NV-Suffolk: CCM +7
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  NV-Suffolk: CCM +7
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Author Topic: NV-Suffolk: CCM +7  (Read 1216 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: August 21, 2022, 02:08:23 PM »

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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2022, 02:18:34 PM »

Previous poll (in April) from them had Laxalt up 43-40
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2022, 02:24:18 PM »

Yikes that's a lot of undecideds.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2022, 02:25:02 PM »

Great poll 👍
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2022, 02:25:24 PM »

Anyone have a link to the actual poll? I have not been able to find one.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2022, 02:27:22 PM »


14% is kinda high.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2022, 02:30:07 PM »

CCM consistently stuck in the mid 40s.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2022, 02:30:24 PM »

Take the average of this and the Trafalgar poll and you get Masto by 2.5. Not that I’m predicting this, but it would be pretty funny if Masto won by 2.4% again.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2022, 02:46:05 PM »


47-48% will probably be enough. Third parties usually get some support in Nevada as does none of these candidates which is on the ballot.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2022, 02:47:03 PM »

Anyone have a link to the actual poll? I have not been able to find one.

https://www.scribd.com/document/587943724/RGJ-Suffolk-Poll-Cross-Tabs
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2022, 02:49:06 PM »

Looks like a trashy poll, too much undecideds and CCM is not going to win by 7
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2022, 02:49:32 PM »

Yeah yeah tell me when someone gets over 50 lol
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2022, 02:52:13 PM »

I am so glad she's ahead Rs act like since CCM was down in a Traggy poll it was a red wave, again, just like the Emerson oversampling too many Rs in Trump plus 15 OH poll that Traggy did the same in that NV

No, way Trump under indictment watch wins OH by 15
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2022, 02:55:39 PM »

With very likely voters CCM up 45-40.
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Sbane
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2022, 03:08:14 PM »


I have a feeling this race will go to the party that wins the GCB. Before June 24th, that would have been an easy call but not so anymore. Pure toss up in my opinion.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2022, 03:14:29 PM »


So very likely voters is essentially a strong LV screen and they still can only get 85% decided in that model? How is that even possible?

45% isn't great for Masto as an incumbent, but I could argue that Laxalt is a known state-wide candidate as well and 38% is pretty bad for him too. Either way, you'd rather be Masto here, and it's a pretty decent swing from their last poll so that's good for Masto.

But yeah, 15% undecided at this point is still pretty ridiculous.

And I don't imagine it's hard to see why Masto could be up decently *right now*. She and the Dems have spent much more on this race thus far than Laxalt/GOP has.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2022, 03:28:05 PM »

Favorabilities:
Catherine Cortez Masto: 46/39 (+7)
Adam Laxalt: 34/41 (-8)
Joe Biden: 41/53 (-12)
Donald Trump: 40/53 (-13)

Same dynamic we're seeing in other races. Dems are relatively popular while GOP candidates are already underwater. Again, could also be that Masto has been able to define Laxalt more this Summer with more spending.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2022, 03:47:48 PM »

Gold NV standard Suffolk!

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2016
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2022, 04:00:56 PM »

LOL, now we talk about 2016 again.

It's not comparable. We had a Pandemic, the Nevada Economy is still in the dumpster and Suffolk, this snark Pollster has CCM up 7. Not happening.

Trafalgar nailed the VA & NJ Governor Races last year and unless they are waaay off I trust them more than Suffolk.

Suffolk was the Pollster who said Romney would win FL & VA in a walk. Suffolk is generally a bad Pollster. The only States where they a good are MA and NH. Why not stick to those two States and stop making a fool out of yourself.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2022, 04:07:02 PM »

LOL, now we talk about 2016 again.

It's not comparable. We had a Pandemic, the Nevada Economy is still in the dumpster and Suffolk, this snark Pollster has CCM up 7. Not happening.

Trafalgar nailed the VA & NJ Governor Races last year and unless they are waaay off I trust them more than Suffolk.

Suffolk was the Pollster who said Romney would win FL & VA in a walk. Suffolk is generally a bad Pollster. The only States where they a good are MA and NH. Why not stick to those two States and stop making a fool out of yourself.

Since when is Suffolk a "snark pollster"? Gurl you need to get some fresh air!
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2022, 05:02:04 PM »

LOL, now we talk about 2016 again.

It's not comparable. We had a Pandemic, the Nevada Economy is still in the dumpster and Suffolk, this snark Pollster has CCM up 7. Not happening.

Trafalgar nailed the VA & NJ Governor Races last year and unless they are waaay off I trust them more than Suffolk.

Suffolk was the Pollster who said Romney would win FL & VA in a walk. Suffolk is generally a bad Pollster. The only States where they a good are MA and NH. Why not stick to those two States and stop making a fool out of yourself.

This you?

Another day, another pretty great polling company makes a useless D primary poll that doesnt actually tell us who is supporting who. The Trump approval is the only real thing of note, and its....yikes.

Suffolk ain't a useless Polling Company. You're making the same mistakes you did with NBC/Marist in 2018. According to you every Pollsters that doesn't fit your narrative is bad. How sad!
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2022, 06:05:37 PM »

Remember that in NV you can vote for “None of These”.  So undecideds might just stay undecided. 

CCM won the seat in 2016 with just 47% of the vote.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2022, 06:06:13 PM »

I would love to see this poll end up being predictive of the final margin but there are way too many undecideds for me to think this poll is helpful at all.

Nevada remains a very big question mark in this year's races to me. I guess it improves the averages though after that Trafalgar poll, which I hope is as inaccurate as is being suggested.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2022, 10:38:13 AM »

Obviously the dissimilar margins are eye-catching, but "CCM" was at 44% in the Trafalgar poll and she’s at 45% here — this is most certainly not a good range to be polling in as an incumbent Democrat in Nevada in a year like this, and it’s also what distinguishes "CCM" from Kelly/Warnock/Fetterman.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2022, 10:41:05 AM »

Obviously the dissimilar margins are eye-catching, but "CCM" was at 44% in the Trafalgar poll and she’s at 45% here — this is most certainly not a good range to be polling in as an incumbent Democrat in Nevada in a year like this, and it’s also what distinguishes "CCM" from Kelly/Warnock/Fetterman.

Partially true, but CCM is in a situation where she doesn't need 50 to win like the others do. She could very well win with 47 again.
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