Marquette - WI Gov - Evers +2

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559953375147528194?t=XDHFNXpvAHZkQTR1XJQxR...

[wbrocks67]

The last poll was Evers 48, Michels 41, I wonder if Beglinger was even mentioned in the last one? Her getting 7% here is just...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Beglinger more of a left-leaning or right-leaning independent?

[SnowLabrador]

Not a good sign for Evers. Of course, he was never going to win by 7 points, the conservatives hadn't consolidated yet. Hopefully most of the undecideds go for Evers, since the Senate poll has Barnes +7.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, seems like the option for a 3rd party in this poll compared to June dampened Evers' lead a bit.

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559953906813247491

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Is Beglinger more of a left-leaning or right-leaning independent?

Right leaning seemingly.

https://www.beglingerforgovernor.com/blank-1
https://www.beglingerforgovernor.com/dishonestmedia

[wbrocks67]

Evers and Michels both underperforming Barnes/Johnson, thanks to Beglinger

Evers - 91% Dem support compared to Barnes 95%
Michels - 89% GOP support compared to Johnsons 92%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We dodged Kleefisch that's the important thing what would polls be like if she won

[wbrocks67]

Democrats actually benefiting from the LV model here-

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559956209830166535

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Democrats actually benefiting from the LV model here-

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559956209830166535

The LV (I.e very likely or certain) model still has Evers +2 in that tweet.

[Gass3268]

Pretty sure once we've gotten through the campaign season Beglinger will end up taking more from Michels than Evers. I mean just look at her platform. DGA should totally run ads for her. That's not to say Michaels can't win.

[2016]

LOL, the 3rd Party Candidate will not get 7 % of the Vote.

[Lief 🗽]

A +2 Dem lead in Wisconsin in August means a Republican victory. Another state whose electoral votes in 2024 may already be decided this November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats actually benefiting from the LV model here-

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559956209830166535

The LV (I.e very likely or certain) model still has Evers +2 in that tweet.

"Certain" is at Evers+4, though.  I think his point is that Evers does best in the strictest possible screen.

[President Johnson]

Seems like this remains to tossup, despite a terrible Republican candidate. 45% is definitely not where you want to be as incumbent in such a poll.

[MT Treasurer]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

[2016]

Democrats actually benefiting from the LV model here-

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559956209830166535

The LV (I.e very likely or certain) model still has Evers +2 in that tweet.

"Certain" is at Evers+4, though.  I think his point is that Evers does best in the strictest possible screen.

Registered or Likely the KEY is Evers is under 50 %. That is a Problem for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

Biden Inflation Reduction Act is supported by 53:percent and Kleefisch is not on the ballot D's celebrated that Kleefisch, Schultz and Sullivan weren't on the Ballot the Rs voted against Inflation Reduction Act

It's a 303 FREIWAL MAP LIKE YOU ALWAYS SAY 272 FREIWAL YOU COIN THE PHASE NOT OTHER USERS IT WAS ADOPT ON ATLAS, D's are legislating too they're not just passing zilch

MT TREASURE COINED THE PHASE 272 FREIWAL AND WI IS PART OF 272  OR  303 FREIWAL

[wbrocks67]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

IDK, the base appears to be more fine with saying they're voting for Mastriano than say, Oz, though, so I'm not sure if many supporters are that worried about it. Not just that, but Johnson is still getting 90% of the base. He's hemorrhaging Independent support strongly, and Barnes is >50% with that group already.

[wbrocks67]

Better signs for Evers, makes me think that the Indie grabbing 7% is skewing this a bit. Michels already starting out with mediocre #s

Evers also at 46/41 fav, while Michels is 33/33

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1559957084300607488

[Xing]

Very weird that Evers is underperforming Barnes, and I doubt that ends up being the case (or if it does, it’ll be by a much smaller margin), though one explanation could be that voters aren’t as opinionated about Michels as they are about Johnson. Not ready to buy these races going Democratic yet, but if Johnson can’t increase his favorability rating like he did in 2016 (which later polls did pick up and it was a huge factor in his late surge), Republicans should not be overconfident here. I’d still call the Senate race Lean R (though if the environment really has improved for Democrats, closer to Tilt than Likely) while the gubernatorial race is Tilt R, but Republicans should learn from the Democratic overconfidence here from 2016 and not make the same mistake. The trendline between this poll and later ones will also be something to watch.

[Pollster]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

I don't disagree with you that this poll is flawed, but technically more people in this sample say they are voting for Johnson (44%) than Michels (43%) so not sure this reasoning holds up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very weird that Evers is underperforming Barnes, and I doubt that ends up being the case (or if it does, it’ll be by a much smaller margin), though one explanation could be that voters aren’t as opinionated about Michels as they are about Johnson. Not ready to buy these races going Democratic yet, but if Johnson can’t increase his favorability rating like he did in 2016 (which later polls did pick up and it was a huge factor in his late surge), Republicans should not be overconfident here. I’d still call the Senate race Lean R (though if the environment really has improved for Democrats, closer to Tilt than Likely) while the gubernatorial race is Tilt R, but Republicans should learn from the Democratic overconfidence here from 2016 and not make the same mistake. The trendline between this poll and later ones will also be something to watch.

Maybe due to fact Barnes is youthful and Evers abd Ron Johnson are losing because they are both elderly, if you are gonna convince MT Treasure or 2016:that Ron Johnson is not gonna win it's not gonna happen the Rs are convinced that Johnson is untouchable just like they think Vance is untouchable and he is losing

Barnes is just as Liberal on social issues as R Warnock

These same Rs said that Warnock before GA is was Likely R before we the Runoff because they wanted an R Senate not D SENATE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

I don't disagree with you that this poll is flawed, but technically more people in this sample say they are voting for Johnson (44%) than Michels (43%) so not sure this reasoning holds up.

MT Treasure said Perdue was gonna beat Warnock too last yr and now he says Barnes is gonna lose to Johnson

[Pollster]

Still expecting Barnes to do worse than Evers, of course. It should be worth noting that there’s probably a lot less "social desirability bias" (don’t like using that term, but you get my drift) with Michels than with Johnson, given that the latter has basically been subjected to a years-long media campaign portraying and even outright labeling him an insurrectionist, conspiracy theorist, fascist, and traitor, while the former is a relatively uncontroversial and unthreatening political neophyte. It is easy to see why someone might feel pressured to affirm their opposition to Johnson but not necessarily to Michels. I’m not saying I know what’s going on here or that that’s definitely the main reason for this discrepancy, so please don’t put words in my mouth, but I find it hard to believe that that doesn’t contribute to the weak showing of people like Johnson or Mastriano in polling. "Conspiracy theorist" in particular is a label which carries even greater stigma than, say, "racist."

I don't disagree with you that this poll is flawed, but technically more people in this sample say they are voting for Johnson (44%) than Michels (43%) so not sure this reasoning holds up.

MT Treasure said Perdue was gonna beat Warnock too last yr and now he says Barnes is gonna lose to Johnson

Never change