayor.

How did that work? I've read about how NDP circa 2011/2014 did very well in smaller postindustrial cities and poorly in Toronto because of Horwath's campaign style, but it doesn't seem like there's that much difference in today's Canada between union-oriented and progressive-oriented social democracy. Were there any actual policies she changed her mind on?

A lot of it was "vibes" to be honest. Horwath in 2014 tried to brand herself as a more "common sense" oriented kind of progressive, in contrast to Wynne's natural wonkiness. It was a bit like Mulcair in the sense that her policies were broadly centre-left, but her branding almost seemed centre-right. I'd say the NDP did shift to the left in 2018 in the sense of making bigger, bolder promises, but the ideology has always more or less been the same.

Yes, it also could be that the caucus grew with some more 'woke' personalities in 2018, and Andrea followed the party.  But the campaign this year felt like it took on more of that 'woke' ideology, perhaps because the party wanted to win/keep the urban ridings they gained. I also just think the climate shift as well. But Andrea shifted along with it. What I've seen in her mayoral campaign has been pretty moderate.

I stand corrected then, McKenney would be similar to Plante and therefore not uniquely left-wing among "big city" mayors (when I say big city, I'm mainly talking about Toronto, Mtl, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton - not even the top six in population per se, but just the most "influential" municipalities). Kennedy Stewart in Vancouver is pretty left-wing himself and could be re-elected tonight.

It's still worth watching what happens in Ottawa though, it's a city of a million, and strong mayor powers will change the relationship between council, mayor and the province. Ottawa city limits span into rural areas, and I can't imagine McKenney's priorities will sit well with the voters of deep Poilievre country. At the same time, Sutcliffe seems to be running on a platform that's at the very least John Tory-esque if not more to the right, and I can't imagine his priorities will sit well with the voters of deep Joel Harden territory. So it could be a good test case for how strong mayor powers will work at a practical level.

This is an odd and not measurable criteria?  "This person would be the most left-leaning out of a random unmeasurable criteria list I've created".  Odd.  It's a weird thing, I lived in Ottawa for about 6-7 years, and people in Ottawa were so obsessed with being over 1 million population, yet in the same breath would be upset with the province for having amalgamated Orleans, Kanata, (etc) into their City - the only reason the city was able to get over that 1 million.  Anyway, Mississauga would come ahead of Vancouver (and the former City of Ottawa without the suburbs) in population as a major city, with Brampton and Hamiton not far behind.

[adma]

This is an odd and not measurable criteria?  "This person would be the most left-leaning out of a random unmeasurable criteria list I've created".  Odd.  It's a weird thing, I lived in Ottawa for about 6-7 years, and people in Ottawa were so obsessed with being over 1 million population, yet in the same breath would be upset with the province for having amalgamated Orleans, Kanata, (etc) into their City - the only reason the city was able to get over that 1 million.  Anyway, Mississauga would come ahead of Vancouver (and the former City of Ottawa without the suburbs) in population as a major city, with Brampton and Hamiton not far behind.

And Hamilton's in the same mega-amalgamated boat as Ottawa, while Mississauga and Brampton are, like Laval or Burnaby/Richmond/Surrey, more suburbs in city guise--Arlingtons rather than Fort Worths, so to speak...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This is an odd and not measurable criteria?  "This person would be the most left-leaning out of a random unmeasurable criteria list I've created".  Odd.  It's a weird thing, I lived in Ottawa for about 6-7 years, and people in Ottawa were so obsessed with being over 1 million population, yet in the same breath would be upset with the province for having amalgamated Orleans, Kanata, (etc) into their City - the only reason the city was able to get over that 1 million.  Anyway, Mississauga would come ahead of Vancouver (and the former City of Ottawa without the suburbs) in population as a major city, with Brampton and Hamiton not far behind.

No, I'd say "Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa" makes sense. Looking at municipal population alone isn't very helpful. Sure, Mississauga has a larger population than Vancouver, but big cities are defined by more than just their population, you have to consider their economic and cultural power too. Vancouver is the primary economic engine and cultural powerhouse of the lower mainland in particular and BC more broadly, and has a metropolitan area centred around it. Whereas Mississauga is firmly in the Toronto circle of influence - same goes for Brampton, and to a lesser extent, Hamilton. Vancouver is certainly more of a "big city" in terms of its characteristics and overall influence than Mississauga or even Winnipeg, I would argue even Ottawa.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Speaking of Ottawa, it's interesting that sitting Liberal MPs and MPPs have all either endorsed Sutcliffe or made no endorsement at all - but Catherine McKenna and Mark Carney, who probably have more sway among Ottawa Liberals than any sitting legislator, are on Team McKenney.

[adma]

No, I'd say "Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa" makes sense. Looking at municipal population alone isn't very helpful. Sure, Mississauga has a larger population than Vancouver, but big cities are defined by more than just their population, you have to consider their economic and cultural power too. Vancouver is the primary economic engine and cultural powerhouse of the lower mainland in particular and BC more broadly, and has a metropolitan area centred around it. Whereas Mississauga is firmly in the Toronto circle of influence - same goes for Brampton, and to a lesser extent, Hamilton. Vancouver is certainly more of a "big city" in terms of its characteristics and overall influence than Mississauga or even Winnipeg, I would argue even Ottawa.

Yeah, one must realize that "city" is more than the abstract matter of politically distinct megaburbs (a notion that began to coalesce in the 60s/70s w/the likes of Mississauga or Laval) or the amalgamated megamunicipalities of the past 3 decades.  Because only a moron or somebody who wasn't born yet in 1990ish and doesn't know any better would take the present city-county geographic definition of "Ottawa" seriously--which is why the whole population size + municipal definition barometer's been irretrievably degraded in recent times.

Heck, one might claim that even without *its* nitwit mega-amalgamation, on economic-and-cultural-power grounds *Halifax* is more of a "big city" than Surrey or Mississauga.

[Hatman 🍁]

The only objective way to measure cities when we're talking about municipal elections is by the size of their electorate.

[toaster]

This is an odd and not measurable criteria?  "This person would be the most left-leaning out of a random unmeasurable criteria list I've created".  Odd.  It's a weird thing, I lived in Ottawa for about 6-7 years, and people in Ottawa were so obsessed with being over 1 million population, yet in the same breath would be upset with the province for having amalgamated Orleans, Kanata, (etc) into their City - the only reason the city was able to get over that 1 million.  Anyway, Mississauga would come ahead of Vancouver (and the former City of Ottawa without the suburbs) in population as a major city, with Brampton and Hamiton not far behind.

No, I'd say "Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa" makes sense. Looking at municipal population alone isn't very helpful. Sure, Mississauga has a larger population than Vancouver, but big cities are defined by more than just their population, you have to consider their economic and cultural power too. Vancouver is the primary economic engine and cultural powerhouse of the lower mainland in particular and BC more broadly, and has a metropolitan area centred around it. Whereas Mississauga is firmly in the Toronto circle of influence - same goes for Brampton, and to a lesser extent, Hamilton. Vancouver is certainly more of a "big city" in terms of its characteristics and overall influence than Mississauga or even Winnipeg, I would argue even Ottawa.

I would not include Ottawa in that list, then. You referred to the fact that Ottawa was over 1 million in your original post as a reason for including it

It's still worth watching what happens in Ottawa though, it's a city of a million, and strong mayor powers will change the relationship between council, mayor and the province.

So let's use the population of a city when it means it gets Ottawa over a million (again, not the urban/dense portions of Ottawa, only because of the huge amalgamated city), but not use population if it means Mississauga or Brampton get to be included on the list.  If you take the geographic area of a regular sized city and place it onto Ottawa, you get a population more similar to Winnipeg, Mississauga, Brampton, KW, than the other big cities you listed.

[adma]

The only objective way to measure cities when we're talking about municipal elections is by the size of their electorate.

True, which is why a lot of this discussion is less about electorate size than about the abstract notion of "clout".

(And in that light, it might be argued that Hazel McCallion's long Mississauga reign was more an illumination of Mississauga as an overgrown small town)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So let's use the population of a city when it means it gets Ottawa over a million (again, not the urban/dense portions of Ottawa, only because of the huge amalgamated city), but not use population if it means Mississauga or Brampton get to be included on the list.  If you take the geographic area of a regular sized city and place it onto Ottawa, you get a population more similar to Winnipeg, Mississauga, Brampton, KW, than the other big cities you listed.

I never said population isn't relevant, it is. But population is only one factor that contributes to a city's overall influence. Mississauga and Vancouver illustrate this well - the former is a larger city, yet at the same time, less of a "big city" in terms of its amenities, cultural influence, and economic importance.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Anyway, back on topic. I brought up the new strong mayor powers the other day, and John Tory supports the move. But in Ottawa, McKenney, Sutcliffe and Chiarelli all said they wouldn't use it. I personally support this move by the province, but I guess it could come off as "power-hungry" for a mayoral candidate to say they would use it. That said, it's rare for politicians to voluntarily cede powers that they're entitled to use, so I wonder how genuine the candidates are in their anti-strong-mayor stance

[Hatman 🍁]

Ford isn't particularly popular in Ottawa, so it makes sense that the candidates wouldn't support his strong mayor powers idea.

[DL]

I find it incredibly amusing that while David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data is managing Sutcliffe's campaign, Bruce Anderson, Abacus' chairman is backing McKenney:

I find it amusing that a campaign would be "managed" by a media pollster who as far as I can tell has ZERO experience with the nuts and bolts of running a local election campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

I find it incredibly amusing that while David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data is managing Sutcliffe's campaign, Bruce Anderson, Abacus' chairman is backing McKenney:

I find it amusing that a campaign would be "managed" by a media pollster who as far as I can tell has ZERO experience with the nuts and bolts of running a local election campaign.

Yeah, and the results have been.... as expected. If Sutcliffe wins, it won't be because of having a good campaign.

[adma]

What I find interesting about the Toronto election is that 4 years after all the hand-wringing over Faith Goldy's run (and with *two other* far-right standard-bearers on the ballot), there doesn't seem to be anyone at that end of the spectrum running for Toronto's mayoralty--I mean, the most the freedom-protest crowd might have to chew on is Sarah Climenhaga being anti-lockdown.  (And assorted "New Blue" types running for Council or whatever, w/o the slightest chance in blazes mainly because they're New Blue types in the first place)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

What I find interesting about the Toronto election is that 4 years after all the hand-wringing over Faith Goldy's run (and with *two other* far-right standard-bearers on the ballot), there doesn't seem to be anyone at that end of the spectrum running for Toronto's mayoralty--I mean, the most the freedom-protest crowd might have to chew on is Sarah Climenhaga being anti-lockdown.  (And assorted "New Blue" types running for Council or whatever, w/o the slightest chance in blazes mainly because they're New Blue types in the first place)

And even then, Sarah Climenhaga is not remotely Faith Goldy. Everything in her platform except her opposition to mandates is fairly standard left-wing takes on municipal issues, although less "wonky left" and more "granola left". Although with that context, it's not that strange. Even though opposition to vaccine mandates and lockdowns has come to be something generally embraced by the right and generally shunned by the left, it's not an inherently right-wing position, there's a kind of left-libertarian, Harper-era Green Party appeal there.