NV-Trafalgar Laxalt+2

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1560743811877330946?cxt=HHwWhICzxcmO8Kgr...

I'm glad we finally got a poll from Nevada which is the most underdiscussed battleground Senate race of the cycle.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Democrats are not concerned enough about this state. Laxalt, despite holding dangerous views on election nullification, is viewed as a "normal" Republican by many people because of his prior service as the state's AG. I'm more worried about losing Nevada than I am Arizona or even Georgia.

[Matty]

Jon Ralston is on Twitter saying the details of the poll seem sound.

If so, not great news for masto that she’s at 43 as an incumbent

[Lief 🗽]

R+1

[Progressive Pessimist]

F***!


This state remains the one that I am the most unsure about with most of its statewide elections, but this is not encouraging.

[Minnesota Mike]

Good to see a Nevada poll even if it is Trafalgar. MOE poll is about right but my gut tells me it leans a little Democratic. Throw it in the pile.

FYI Trafalgar had Trump winning Nevada in 2020 and Laxalt and Heller winning in 2018. They have not been terrible but they do tend to miss to the right.

[Minnesota Mike]

F***!


This state remains the one that I am the most unsure about with most of its statewide elections, but this is not encouraging.

Relax, it's one poll in the MOE.

[Progressive Pessimist]

F***!


This state remains the one that I am the most unsure about with most of its statewide elections, but this is not encouraging.

Relax, it's one poll in the MOE.

Right, but it's Trafalgar. I am taking them as the gold standard still until I am proven otherwise. You're right that they have missed before, particularly in 2018, but it's better to take this as the gospel and hope the Democratic candidates see it and tweak their campaigns appropriately to do try and do better. It's still early, they can learn from this, but I really don't want to disregard it.

[Alben Barkley]

Good to see a Nevada poll even if it is Trafalgar. MOE poll is about right but my gut tells me it leans a little Democratic. Throw it in the pile.

FYI Trafalgar had Trump winning Nevada in 2020 and Laxalt and Heller winning in 2018. They have not been terrible but they do tend to miss to the right.

They also are generally better in the rust belt than the sun belt.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R. If Cortez Masto is trailing, that probably augurs poorly for Kelly and Warnock too. Not a good poll no matter how you slice it.

[wbrocks67]

Tilt R. If Cortez Masto is trailing, that probably augurs poorly for Kelly and Warnock too. Not a good poll no matter how you slice it.

NV is not the same type of state as AZ or GA, especially given the bigger suburban populations there.

[UncleSam]

F***!


This state remains the one that I am the most unsure about with most of its statewide elections, but this is not encouraging.

Relax, it's one poll in the MOE.

Right, but it's Trafalgar. I am taking them as the gold standard still until I am proven otherwise. You're right that they have missed before, particularly in 2018, but it's better to take this as the gospel and hope the Democratic candidates see it and tweak their campaigns appropriately to do try and do better. It's still early, they can learn from this, but I really don't want to disregard it.

Others have mentioned it but they’re great in the Rust Belt, not so much in other places. Dems have consistently over performed their Nevada polling and I don’t see a reason why 2022 will be any different.

[Progressive Pessimist]

F***!


This state remains the one that I am the most unsure about with most of its statewide elections, but this is not encouraging.

Relax, it's one poll in the MOE.

Right, but it's Trafalgar. I am taking them as the gold standard still until I am proven otherwise. You're right that they have missed before, particularly in 2018, but it's better to take this as the gospel and hope the Democratic candidates see it and tweak their campaigns appropriately to do try and do better. It's still early, they can learn from this, but I really don't want to disregard it.

Others have mentioned it but they’re great in the Rust Belt, not so much in other places. Dems have consistently over performed their Nevada polling and I don’t see a reason why 2022 will be any different.

I hope you're all right.

[wbrocks67]

I'd like to see more polling of this race given Trafalgar's issues in the sunbelt in the past and the fact that NV results tend to underestimate Dems.

Looks like the next USA Today/Suffolk poll may be NV, so that should be instructive.

Dems are spending way more $$ than Rs right now so Masto *should* be up right now.

[Gass3268]

Trafalgar sucks in Nevada.

Trafalgar in 2018:
Senate: 49-46 Heller
Governor: 47-45 Laxalt

Plus they had Trump winning in 2020.

[GALeftist]

2 point Traf lead is hardly deserving of a ratings change lmao. Keeping this at Tilt R.

[Xing]

Obligatory reminder that Trafalgar is much better in the Midwest than in Nevada, where it’s consistently found better numbers for Republicans than the actual result. Sure, that could change this time, but even if this poll is accurate, it’s hardly worse than most here expect for this race. Toss-Up remains a Toss-Up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wasn't aware that pollsters had successfully solved their issues with reaching Spanish speakers.

[Senator Incitatus]

Slightly underwhelming for Laxalt. Still think it's the most likely Republican flip, possibly more likely than Pennsylvania.

[It’s so Joever]

This seems like the likely result, Laxalt+2 is reasonable.

[Matty]

Slightly underwhelming for Laxalt. Still think it's the most likely Republican flip, possibly more likely than Pennsylvania.

The problem for dems in nevada is that there are no whites with a college degree there

Nevada has 2 big voter groups

Trailer trash whites

Mexicans in the casino culinary unions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need someone else to poll NV

[Roll Roons]

CCM isn't out of it by any means, but this is clearly the most vulnerable Dem-held seat. Laxalt is considerably more likely to win than Oz.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the only poll that shows Rs in the lead along with the OH poll D's can still win the 303 map without NV but it's hard to see D's winning in AZ and losing NV that won't happen

It's within the MO E too but Rs want to talk about inflation it's because too wages went up in Europe they pay a lot more and inflation is a lot higher Singapore it 10.00 for gas and Japan

All the other swing states like PA and MI shows D's lead 6/9 pts way outside the MOE I am not gonna flip NV R if it's within MOE that's silly

[windjammer]

Am I the only one old enough remembering how NV polls constantly favour republicans ?