FL-UNFL: Demings + 4

[wbrocks67]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Yep. It seems odd to me that people assume Rubio is some titanium strong candidate or something, just because of a performance 6 years ago.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Rubio wins with double digits, period.

And don't be surprised if the midterms is a disappointment, if we're gonna be flooded by these kind of trash tier polls.

if trafalgar out of all polls has one of the best percentages, you know how bad it is.

I'm sure we can beat the polls by just inventing realistic scenario's to happen in the midterms. Just apply a uniform but large R shift in states of Ohio and Florida comparing with the polls, and you'll beat the polls.

[Spectator]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Yep. It seems odd to me that people assume Rubio is some titanium strong candidate or something, just because of a performance 6 years ago.

You are misreading it. People don’t think Rubio is particularly strong (or they shouldn’t, lest they be pointed to the GOP primary in 2016). It’s that Florida is very obviously a heavily Republican state.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Remember, Bill Nelson was an incumbent who lost in a blue wave year. I don't see how Rubio a R incumbent would suddenly lose in what many pundits expect to be a R wave year or at the very least a neutral year or wash.

There were many pollsters that showed Clinton, Biden, Gillum, Nelson all winning, and none of them did.

[Sir Mohamed]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Well, Rubio won by 8 pts. in 2016 against an opponent who was pretty moderate and considered very "electable". Trump just barely won on the same ballot. And 2016 was still kind of a neutral year overall while 2022 may not be (too early to tell). The GOP also seems to have a better ground game in FL today compared to 6 years ago and generally seems to move right. Consequently, I'm not buying this will be a competitive race. Demings would be lucky to lose by 5-6 pts. My guess is Rubio by 8-9 pts while DeSantis wins by 9-11 pts.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Well, Rubio won by 8 pts. in 2016 against an opponent who was pretty moderate and considered very "electable". Trump just barely won on the same ballot. And 2016 was still kind of a neutral year overall while 2022 may not be (too early to tell). The GOP also seems to have a better ground game in FL today compared to 6 years ago and generally seems to move right. Consequently, I'm not buying this will be a competitive race. Demings would be lucky to lose by 5-6 pts. My guess is Rubio by 8-9 pts while DeSantis wins by 9-11 pts.

That seems indeed very reasonable, but i'm not sure why we're getting flooded lately with polls like these, and it undermines credibility of a lot of other polls as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Well, Rubio won by 8 pts. in 2016 against an opponent who was pretty moderate and considered very "electable". Trump just barely won on the same ballot. And 2016 was still kind of a neutral year overall while 2022 may not be (too early to tell). The GOP also seems to have a better ground game in FL today compared to 6 years ago and generally seems to move right. Consequently, I'm not buying this will be a competitive race. Demings would be lucky to lose by 5-6 pts. My guess is Rubio by 8-9 pts while DeSantis wins by 9-11 pts.

Rubio tan in 2016 with BENGHAZI Hillary that's why Portman won by 20 stop comparing 2016/22 Biden isn't Hillary . That's why Vance in underperform because Biden is in the WH not HILLARY

We nominated McGinty instead of Sestak and lost PA and RoJo in WI didn't win but by 3 pts

[Sir Mohamed]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Well, Rubio won by 8 pts. in 2016 against an opponent who was pretty moderate and considered very "electable". Trump just barely won on the same ballot. And 2016 was still kind of a neutral year overall while 2022 may not be (too early to tell). The GOP also seems to have a better ground game in FL today compared to 6 years ago and generally seems to move right. Consequently, I'm not buying this will be a competitive race. Demings would be lucky to lose by 5-6 pts. My guess is Rubio by 8-9 pts while DeSantis wins by 9-11 pts.

Rubio tan in 2016 with BENGHAZI Hillary that's why Portman won by 20 stop comparing 2016/22 Biden isn't Hillary

We nominated McGinty instead of Sestak and lost PA and RoJo in WI didn't win but by 3 pts

HRC did a lot better than Rubio's opponent in 2016. The senate election had nothing to do with the Benghazi stuff.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

And this is exactly why I keep my hopes for November down, despite the polling picture showing Dems overall in a solid place, given the fundamentals.

DeSantis up by 7-8 pts. - which seems legit - and Rubio down by 4 pts. in the very same survey? Seriously, who's gonna believe that? Lots of polling has become a joke.

Likely/Safe R.

Mass ticket splitting between a culture warrior governor known for his trumpist conservatism and a center left democrat does seem particularly unrealistic in this era of polarization..

Just a hunch.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close

Well, Rubio won by 8 pts. in 2016 against an opponent who was pretty moderate and considered very "electable". Trump just barely won on the same ballot. And 2016 was still kind of a neutral year overall while 2022 may not be (too early to tell). The GOP also seems to have a better ground game in FL today compared to 6 years ago and generally seems to move right. Consequently, I'm not buying this will be a competitive race. Demings would be lucky to lose by 5-6 pts. My guess is Rubio by 8-9 pts while DeSantis wins by 9-11 pts.

Rubio tan in 2016 with BENGHAZI Hillary that's why Portman won by 20 stop comparing 2016/22 Biden isn't Hillary

We nominated McGinty instead of Sestak and lost PA and RoJo in WI didn't win but by 3 pts

HRC did a lot better than Rubio's opponent in 2016. The senate election had nothing to do with the Benghazi stuff.

Ron Johnson ran on Benghazi Hillary you are wrong and Ron Johnson promises to prosecute Hunter Biden if Rs get the S and H majority

[Brittain33]

Didn’t Murphy have a campaign finance scandal in 2016 or some other reason he never took off as a candidate? In retrospect, it was probably a sign of the macro environment.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/aaronstrauss/status/1559541132350164995?t=UZQUx6Rg--_qCFb4FV...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/aaronstrauss/status/1559541132350164995?t=UZQUx6Rg--_qCFb4FV...

Okay... but then the pollster weighted it by education, so. I get that the point is that it's harder to find non-college educated to poll, but the pollster still accounted for it and weighted it properly

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/aaronstrauss/status/1559541132350164995?t=UZQUx6Rg--_qCFb4FV...

Okay... but then the pollster weighted it by education, so. I get that the point is that it's harder to find non-college educated to poll, but the pollster still accounted for it and weighted it properly

It's also a Trump +4 recalled vote.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/aaronstrauss/status/1559541132350164995?t=UZQUx6Rg--_qCFb4FV...

Okay... but then the pollster weighted it by education, so. I get that the point is that it's harder to find non-college educated to poll, but the pollster still accounted for it and weighted it properly

Obviously there's a substantial opening for error when you have to weight such a skewed sample.. pollsters can only do so much.

[TodayJunior]

This was skill on Deming's part foreseeing Rubio as the weaker of the two between him and DeSantis. Although, I still think she comes up short in November.

[Holmes]

Well, it's not the first time we see a large discrepancy between the governor and senate races in the same poll. Selzer had a big discrepancy between Reynolds' margin and Grassley's a while back. Maybe that was a sign. Maybe 2016 isn't too far off and voters are fine with keeping their governors but seem to be open to throwing out their (Republican?) senators? Although all the seats that Democrats look strong in so far are open seats, so who knows?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden underperform in Miami he only won Miami by 10 pts that's why we are doing better in FL and there wasn't a Sen race in OH or FL in 2020, Biden also lost Mahoney Cty to Trump, Ryan is gonna win Mahoney Cty he is from Youngstown

So, users say OH, NC and FL are Lean R NO, D's underpolled in 2020 Biden lost Mahoney Cty to Trump and undervoted in Miami Crist and Demings are gonna win Miami by 25 pts not 10 like Biden did

This is the same FL that elected Bill Nelson the Astronaut  2007/2019 2T

Kay Hagen 2009/2015
Sherrod Brown 2007/present

Blue OH, NC and FL during Obama Biden yrs of 2006/2017 Biden is Prez now, some Rs think Biden wasn't even campaign for Obama Obama won red states all by himself, the way they're acting about monopoly over red states GA turned from red to blue Last time

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Rubio is going to win but he is running an horrible campaign

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio is going to win but he is running an horrible campaign

You don't know the maps are blank on EDay but we don't need FL it's wave insurance

Just like Milinneal Moderate said no way Ryan wins we will see on EDay the maps are blank no ratings on EDay it's called wave insurance

[President Johnson]

Lmao, I see, Florida polling continues to suck. DeSantis and Rubio over ten points apart? Yeah, right. Anyone who believes this also thought Biden was winning Wisconsin by 17 in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lmao, I see, Florida polling continues to suck. DeSantis and Rubio over ten points apart? Yeah, right. Anyone who believes this also thought Biden was winning Wisconsin by 17 in 2020.

Lol c'mon, we will all see on EDay

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lmao, I see, Florida polling continues to suck. DeSantis and Rubio over ten points apart? Yeah, right. Anyone who believes this also thought Biden was winning Wisconsin by 17 in 2020.

Do you know why Rs say FL, OH and NC are Lean R because they know they are the Favs in the H in 22 and if we get stuck with 51 or 52 seats not 55 then they can win back the Trifecta in 24 with OH, WVA and MT that's why they insist that OH, NC and FL are Lean R if we win 55 seats it's no way they can win back the Senate in 24

We need 55 seats not 50 or 52 the Senate map isn't fav for us in 24

[Senator Incitatus]

Well, it's not the first time we see a large discrepancy between the governor and senate races in the same poll. Selzer had a big discrepancy between Reynolds' margin and Grassley's a while back. Maybe that was a sign. Maybe 2016 isn't too far off and voters are fine with keeping their governors but seem to be open to throwing out their (Republican?) senators? Although all the seats that Democrats look strong in so far are open seats, so who knows?

Does not comport at all with the narrative here (which I reject) that the adjustment in expectations despite Biden's continued floundering is creditable to Dobbs. You would expect to see voters rejecting Republican governors and voting for a Republican Congress.

[wbrocks67]

Rubio is going to win but he is running an horrible campaign

Thank you. It's almost as if most people can't just admit this.