NY-19 Special Election Data for Progress: Molinaro + 8

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Are we really arguing about polling in the notoriously difficult to predict turnout environment of a summer special election?

Decent chance the Republican wins here, given that it's a district that leans Republican relative to the national average. That being said, also a decent chance that it's closer than Republicans would like to see, and possible the Dem wins it. This poll doesn't change any of that.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO this place is going to be insufferable bc of a few posters.

> WA, KS, MN-01, and NE-01, and GCB polling all indicate a neutral environment
> Wonky NY-19 result : Red wave is back on!

[2016]

RIP, looks like the Red Wave is back on.

It was never off. There many examples of referendums that pass in a particular state ad then the electorate overwhelmingly votes for candidates who take the opposite stance(MO right to work for instance)

NE-1 and MN-1 were neutral environment elections, not red wave results.

Democrats still don't get it and neither do Republicans IMO when it comes to the House. The GOP doesn't need a Wave to take it. They only need 5-6 Seats.

Pelosi got all the Major Bills passed having only most of the time 222 Seats.

The Magic Number for me is 218.

[Pollster]

No comment on the accuracy/legitimacy of this poll, but no way the electorate will be 30% age 70+. Lunacy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

RIP, looks like the Red Wave is back on.

It was never off. There many examples of referendums that pass in a particular state ad then the electorate overwhelmingly votes for candidates who take the opposite stance(MO right to work for instance)

NE-1 and MN-1 were neutral environment elections, not red wave results.

Because tuts obvious special election dynamics now benefit democrats because increasingly our voter coalition is more comprised of people who always show up even in off year/elections at a weird date. I bet you anything if VA Gov was in July instead of November, McAuliffe would have gotten a second term

[Tintrlvr]

RIP, looks like the Red Wave is back on.

At least wait till we get results! You'll only be waiting like 12 hours max before we know who won (well, hopefully... maybe New York vote counting will totally fail again).

[Eraserhead]

I guess Ryan's gonna serve my congressional district instead.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's depressing. But it's exactly why I didn't get my hopes up about Ryan winning anyway (what is it with candidates named Ryan doing this to us this year?).

A win here just doesn't seem in the cards. I suppose we should be happy if he over-performs this poll at all, or if we compare it to Molinaro's 2018 performance in the district, and if Molinaro only wins by low single digits. It would at least indicate that he could lose in the newer iteration of the district in November.

I still won't know how to square that with the other post-Dobbs special elections though. Perhaps it doesn't mean anything. Perhaps none of the special elections meant anything. Perhaps Molinaro is just an incredibly strong candidate for this district and that's all there was too it. Perhaps this completely rules out any chance of the Democrats keeping the House (not that this notion was very realistic in the first place). It's also just so weird that by far the most Democratic of the recent special elections might have the biggest swing against us. I don't know, but this would very much be a result we shouldn't want to see any way you slice it.

Yeah, that one is going to flip. Am I correct that this would be the first flip of any special election in this congress?

Democrats must be down to 219 seats or so now

No. It will still be 220. It would be 221 if they win here.

And also, not to antagonize you, but I think your queen really messed up here by taking Delgado from the district. She couldn't have found a person of color anywhere else with less stakes occurring from their vacancy?

[Lief 🗽]

Let's hope the good people of the Hudson Valley sue this "polling" firm for defamation after tonight.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news we're winning

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Did they use a higher turnout model?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Did they use a higher turnout model?

Just copium.

[Holmes]

Good news we're winning

Tell ‘em, OC.

[Sestak]

Can we ban these people from the polling database already?

[GALeftist]

Me when I lie

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I mean they are just a bad pollster lol. Have they had any ridiculously dem friendly results ever because that would make sense. They just miss by a lot either way

[Upstater]

Data for Progress Comedy

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wow! Is this the worst poll of the year so far?

Anyway, going off my previous doomer post in this thread, I would like to apologize to Queen Kathy. You knew what you were doing, and I'm sorry I doubted you!

[Sir Mohamed]

Just a day old, already aged very poorly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's what I say about Traggy OH poll the polling industry still sux look how badly they predicted the MD D primary with FRANCHOT

Traggy is only Good Standard to some because they have Vance not Ryan leading and they have DeWine leading 52/37 and cut off Nan W 11% it's 52/48 with Nan W 11%

[wbrocks67]

It's hard to poll special elections so I can give them a break, but their GE polls have also been R-leaning this cycle for sure

[Tintrlvr]

It's hard to poll special elections so I can give them a break, but their GE polls have also been R-leaning this cycle for sure

We can't say that their polls are R-leaning until we actually have results to compare them to...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's hard to poll special elections so I can give them a break, but their GE polls have also been R-leaning this cycle for sure

We can't say that their polls are R-leaning until we actually have results to compare them to...

Lol we just had the results last night it was 51/48.8 Ryan

[wbrocks67]

It's hard to poll special elections so I can give them a break, but their GE polls have also been R-leaning this cycle for sure

We can't say that their polls are R-leaning until we actually have results to compare them to...

I mean in the sense that they are outliers. They had Walker +2 when nearly every other poll had Warnock with an edge, and their last GCB poll was like R+5 when most other outlets (aside from Traf and Rasmussen) weren't really saying that either

[Person Man]

A D internal was 10 points to the right of the actual result. Check that one off the bucket list.