Marquette - WI Gov - Evers +2

[Hollywood]

Marquette has an anti-Trump bias, and they talked about their difficulty locating Trump Voters in 2016 and 2020.  They're using a 2016/2018 model that under-estimates Republicans by 5 points.  After leaners, it comes out to Republicans with 45 and Democrats 44 (+1%), which adds up to all the people certain or likely to vote.  The Republicans lose votes in the Senate matchup, and the remaining people vote for a guy they heard about, Mandela, while Evers, a guy they've heard about, is stagnant. 

Then you have the policy questions that were either read out of order, or completely missing from the survey. So 380 participants are absent from policy questions like inflation, and there is no breakdown indicating important issues. They merely ask whether the participant is concerned about inflation, abortion or crime, which are all things almost everyone is concerned about.  In contrast, they managed to ask everyone about January 6th, and pretty much every issue Democrats want stressed to voters.   

I think that Emerson Poll of Ohio is real barometer of Republican strength in the Midwest.  The group most likely to vote is rural voters, because they are struggling with inflation, in addition to an issue that has been less probed than Monkey Pox, drug abuse and overdoses. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kleefisch isn't on the ballot and if Barnes wins so will Evers we solidify the 303 blue wall anyways and the rest is wave insurance we are leading in CO, AZ, NV, MI, PA and WI and that soldified the 270 blue wall

[Skill and Chance]

Given that this is an incumbent vs. little known outsider race now, this implies that 45% is roughly the final vote share Evers would get.  Actually quite a bad poll for him.  The only wrinkle is the independent.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

If the shoe fits...