CA-GOV (Univ of CA/Berkeley): Newsom +27

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1562116613666635778

[Duke of York]

I would be shocked if Newsom got less than 60 percent of the vote.

[President Johnson]

LV has Newsom up 55-31%.

I would be shocked if Newsom got less than 60 percent of the vote.

He might even do better than in 2018 and the recall. Fivethirtyeight had him at over 63% yesterday. My current prediction would something like 62.5-37.5%.

Titanium Democratic. At least there's one post-primary poll now.

[Canis]

LV has Newsom up 55-31%.

I would be shocked if Newsom got less than 60 percent of the vote.

He might even do better than in 2018 and the recall. Fivethirtyeight had him at over 63% yesterday. My current prediction would something like 62.5-37.5%.

Titanium Democratic. At least there's one post-primary poll now.

Agreed. The national environment will help Dahle out slightly but his campaign has pretty much no money and R donors don't want to light money on fire after the recall so it probably balances out and Allows Newsom to win by the same margin as 2018 if not a point or two higher since he'll be the only one on the airwaves.

[President Johnson]

LV has Newsom up 55-31%.

I would be shocked if Newsom got less than 60 percent of the vote.

He might even do better than in 2018 and the recall. Fivethirtyeight had him at over 63% yesterday. My current prediction would something like 62.5-37.5%.

Titanium Democratic. At least there's one post-primary poll now.

Agreed. The national environment will help Dahle out slightly but his campaign has pretty much no money and R donors don't want to light money on fire after the recall so it probably balances out and Allows Newsom to win by the same margin as 2018 if not a point or two higher since he'll be the only one on the airwaves.

I'm not sure the national environment will help Dahle out much. Remember that the 2010 and 2014 Republican waves stopped at the border to California (and it's even up for debate whether 2022 will merely be a red ripple).

[Canis]

LV has Newsom up 55-31%.

I would be shocked if Newsom got less than 60 percent of the vote.

He might even do better than in 2018 and the recall. Fivethirtyeight had him at over 63% yesterday. My current prediction would something like 62.5-37.5%.

Titanium Democratic. At least there's one post-primary poll now.

Agreed. The national environment will help Dahle out slightly but his campaign has pretty much no money and R donors don't want to light money on fire after the recall so it probably balances out and Allows Newsom to win by the same margin as 2018 if not a point or two higher since he'll be the only one on the airwaves.

I'm not sure the national environment will help Dahle out much. Remember that the 2010 and 2014 Republican waves stopped at the border to California (and it's even up for debate whether 2022 will merely be a red ripple).

Obama won CA by 24 and 23 points respectively in 2008 and 2012. Brown won by 13 and 20 in 2010 and 2014. so Brown still significantly underperformed probably partially due to the national environment and the differences between state and federal races. I do agree though that were likely not gonna see a red wave year this year so Newsom will probably do better than 2018 but by how much is up for debate and we'll have to wait for election day to see.

[OSR stands with Israel]

LV has Newsom up 55-31%.

I would be shocked if Newsom got less than 60 percent of the vote.

He might even do better than in 2018 and the recall. Fivethirtyeight had him at over 63% yesterday. My current prediction would something like 62.5-37.5%.

Titanium Democratic. At least there's one post-primary poll now.

Agreed. The national environment will help Dahle out slightly but his campaign has pretty much no money and R donors don't want to light money on fire after the recall so it probably balances out and Allows Newsom to win by the same margin as 2018 if not a point or two higher since he'll be the only one on the airwaves.

I'm not sure the national environment will help Dahle out much. Remember that the 2010 and 2014 Republican waves stopped at the border to California (and it's even up for debate whether 2022 will merely be a red ripple).

It’s interesting that the best election for California Republicans since 1998 was not 2002 or 2010 but 2006 . I think California being as big as it does make it’s politics sort of it’s own thing rather than influenced by national environment  .

[President Johnson]

LV has Newsom up 55-31%.

I would be shocked if Newsom got less than 60 percent of the vote.

He might even do better than in 2018 and the recall. Fivethirtyeight had him at over 63% yesterday. My current prediction would something like 62.5-37.5%.

Titanium Democratic. At least there's one post-primary poll now.

Agreed. The national environment will help Dahle out slightly but his campaign has pretty much no money and R donors don't want to light money on fire after the recall so it probably balances out and Allows Newsom to win by the same margin as 2018 if not a point or two higher since he'll be the only one on the airwaves.

I'm not sure the national environment will help Dahle out much. Remember that the 2010 and 2014 Republican waves stopped at the border to California (and it's even up for debate whether 2022 will merely be a red ripple).

Obama won CA by 24 and 23 points respectively in 2008 and 2012. Brown won by 13 and 20 in 2010 and 2014. so Brown still significantly underperformed probably partially due to the national environment and the differences between state and federal races. I do agree though that were likely not gonna see a red wave year this year so Newsom will probably do better than 2018 but by how much is up for debate and we'll have to wait for election day to see.

I was more referring to House elections. No California seat in 2010 or 2014 flipped Republican. Gubernatorial elections are still somewhat detached from national politics and were even more so back in 2010.

[Sir Mohamed]

I would be shocked if Newsom got less than 60 percent of the vote.

Dahle is also a weak candidate and Newsom has turned around his public image since the recall. That one might actually helped him and fed into the narrative the GOP is kind of overreaching.

I expect Newsom to slightly outperform his 2018 margin. With turnout apparently up again, the big question is whether he can beat his 2018 raw votes. Perhaps break the 8 million mark.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why NEWSOM is winning isn't just because of he changed his public image it's also because of Kevin McCarthy the voters don't want Kevin McCarthy as Speaker if he wins Speakership he isn't winning it because of Ca, he is winning it because of TX and FL the Rs kicked out Rangal over gifts and McCarthy protects GAETZ whom has Lewinsky

Kevin McCarthy doesn't come from LA or SF or SD he comes from Bakersfield

People told me why are they voting D, they say they don't want to make Kevin McCarthy Speaker before the GAETZ scandal whites in CA liked Kevin McCarthy and said they wanted him Speaker, so D's winning in CA is also due to Kevin McCarthy