NC (Cygnal) race tied at 42

[Devils30]

Well, 42-42 certainly isn't helpful but this being an R internal showing a tied race to me shows that the other polls showing a close race as well aren't likely wrong.

update - this exact pollster and same sponsor also had this race Budd +5 (45-40) in June pre-Dobbs too

https://www.johnlocke.org/polls/three-fourths-of-north-carolinians-say-were-in-a-recession/

The funny thing is the Dems have a fairly clear roadmap if they are to erase Trump's 1.35% win. On election shuffler, you can just shift the major counties (Watuga, Buncombe, Mecklenberg, Cabarras, Wake, Durham, New Hanover) about 3% D and a handful of majority black counties 1% D and that erases the deficit. Not saying it will happen but if white college is a larger % of the 2022 electorate and Beasley improves a tad with rural blacks you can see the path.