NY-19 Special Election Data for Progress: Molinaro + 8

[2016]

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1562083045645197312

Molinaro leads 57-39 among Independents.

[wbrocks67]

Well that would certainly be a bad result for Dems IMO.

D4P has seemed to be a bit R-leaning in polling this cycle, so interested to see how this one turns out.

[Brittain33]

Oh well. So even if Pat overperforms polls like the Dem did in MN-1, he’s still in a deep hole and losing independents.

[Sir Mohamed]

R+1

Not sure it margin will be that large, but I fully expect Molinaro to pull it off.

[Duke of York]

Molinaro will win. At this point I just expect the Republican to win so im not disappointed.

[wbrocks67]

Oh well. So even if Pat overperforms polls like the Dem did in MN-1, he’s still in a deep hole and losing independents.

There weren't any polls of MN-01 or NE-01

[Brittain33]

Oh well. So even if Pat overperforms polls like the Dem did in MN-1, he’s still in a deep hole and losing independents.

There weren't any polls of MN-01 or NE-01

538 says there was 1 SUSA and 1 internal for MN-1. Perhaps I should have said “overperforms poll” 😀

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/minnesota/1/

[AncestralDemocrat.]

The true chaos is if Repubs overperform in NY-19 and underperform in NY-23.

[wbrocks67]

Oh well. So even if Pat overperforms polls like the Dem did in MN-1, he’s still in a deep hole and losing independents.

There weren't any polls of MN-01 or NE-01

538 says there was 1 SUSA and 1 internal for MN-1. Perhaps I should have said “overperforms poll” 😀

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/minnesota/1/

You are correct, my bad. Forgot about the SUSA one!

Funny enough, the average of those two was the exact result.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter they're gonna revote in November anyways

[Roll Roons]

Lean R.

[Devils30]

The portion over age 70 is 30%?! Even in 2018 the 65+ was only 26%.

Age 60+ is 55%

I like that they are publishing what they found instead of trying to herd.

[wbrocks67]

also is this district really 94% white?!

[Brittain33]

also is this district really 94% white?!

Not that extreme, but the diversity numbers are quite low.

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-19-ny#demographics

[wbrocks67]

also is this district really 94% white?!

Not that extreme, but the diversity numbers are quite low.

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-19-ny#demographics

Interesting, so the district is about 83% white. This poll is betting that there's going to be minimal non-white turnout. Should be interesting.

[Gracile]

also is this district really 94% white?!

Not that extreme, but the diversity numbers are quite low.

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-19-ny#demographics

Interesting, so the district is about 83% white. This poll is betting that there's going to be minimal non-white turnout. Should be interesting.

The estimated CVAP is a bit higher at 87% white. Combine that with differences in primary turnout by race and age (where these kinds of electorates skew older and whiter), and those numbers wouldn't be that off the mark.

[sting in the rafters]

District polls can be wacky especially special elections. That said, NY-19 is basically upscale NEPA w/more kayaking and less hiking so this is not helping the 2016 PTSD alarm going off in my head ref. Cartwright/Shapiro/Fetterman’s prospects in PA’s own bronzland this November.

[2016]

The true chaos is if Repubs overperform in NY-19 and underperform in NY-27.

I think you mean NY-23 not NY-27
I doubt it. Sempolinski is actually a pretty decent Candidate.

[Xing]

I’d be somewhat surprised if it were this lopsided, though I do expect Molinaro to win. A result like this would definitely be a good one for Republicans, though like any special election, it would only give us a small snapshot.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, that one is going to flip. Am I correct that this would be the first flip of any special election in this congress?

Democrats must be down to 219 seats or so now

[Boobs]

Yeah, that one is going to flip. Am I correct that this would be the first flip of any special election in this congress?

Democrats must be down to 219 seats or so now

TX-34

[Lief 🗽]

RIP, looks like the Red Wave is back on.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

RIP, looks like the Red Wave is back on.

It was never off. There many examples of referendums that pass in a particular state ad then the electorate overwhelmingly votes for candidates who take the opposite stance(MO right to work for instance)

[Brittain33]

RIP, looks like the Red Wave is back on.

It was never off. There many examples of referendums that pass in a particular state ad then the electorate overwhelmingly votes for candidates who take the opposite stance(MO right to work for instance)

NE-1 and MN-1 were neutral environment elections, not red wave results.

[President Johnson]

RIP, looks like the Red Wave is back on.

It was never off. There many examples of referendums that pass in a particular state ad then the electorate overwhelmingly votes for candidates who take the opposite stance(MO right to work for instance)

NE-1 and MN-1 were neutral environment elections, not red wave results.

Plus Washington state results. There was a good Politico article on that one.