Grade 2020 Senate campaigns

[Tekken_Guy]

Grade these 2020 Senate campaigns:

Democrats
-Doug Jones
-Al Gross
-Mark Kelly
-John Hickenlooper
-Jon Ossoff
-Raphael Warnock
-Theresa Greenfield
-Barbara Bollier
-Amy McGrath
-Sara Gideon
-Gary Peters
-Tina Smith
-Mike Espy
-Steve Bullock
-Jeanne Shaheen
-Ben Ray Lujan
-Cal Cunningham
-Jaime Harrison
-MJ Hegar

Republicans
-Tommy Tuberville
-Dan Sullivan
-Martha McSally
-Cory Gardner
-David Perdue
-Kelly Loeffler
-Joni Ernst
-Roger Marshall
-Mitch McConnell
-Susan Collins
-John James
-Jason Lewis
-Cindy Hyde-Smith
-Steve Daines
-Corky Messner
-Mark Ronchetti
-Thom Tillis
-Lindsey Graham
-John Cornyn

[Zenobiyl]

Grade these 2020 Senate campaigns:

Democrats
-Doug Jones: A, did the best he could with an un-winnable race, and outperformed Biden a fair bit.
-Al Gross: B, did pretty mediocre despite trying to run as a centrist independent.
-Mark Kelly: B+, ran a solid campaign with huge fundraising and outperformed the national ticket in a swing state.
-John Hickenlooper: B, Excellent candidate, ran a good but unremarkable campaign.
-Jon Ossoff: A, fundraising guru with smart messaging.
-Raphael Warnock: A, same as Ossoff.
-Theresa Greenfield: C, did worse than expected and didn't do all that well for the money.
-Barbara Bollier: D, Kansas may be Kansas, but getting dumpstered despite running as a de-facto moderate R isn't a good look.
-Amy McGrath: F, failed to make any headway with boatloads of money.
-Sara Gideon: D, had a tough opponent but still blew the race with a bad campaign
-Gary Peters: B-, Struggled to keep up with James' fundraising, but still did respectably
-Tina Smith: C+, Didn't do all that great, but partly due to 3rd party nonsense.
-Mike Espy: A+, ran a local and well-fundraised race that substantially overperformed in a typically hopeless state.
-Steve Bullock: A, ran the perfect campaign for Montana, just against an opponent too strong to fall to it.
-Jeanne Shaheen: A, holy overperformance
-Ben Ray Lujan: C-, did fairly bad for a blue state senator.
-Cal Cunningham: D-, you know why.
-Jaime Harrison: C-, raised absurd amounts while not doing all that well compared to the mean.
-MJ Hegar: C, utterly unremarkable.

Republicans
-Tommy Tuberville: C, generic R candidate who won on polarization.
-Dan Sullivan: B, decent draft who overperformed.
-Martha McSally: D+, they should've learned their lesson after the first time.
-Cory Gardner: B+, did the best he could with a hopeless race.
-David Perdue: C+, a decent fit for trying to hold Georgia, but the stock trading didn't help.
-Kelly Loeffler: C, weaker than Perdue.
-Joni Ernst: B-, did pretty alright.
-Roger Marshall: A, crushed an on-paper solid opponent.
-Mitch McConnell: B, crushed a massively funded opponent, though only due to her unseriousness and the state's lean.
-Susan Collins: A+, drastically overperformed and carried a very tough seat comfortably.
-John James: A, overperformed and raised lots.
-Jason Lewis: B+, slight overperformer
-Cindy Hyde-Smith: C-, some light gaffes, and did weak against Espy
-Steve Daines A+, ran against the perfect challenger and easily dispatched him.
-Corky Messner: D, whatever he did, he did it badly.
-Mark Ronchetti: A+, overperformed despite being given less money or attention.
-Thom Tillis: C, decent fit for the state, but still didn't do all that well for a scandal-ridden opponent.
-Lindsey Graham: C, did pretty average.
-John Cornyn: B, bagged a strong win even as Trump slipped in the state

[Хahar 🤔]

-David Perdue: C+, a decent fit for trying to hold Georgia, but the stock trading didn't help.
-Kelly Loeffler: C, weaker than Perdue.

I'm not going to rate them all because I honestly don't know enough, but I want to again say something which I've been saying for a while now, which is that I don't understand by what metric Perdue could be said to have run a stronger campaign than Loeffler. Perdue had a prominent name in Georgia politics and we kept hearing about his supposed appeal to rural black voters in the southwest of the state. There was constant chatter on this site about the Perdue/Warnock voters that we would supposedly see. Perdue was an incumbent, which meant that it should have been easier for him than it was for Loeffler.

What actually happened was that Perdue received 49.39% and Loeffler received 48.96%. All of the advantages that Perdue supposedly had amounted to practically nothing. Either Perdue ran such a bad campaign that he squandered those advantages or Loeffler ran such a good campaign that she was functionally an incumbent. In either case, I don't understand how one could seriously argue that Perdue ran a meaningfully better campaign.

[Mr. Smith]

Grade these 2020 Senate campaigns

Democrats
-Doug Jones: A
-Al Gross: C+
-Mark Kelly: A
-John Hickenlooper: C
-Jon Ossoff: A
-Raphael Warnock: A+
-Theresa Greenfield: C
-Barbara Bollier: B
-Amy McGrath: D
-Sara Gideon: F
-Gary Peters: D+
-Tina Smith: C
-Mike Espy: A
-Steve Bullock: B+
-Jeanne Shaheen: A
-Ben Ray Lujan: D
-Cal Cunningham: F-
-Jaime Harrison: C
-MJ Hegar: C+

Republicans
-Tommy Tuberville: D
-Dan Sullivan: C
-Martha McSally: F
-Cory Gardner: F
-David Perdue: F
-Kelly Loeffler: F-
-Joni Ernst: B
-Roger Marshall: A+
-Mitch McConnell: A
-Susan Collins: B
-John James: C+
-Jason Lewis: B
-Cindy Hyde-Smith: D
-Steve Daines: A
-Corky Messner: D-
-Mark Ronchetti: A+
-Thom Tillis: C
-Lindsey Graham: D
-John Cornyn: C

[new_patomic]

If you're going by overperformance

New Hampshire D+8.30
Mississippi D+6.55
Kentucky D+6.39
Montana D+6.35
Alabama D+5.10
Kansas D+3.17
Arizona D+2.04
Georgia Special D+1.85
Iowa D+1.61
South Carolina D+1.41
Georgia Regular D+0.99
North Carolina R+0.41
Michigan R+1.10
Minnesota R+1.88
Alaska R+2.65
Colorado R+4.18
New Mexico R+4.68
Texas R+5.07
Maine R+17.65

If there's a standout here it's Sara Gideon sh**tting the bed and Susan Collins running a masterful race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If you're going by overperformance

New Hampshire D+8.30
Mississippi D+6.55
Kentucky D+6.39
Montana D+6.35
Alabama D+5.10
Kansas D+3.17
Arizona D+2.04
Georgia Special D+1.85
Iowa D+1.61
South Carolina D+1.41
Georgia Regular D+0.99
North Carolina R+0.41
Michigan R+1.10
Minnesota R+1.88
Alaska R+2.65
Colorado R+4.18
New Mexico R+4.68
Texas R+5.07
Maine R+17.65

If there's a standout here it's Sara Gideon sh**tting the bed and Susan Collins running a masterful race.

Once you factor in RCV, Collins over performance was likely close to 12 points which is still impressive, but def less so. Sara Gideon’s campaign didn’t seem particularly bad, I think people underestimated how in some of these New England states all politics really is local and the power of incumbency can go a long way. Notice at the other end how much Shaheen over performanced despite not even being much of a pariah in the Dem party and branding herself with Biden. Collins was very good about sticking with local issues in her campaign.