FL-UNFL: Demings + 4

[2016]

Congresswomen Val Demings (D) 48
Senator Marco Rubio (R, Incumbent) 44

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/547395-new-poll-says-nikki-fried-has-overtaken-charlie-crist-in-florida-democratic-primary/

https://de.scribd.com/document/587232872/UNF-PORL-August-Survey

This is what I told everybody a few weeks back. Governors are in a much, much better Position than Incumbent Senators regardless of Party.

It's an Anti-Washington Political Environment not an Anti-Incumbent Environment.

The same Poll has DeSantis outpolling Rubio by 6 Points. While DeSantis sits at 50 % in both Match Ups with Fried and Crist Rubio sits at 44 %.

Senator Marco Rubio has a 37 % JA
President Biden has a 38 % JA

[Spectator]

Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news Demings up 4 Safe D

[2016]

Safe R

I am not sure. There seems to be a sizable Anti-Washington Electorate out there. Voters are fed up with this Town called Washington D. C. no matter if you are a Republican, Democrat or Independent.

Congress has an almost 80 % Disapproval.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Yes, DeSantis is outrunning Rubio double digits in margin and we're about to see unheard of ticket splitting in Florida..

So true !

[2016]

Yes, DeSantis is outrunning Rubio double digits in margin and we're about to see unheard of ticket splitting in Florida..

So true !

It is possible that DeSantis wins and Rubio loses when you factor in that the U. S. Congress has an 80 % Disapproval Rate.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Yes, DeSantis is outrunning Rubio double digits in margin and we're about to see unheard of ticket splitting in Florida..

So true !

It is possible that DeSantis wins and Rubio loses when you factor in that the U. S. Congress has an 80 % Disapproval Rate.

That logic doesn't exactly make much sense given she's a congresswoman.. not exactly a political outsider.

Anyway, congressional approval  has been consistently horrendous for multiple cycles.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IIRC the University of North Florida has had some pretty strange poll results over the years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH, NC and FL are definitely wave insurance but we need more than 50 votes for 24 we are on defense in 24 OH, WVa and MNT and we can win the H back if we lose it in 24

That's why Brown is rooting for Tim Ryan so he doesn't lose in 24

[Unelectable Bystander]

They actually say in the article that they have a habit of showing Dem leads that never actually  happen (they blame it on margin of error but that sounds more like bias to me when it’s in the same direction every time), and that republicans will be a bigger vote share than they have here. Still, concerning that DeSantis outruns Rubio by so much, but at least everyone choosing “someone else” is mainly republicans and independents.

The best part of this poll is that 56% of everybody, 61% of independents, and 69% of Hispanics characterizes the mainstream media as fake news LOL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IIRC the University of North Florida has had some pretty strange poll results over the years.

FL is an anti income tax not anti SALES tax state Crist voted to raise taxes in Inflation Reduction Act and so did Demings but obviously it's not hurting Demings because Bill Nelson raised taxes too in 2012 and was reelected, was elected Sen during Jeb Bush because Seniors like SSA

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, I don't believe it. Rubio could win by a smaller margin than expected, but he's not losing.

[windjammer]

I didn't know that Trump has been reelected

[wbrocks67]

I mean, this is the 3rd straight poll with a close result. The same poll has DeSantis up 7/8 which is actually pretty damn believable, so the fact that Rubio is running so far behind here (as he's done in other polls) might actually be something.

I still believe that Demings is having a good shot here right now because Rubio is sleepwalking. Demings has raised a sh*t ton of money this summer and seems to be actively campaigning, running ads, etc. Rubio seems to be zombie-ing his way thru this at the moment.

[Spectator]

Yes, DeSantis is outrunning Rubio double digits in margin and we're about to see unheard of ticket splitting in Florida..

So true !

It is possible that DeSantis wins and Rubio loses when you factor in that the U. S. Congress has an 80 % Disapproval Rate.

When has Congress last NOT had an approval rating in the teens/20s lol

Rubio is winning, the less people get their hopes up otherwise, the easier it will feel when it’s called on election night.

[Mr.Phips]

Are Democrats really going to trust Florida polls again after being burned so many times?

[wbrocks67]

Are Democrats really going to trust Florida polls again after being burned so many times?

Eh, I mean if you look at 2020, the RCP average was off by 4. That's bad but not catastrophic, in the sense that Demings is averaging more than a tie over Rubio, and for her to even lose by just 4 in this environment would be horrific for him.

[wbrocks67]

Of note, this poll also has Rubio's approval at 37/52 (-15), which I believe is nearly identical to that last FL poll we saw.

I have no idea if it's actually true or not, but some people seem to be ignoring the real possibility that Rubio's favorability has really declined since 2016.

[Buzz]

You have to be a moron to think this is true

[wbrocks67]

You have to be a moron to think this is true

"result is not what i like, so it must be false and if you believe what i don't like, you must be a moron!"

Same poll has DeSantis up 7-8, Trump +4 recalled vote, and is even slightly less Hispanic than 2020, so idk what to tell you bub

[Spectator]

You have to be a moron to think this is true

"result is not what i like, so it must be false and if you believe what i don't like, you must be a moron!"

Same poll has DeSantis up 7-8, Trump +4 recalled vote, and is even slightly less Hispanic than 2020, so idk what to tell you bub

It’s safe R. Florida Dems would struggle to beat Roy Moore if he was the nominee.

[wbrocks67]

You have to be a moron to think this is true

"result is not what i like, so it must be false and if you believe what i don't like, you must be a moron!"

Same poll has DeSantis up 7-8, Trump +4 recalled vote, and is even slightly less Hispanic than 2020, so idk what to tell you bub

It’s safe R. Florida Dems would struggle to beat Roy Moore if he was the nominee.

[Sir Mohamed]

And this is exactly why I keep my hopes for November down, despite the polling picture showing Dems overall in a solid place, given the fundamentals.

DeSantis up by 7-8 pts. - which seems legit - and Rubio down by 4 pts. in the very same survey? Seriously, who's gonna believe that? Lots of polling has become a joke.

Likely/Safe R.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

You have to be a moron to think this is true

"result is not what i like, so it must be false and if you believe what i don't like, you must be a moron!"

Same poll has DeSantis up 7-8, Trump +4 recalled vote, and is even slightly less Hispanic than 2020, so idk what to tell you bub

Yes, you have to be a absolute moron to believe Florida polling.

[Gass3268]

All of these things can be true:
- Demings is a very strong nominee
- Rubio is not a good campaigner
- It's Florida, so he's still gonna win, but still it's Florida, so the margin will probably still be close