FL-UNFL Poll: DeSantis + 7 / + 8
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 07:20:50 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2022 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  FL-UNFL Poll: DeSantis + 7 / + 8
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL-UNFL Poll: DeSantis + 7 / + 8  (Read 708 times)
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 16, 2022, 06:15:51 AM »
« edited: August 16, 2022, 06:39:13 AM by 2016 »

Governor Ron DeSantis (R, Incumbent) 50
Ag Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) 43

Governor Ron DeSantis (R, Incumbent) 50
Congressman Charlie Crist (D) 42

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/547395-new-poll-says-nikki-fried-has-overtaken-charlie-crist-in-florida-democratic-primary/

https://de.scribd.com/document/587232872/UNF-PORL-August-Survey

DeSantis has a 50/45 Job Approval
President Biden has a 38/59 Job Approval
Logged
Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,382
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2022, 06:37:04 AM »

Both Senate and Governor are Safe R until Democrats actually win. We’ve seen this song and dance in Florida before every two years since 2014 cycle.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2022, 06:41:51 AM »

If Demings win she is ahead in the same poll I don't see DeSantis winning
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2022, 06:49:44 AM »

If Demings win she is ahead in the same poll I don't see DeSantis winning
Wrong. DeSantis will win. This has everything to do with Washington. Both, Rubio and Demings are Washington Insiders so it's a lesser of two evils for them.

DeSantis Job Approval sits at 50 % while Rubios & Bidens sits at 37 % and 38 % respectivly.

All the Republican Governors like DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott as well as Democratic Governors like Whitmer, Evers will win.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2022, 06:55:07 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2022, 06:58:20 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

We will see in November, it's wave insurance we don't need FL but Demings is ahead I am happy and put it on map unlike Progressive Moderate who has an R nut map that won't happen in a million yrs
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2022, 07:04:08 AM »

We will see in November, it's wave insurance we don't need FL but Demings is ahead I am happy and put it on map unlike Progressive Moderate who has an R nut map that won't happen in a million yrs
Any Governor who has a Job Approval of 50+ will win Re-Election.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,166


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2022, 07:54:54 AM »

DeSantis +7/8 seems like a very realistic result imo.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,673
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2022, 08:32:03 AM »

Crist is going to end his career with the biggest defeat of any FL-gov candidate since 2002. And this has been totally foreseeable. I dunno why he didn't stay in the House for at least another 1-2 terms. He may have had a shot in 2026 during an R-midterm.

Likely/Safe R.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2022, 08:54:09 AM »
« Edited: August 16, 2022, 08:57:15 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Crist is going to end his career with the biggest defeat of any FL-gov candidate since 2002. And this has been totally foreseeable. I dunno why he didn't stay in the House for at least another 1-2 terms. He may have had a shot in 2026 during an R-midterm.

Likely/Safe R.

so much for Rubio winning 54/44 Demings will win we're gonna have 55 seats your RoJo Rs cut spending in WI
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2022, 12:58:17 PM »

Time to pick this Poll a bit apart (No, I am not unscewing the Poll). I am just matching the Official Registration Numbers from the Florida Elections Divisions Website.

For the pupose of this Exercise I am using the Book Closing Numbers which you can find here:
https://files.floridados.gov/media/705811/1-by-party-by-county.pdf

Registration for the August 23rd Statewide Florida Primary Election closed on July 25th.

FLORIDA

Total Active Registered Voters Statewide: 14,315,755

Republican 5,191,018 = 36,26 %
Democrat 4,962,064 = 34,66 %
No Party Affiliation 3,905,562 = 27,28 %

R + 228,954

Poll Sample: R36/D35/29I

Looks like they nailed this one!
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,875
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2022, 01:10:15 PM »

Safe Republican, nothing to see here. As embarrassing as it is.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2022, 01:24:02 PM »

If they nailed it on the head Trump only won FL by 3 pts and Biden only won Miami by 10 pts Demings and Crist will win Miami by 25 pts not 10 that's how you get D's winning DeSantis isn't winning by 8 pts in an R plus 3 state
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,172
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2022, 01:34:07 PM »

Crist is going to end his career with the biggest defeat of any FL-gov candidate since 2002. And this has been totally foreseeable. I dunno why he didn't stay in the House for at least another 1-2 terms. He may have had a shot in 2026 during an R-midterm.

Likely/Safe R.

so much for Rubio winning 54/44 Demings will win we're gonna have 55 seats your RoJo Rs cut spending in WI

And what have we learnt from 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Apparently, literally nothing.

I'm waiting for you in 2024 to talk about how Biden will win Florida, especially if DeSantis is the nominee.

And if this is all supposedly "a meme persona" you are playing, than i would say that it isn't even fun. It's ridicilous. SNxxxx & SirWoodbury were even less of a hack back in the day than you are. In the meantime, the Republicans have won in Virginia, we still have to see a Democrat winning Florida for the first time in quite a long time (for governor, senate & president, at least since 2012).
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,875
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2022, 01:39:14 PM »

Crist is going to end his career with the biggest defeat of any FL-gov candidate since 2002. And this has been totally foreseeable. I dunno why he didn't stay in the House for at least another 1-2 terms. He may have had a shot in 2026 during an R-midterm.

Likely/Safe R.

so much for Rubio winning 54/44 Demings will win we're gonna have 55 seats your RoJo Rs cut spending in WI

And what have we learnt from 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Apparently, literally nothing.

I'm waiting for you in 2024 to talk about how Biden will win Florida, especially if DeSantis is the nominee.

And if this is all supposedly "a meme persona" you are playing, than i would say that it isn't even fun. It's ridicilous. SNxxxx & SirWoodbury were even less of a hack back in the day than you are.

Biden already won FL in 2oo8/12 with Obama and DeSantis will lose to Christ because the poll is almost within MoE and Demings is up 4. As a result, he wont be R nominee anyways and Trumo has insurrection behind him, consequently he'll lose to Prez Niden. R NUT maps , NOT
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,172
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2022, 01:45:19 PM »

Crist is going to end his career with the biggest defeat of any FL-gov candidate since 2002. And this has been totally foreseeable. I dunno why he didn't stay in the House for at least another 1-2 terms. He may have had a shot in 2026 during an R-midterm.

Likely/Safe R.

so much for Rubio winning 54/44 Demings will win we're gonna have 55 seats your RoJo Rs cut spending in WI

And what have we learnt from 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Apparently, literally nothing.

I'm waiting for you in 2024 to talk about how Biden will win Florida, especially if DeSantis is the nominee.

And if this is all supposedly "a meme persona" you are playing, than i would say that it isn't even fun. It's ridicilous. SNxxxx & SirWoodbury were even less of a hack back in the day than you are.

Biden already won FL in 2oo8/12 with Obama and DeSantis will lose to Christ because the poll is almost within MoE and Demings is up 4. As a result, he wont be R nominee anyways and Trumo has insurrection behind him, consequently he'll lose to Prez Niden. R NUT maps , NOT
You can definitely meme. But the difference is you pick your moments.

If one does it all the time, it becomes annoying instead of fun. In that case, it is rather spamming/trolling instead of being actually fun.
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2022, 03:04:56 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2022, 03:08:14 PM by 2016 »

If they nailed it on the head Trump only won FL by 3 pts and Biden only won Miami by 10 pts Demings and Crist will win Miami by 25 pts not 10 that's how you get D's winning DeSantis isn't winning by 8 pts in an R plus 3 state
LOL, I have to laugh you off here.
Crist will not win Miami-Dade County by 25 Points and neither will Demings.

Miami-Dade County Party Registration (Book Closing July 25)

Total Registered Voters Miami-Dade County: 1,508,821

Republicans  429,213 = 28,44 %
Democrats  576,212 = 38,18 %
No Party Affiliation  480,592 = 31,85 %

D Registration Edge in Miami-Dade 9,74 %

Olowakandi is living in a totally different Universe. He still thinks Miami-Dade County of 2022 is the same as Miami-Dade County of 2016 when Hillary Clinton won it 64-34.

This is the biggest County in Florida and it has changed quite dramatically over the last six years in favour of Republicans and 2022 is unlikely to change that trajectory.

Back in 2016 Democrats owned a 15 Percentage-Point Registration Advantage over Republicans in Miami-Dade. That has been cut to now less than 10 %.

From a Republican Perspective that's pretty amazing. DeSantis will almost certainly get 8 of 10 Cuban, Venezuelan, Nicaraguan or Colombian Hispanics.

Good Luck for Crist & Demings trying to sell their Socialist Policies particularly to those Hispanic Communities I mentioned. These people fled Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia and Nicaragua because of the Socialist Govtms over there. They are not going to vote Democrat.

Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 16, 2022, 04:09:51 PM »

2016 is having a fit because Demings and Ryan and Beasley are winning at the same time DeWine and DeSajtis are winning we will eventually win back OH, NC and FL, the Rs we're locked out OH, NC and FL during Obama yrs and Trump won them back these are purple states and one day Rs will win Wzi, PA and MI but Trump wont, it could be 2028 or 2032 but one day we will win red states and Rs will once again win blue states they're not permanent
Logged
Hollywood
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,724
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2022, 07:11:09 PM »

I, and many other DeSantis voters, might not like Marco Rubio, but we're all going to begrudgingly mark the box for him on election day.  I think Demmings has found success spewing BS ads all over the place with the PAC money coming her way, but Rubio has played this game many time, and I expect he will launch a very competent ad campaign to regain lost ground. 

Gun to my head... I think Rubio wins.  It's clear from the poll that Republicans are more motivated and enthusiastic about the election.  Rubio's numbers reming me of VA.  I also think this pollster tends to over-estimate Democrat candidates, particularly AA ones like Gillum in 2018.

The information within this poll that Democrats really need to take seriously is the ground they've lost in minority communities.  Trump and DeSantis, as well as the Republican outreach campaigns, have been extremely successful in Broward and Miami-Dade.  DeSantis is killing it with Hispanic Voters, and may reach 60%.  As opposed to Rubio's paltry 2% of AA votes, DeSantis actually gets 21%, and I believe Trump received 11% in 2020. 

This all makes sense to me.  I live in Broward.  It is the most D county.  Even the Black and Hispanic that don't like DeSantis have positive opinions of the man.  However, among the AA community, I've noticed these attitudes with males. 
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2022, 07:27:31 PM »

I, and many other DeSantis voters, might not like Marco Rubio, but we're all going to begrudgingly mark the box for him on election day.  I think Demmings has found success spewing BS ads all over the place with the PAC money coming her way, but Rubio has played this game many time, and I expect he will launch a very competent ad campaign to regain lost ground. 

Gun to my head... I think Rubio wins.  It's clear from the poll that Republicans are more motivated and enthusiastic about the election.  Rubio's numbers reming me of VA.  I also think this pollster tends to over-estimate Democrat candidates, particularly AA ones like Gillum in 2018.

The information within this poll that Democrats really need to take seriously is the ground they've lost in minority communities.  Trump and DeSantis, as well as the Republican outreach campaigns, have been extremely successful in Broward and Miami-Dade.  DeSantis is killing it with Hispanic Voters, and may reach 60%.  As opposed to Rubio's paltry 2% of AA votes, DeSantis actually gets 21%, and I believe Trump received 11% in 2020. 

This all makes sense to me.  I live in Broward.  It is the most D county.  Even the Black and Hispanic that don't like DeSantis have positive opinions of the man.  However, among the AA community, I've noticed these attitudes with males. 
I totally agree with you! Democrats like Olowakandi are living in a different world and still haven't realized how much the Hispanic Minorities in Southern Florida have moved away from them. And I still think that this will spill over into Texas and Nevada.

I cannot wait how both, Rep. Henry Cuellar & Rep. Vicente Gonzalez explain the Socialistic Inflation Reduction Act to their Communities. I'd say Good Luck explaining it because it will make the cost of living harder and the Act isn't curbing Inflation at all.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,649
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2022, 05:10:10 AM »
« Edited: August 18, 2022, 05:41:14 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

After the primary next week and we will see what happens in FL 13, next week, too, Crist will win by a landslide and won't be focused on Fried he will focus all his attention on DeSantis right now DeSantis has the Latino not Blk vote locked up but some of the Latinos outside of Cubans and White females can turn more to Fried or Crust that's why DEMINGS is leading in UNF FL isn't a R plus 8 state it's a R plus 3 state like Trump won it, if Rubio and DeSantis win they won't be winning by more than 3 pts
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 12 queries.