How will Pat Ryan's victory affect the Midterms?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I think it will help Republicans. This is a wake up call that they're asleep at the wheel...I expect Republicans to gain at least 40 seats now instead of 30.

[Ferguson97]

Username checks out.

The Kansas referendum should have been the wake-up call, but it clearly didn't work.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It will make democrats overconfident and they will change nothing. Whether Republicans change is a different question. You would think it would cause them to change their position on abortion, election denials etc. But they seem like they have completely gone off the rails.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

People care more about 'birthing persons' dying from a dangerous pregnancy originating in rape then they do about Democrats calling them birthing persons.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter Pat Ryan is running in NY 18 and Molinari probably wins the new NY 19 but it's a BELLWETHERS the R wave is doA and the polling still sux

[sting in the rafters]

It will make democrats overconfident and they will change nothing. Whether Republicans change is a different question. You would think it would cause them to change their position on abortion, election denials etc. But they seem like they have completely gone off the rails.

Joey’s itinerary next week includes unveiling his gun violence epidemic response in Wilkes-Barre. Likewise Trump will spend Labor Day Weekend bringing the World’s Largest Political College Football Tailgate^TM to the minor league Pens’ arena and play his Greatest Hits for the “Pennsylvania Trump Ticket’s” benefit. SCOTUS overreaches and inflation have clearly galvanized both voter coalitions and the respective parties are deploying as if they expect a neutral environment. We’re only getting started.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

I think this is really overstated. It def changes things around the margins but likely wont make or break the majorly unless we seem things come down to the wire.

OH: The main difference is under a truly fair map, Dems would’ve gotten a 2nd lean D seat in Columbus. Also OH-01 would be safe D but as the lines are drawn today OH-01 will be part of any Dem majority

FL: The Desantis map mostly just eliminates competitive seats that prolly would’ve been swept by the gop in 2022. The only real difference when it comes to make or break the majorly is the lack of a blue Jacksonville based seat.

NY: Saves Malliotakis, and prolly gives NY-01 to Rs, however, NY-19, NY-18, NY-03, NY-22, ect all all well to the left of the median House district and would be part of a Dem majority.

So that’s a grand total of 4 seats! Sure those 4 seats could have a huge impact if things are close but that’s not the make or break reason why Dems aren’t competitive in the House.

Also a reminder Dems had victories redistricting as well (NJ, CA, MI). It’d be quite rare for them to have swept every legal battle and had everything go right for them.

Just for some hypotheticals on the flip side

-On a Bipartisan or R NJ map, Kim wouldn’t be as secure and NJ-07 would be a Trump district

-Pretty extreme racial sorting in the Central Valley by the commission helped give Dems that Fresno seat and a shot at Valadao’s Biden + 13 district

-OR Dems were very strategic in getting their maps passed when at one point it seemed like we’d get bipartisan or court maps

-CT and NH special masters doing least change - prolly saves Hayes and helps Papas

-Pennsylvania Supreme Court choosing a map that clearly unpacks Pittsburg and Philly in the name of partisan balance. Just look at how far out the new PA-04 stretches! A different map could’ve made PA-17 in winnable for Dems and made one of PA-04/06 vulnerable

-For 2022, the NC Court adopting a map which could very well give Dems 6 or 7 seats.

So no, redistricting losses aren’t the reason Dems aren’t favored in the House; redistricting battels overall broke even

[Minnesota Mike]

Besides helping Ryan and hurting Molinaro not much. Special elections are symptoms of the national mood not the cause of it.

[Xing]

Nice SnowLabrador impersonation. I also wonder whether Ryan padding to his margin or not will help Republicans.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, is there any outcome that won't help the GOP according to Doomers?

I'm not sure it will have a huge impact nationally, but reaffirms that some shift in favor of Dems is real. At least Dems are eager to turn out. Biden's latest legislatative wins, Trump's ongoing presence and Dobbs make this possible.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

I think this is really overstated. It def changes things around the margins but likely wont make or break the majorly unless we seem things come down to the wire.

OH: The main difference is under a truly fair map, Dems would’ve gotten a 2nd lean D seat in Columbus. Also OH-01 would be safe D but as the lines are drawn today OH-01 will be part of any Dem majority

FL: The Desantis map mostly just eliminates competitive seats that prolly would’ve been swept by the gop in 2022. The only real difference when it comes to make or break the majorly is the lack of a blue Jacksonville based seat.

NY: Saves Malliotakis, and prolly gives NY-01 to Rs, however, NY-19, NY-18, NY-03, NY-22, ect all all well to the left of the median House district and would be part of a Dem majority.

So that’s a grand total of 4 seats! Sure those 4 seats could have a huge impact if things are close but that’s not the make or break reason why Dems aren’t competitive in the House.

Also a reminder Dems had victories redistricting as well (NJ, CA, MI). It’d be quite rare for them to have swept every legal battle and had everything go right for them.

Just for some hypotheticals on the flip side

-On a Bipartisan or R NJ map, Kim wouldn’t be as secure and NJ-07 would be a Trump district

-Pretty extreme racial sorting in the Central Valley by the commission helped give Dems that Fresno seat and a shot at Valadao’s Biden + 13 district

-OR Dems were very strategic in getting their maps passed when at one point it seemed like we’d get bipartisan or court maps

-CT and NH special masters doing least change - prolly saves Hayes and helps Papas

-Pennsylvania Supreme Court choosing a map that clearly unpacks Pittsburg and Philly in the name of partisan balance. Just look at how far out the new PA-04 stretches! A different map could’ve made PA-17 in winnable for Dems and made one of PA-04/06 vulnerable

-For 2022, the NC Court adopting a map which could very well give Dems 6 or 7 seats.

So no, redistricting losses aren’t the reason Dems aren’t favored in the House; redistricting battels overall broke even

A few things to note

-Democrats still have a decent shot at flipping NY-01 even if it’s not the slam dunk it would have been on the first map.
-Dems already have a decent shot at up to 5 OH seats. And a fair map probably still doesn’t secure them 9 or 13. Aside from the second Columbus seat they may get a suburban Cuyahoga seat that could still go GOP depending on how it’s drawn.
-For FL the legislature’s map probably gives the Dems at least an even shot at 13 and 15.
-NJ-07 being a Trump seat is moot since Malinowski is likely to lose anyways. But there’s a possibility there’s a second or even third competitive seat in North Jersey.
-CA could have been worse with the Modesto seat being truly competitive.
-Pappas could still lose this year.
-PA-17 could still flip.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

I think this is really overstated. It def changes things around the margins but likely wont make or break the majorly unless we seem things come down to the wire.

OH: The main difference is under a truly fair map, Dems would’ve gotten a 2nd lean D seat in Columbus. Also OH-01 would be safe D but as the lines are drawn today OH-01 will be part of any Dem majority

FL: The Desantis map mostly just eliminates competitive seats that prolly would’ve been swept by the gop in 2022. The only real difference when it comes to make or break the majorly is the lack of a blue Jacksonville based seat.

NY: Saves Malliotakis, and prolly gives NY-01 to Rs, however, NY-19, NY-18, NY-03, NY-22, ect all all well to the left of the median House district and would be part of a Dem majority.

So that’s a grand total of 4 seats! Sure those 4 seats could have a huge impact if things are close but that’s not the make or break reason why Dems aren’t competitive in the House.

Also a reminder Dems had victories redistricting as well (NJ, CA, MI). It’d be quite rare for them to have swept every legal battle and had everything go right for them.

Just for some hypotheticals on the flip side

-On a Bipartisan or R NJ map, Kim wouldn’t be as secure and NJ-07 would be a Trump district

-Pretty extreme racial sorting in the Central Valley by the commission helped give Dems that Fresno seat and a shot at Valadao’s Biden + 13 district

-OR Dems were very strategic in getting their maps passed when at one point it seemed like we’d get bipartisan or court maps

-CT and NH special masters doing least change - prolly saves Hayes and helps Papas

-Pennsylvania Supreme Court choosing a map that clearly unpacks Pittsburg and Philly in the name of partisan balance. Just look at how far out the new PA-04 stretches! A different map could’ve made PA-17 in winnable for Dems and made one of PA-04/06 vulnerable

-For 2022, the NC Court adopting a map which could very well give Dems 6 or 7 seats.

So no, redistricting losses aren’t the reason Dems aren’t favored in the House; redistricting battels overall broke even

Well I mean the legal decisions probably cut the Dems down by about 10 seats. If they have, say, a 15% chance at holding the House, they probably have another 15-20% chance of coming within a 223-212 majority (which would be the GOP flipping about 10 seats). 35% is a solid chance.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

I think this is really overstated. It def changes things around the margins but likely wont make or break the majorly unless we seem things come down to the wire.

OH: The main difference is under a truly fair map, Dems would’ve gotten a 2nd lean D seat in Columbus. Also OH-01 would be safe D but as the lines are drawn today OH-01 will be part of any Dem majority

OK, just factually very, very inaccurate. The gerrymander was drawn to elect a 13-2 republican delegation. That may not happen b/c of a borderline brain dead gop candidate in OH-09 and dems pulling off the mild upset in OH-01, but that's what it was drawn to do. A "truly fair" map would elect an 8-7 republican delegation. The difference between the current map and a truly fair one is as much as a 10 seat difference in the House.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

I think this is really overstated. It def changes things around the margins but likely wont make or break the majorly unless we seem things come down to the wire.

OH: The main difference is under a truly fair map, Dems would’ve gotten a 2nd lean D seat in Columbus. Also OH-01 would be safe D but as the lines are drawn today OH-01 will be part of any Dem majority

OK, just factually very, very inaccurate. The gerrymander was drawn to elect a 13-2 republican delegation. That may not happen b/c of a borderline brain dead gop candidate in OH-09 and dems pulling off the mild upset in OH-01, but that's what it was drawn to do. A "truly fair" map would elect an 8-7 republican delegation. The difference between the current map and a truly fair one is as much as a 10 seat difference in the House.

I don't think they mean fair map but the best case reasonable scenario the court could impose.

[Spectator]

It won’t. It just signals that this probably isn’t a red wave year, and that it seems more like 2020. It seems neutral.

It’s still a pretty low turnout affair. So with higher turnout who knows if Molinaro may have won. I thought his purported strength was always overblown. His win in the district in the 2018 gubernatorial race was always more a reflection of Cuomo’s weakness than any particular appeal of his own.

[Woody]

Pathetic result for Democrats. Last time around Delgado won by 11 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pathetic result for Democrats. Last time around Delgado won by 11 points.

The polls said that Rs were gonna win by 8

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Pathetic result for Democrats. Last time around Delgado won by 11 points.

By this logic then the result suggested by the Data For Progress poll would have been indicative of an R+16 environment?

[Spectator]

Pathetic result for Democrats. Last time around Delgado won by 11 points.

Last time Molinaro ran, he won the district by 11 points in his Governor run too.

[Brittain33]

Pathetic result for Democrats. Last time around Delgado won by 11 points.

Great insight, please tell us more!

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

He's got to win the General Election for a full 2 year term.  The electorate will be different.

I'm sure that scads of NYC volunteers came out for the day to deliver the seat to Ryan's efforts.  Now don't tell me that didn't happen.  I've lived that dream.  In 1982, in a Long Island Assembly District, the Democrat won a 58-42 victory in a district that was 3 1/2 to 1 Republican.  Every hack on Meade Esposito's payroll came for the day, as well as lots of Assembly staffers.

Ryan's a County Executive in a major county in the district, so he's got a solid base to win again.  over the years he's the KIND of Democrat that can hold such a district.  The real question is what does it mean that he won by only 2 points.

[Brittain33]

If Democratic volunteers are driving 3 hours north to volunteer for a special election for a few months in Congress (which he’s presented no evidence for, but maybe it happened), that’s outstanding news about grass roots energy on the Democratic side. Dobbs really opened Pandora’s box for the Rs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's got to win the General Election for a full 2 year term.  The electorate will be different.

I'm sure that scads of NYC volunteers came out for the day to deliver the seat to Ryan's efforts.  Now don't tell me that didn't happen.  I've lived that dream.  In 1982, in a Long Island Assembly District, the Democrat won a 58-42 victory in a district that was 3 1/2 to 1 Republican.  Every hack on Meade Esposito's payroll came for the day, as well as lots of Assembly staffers.

Ryan's a County Executive in a major county in the district, so he's got a solid base to win again.  over the years he's the KIND of Democrat that can hold such a district.  The real question is what does it mean that he won by only 2 points.

D's aren't losing NY he is running in NY 18 not 19, do honestly believe D's are gonna lose a swing District in NY, LOL

[Boobs]

If Democratic volunteers are driving 3 hours north to volunteer for a special election for a few months in Congress (which he’s presented no evidence for, but maybe it happened), that’s outstanding news about grass roots energy on the Democratic side. Dobbs really opened Pandora’s box for the Rs.

Okay, but have you been to the Hudson Valley? Who wouldn’t go there if they’re stuck in NYC during the miserable summer months.