Why do you think the GCB is essentially tied (August 2022)?

[Orser67]

As of August 13th, 538 shows Democrats up by 0.3 points in their average of polls of the generic congressional ballot. Recent mid-terms have generally seen the president's party lose seats in Congress, and Biden's approval ratings are widely considered to be weak (per 538, he's at 40% approval, compared to a disapproval rating of 55%). Given that, how do you explain that the generic congressional ballot is roughly tied, and that many election forecasters think that Democrats have a real shot at retaining control of the Senate?

I tried to cover as many explanations in the poll as I could (to be clear, I don't personally think all of them are true). Apologies if I missed anything obvious.

[wesmoorenerd]

The GCB means nothing this far out from the election, so who cares: to an extent, but the trend matters

Polling aggregates are wrong, most voters actually prefer Republicans: entirely possible but banking on polling error is even more foolish than taking polls at face value

The current close GCB is just a temporary bump for Democrats: pretty clearly false at this point

The unpopularity of Trump specifically is pushing voters towards Democrats: doubtful, I really don't think Trump is directly driving this cycle as much as he's indirectly influencing it through Republican primaries   

The unpopularity of overturning Roe v. Wade is pushing voters towards Democrats: this is the big one, the "Dobbs will fall out of the news cycle quickly" takes are aging quite poorly   

The unpopularity of the Republican Party in general is pushing voters towards Democrats: true but more a consequence of other points here than an independent factor    

Voters are rewarding Democrats for various policies/accomplishments of the 117th Congress: not as impactful as Dobbs I think but makes a difference on the margins and consolidates the D base    

The changing Democratic coalition makes it stronger during mid-terms: a definite factor in turnout but probably not a huge factor in polling    

Democrats have nominated better candidates in the 2022 cycle: definitely part of it, a lot of awful Trump endorsees are defining the GOP's image rn       

Democrats have done a better job with messaging/campaigning: the flipside of the above, an equally if not more important factor -- the GOP doesn't really have many good messengers rn    

Current polling doesn't accurately capture Biden's standing with voters: doubtful, again I'm not banking on polling error

The president's approval rating isn't actually a key driver of mid-terms: nah, it is, but the Republicans have failed to make this a referendum on Biden by exerting power through the SCOTUS   

The economy is boosting Democrats: lol no   

Foreign affairs are boosting Democrats: maybe on the margins but I don't think foreign policy is especially salient at the moment       

Biden's low-key approach has made his approval ratings less of an issue: doubtful, even a low-key pol like Biden is going to polarize at this point in time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GCB means nothing this far out from the election, so who cares: to an extent, but the trend matters

Polling aggregates are wrong, most voters actually prefer Republicans: entirely possible but banking on polling error is even more foolish than taking polls at face value

The current close GCB is just a temporary bump for Democrats: pretty clearly false at this point

The unpopularity of Trump specifically is pushing voters towards Democrats: doubtful, I really don't think Trump is directly driving this cycle as much as he's indirectly influencing it through Republican primaries   

The unpopularity of overturning Roe v. Wade is pushing voters towards Democrats: this is the big one, the "Dobbs will fall out of the news cycle quickly" takes are aging quite poorly   

The unpopularity of the Republican Party in general is pushing voters towards Democrats: true but more a consequence of other points here than an independent factor    

Voters are rewarding Democrats for various policies/accomplishments of the 117th Congress: not as impactful as Dobbs I think but makes a difference on the margins and consolidates the D base    

The changing Democratic coalition makes it stronger during mid-terms: a definite factor in turnout but probably not a huge factor in polling    

Democrats have nominated better candidates in the 2022 cycle: definitely part of it, a lot of awful Trump endorsees are defining the GOP's image rn       

Democrats have done a better job with messaging/campaigning: the flipside of the above, an equally if not more important factor -- the GOP doesn't really have many good messengers rn    

Current polling doesn't accurately capture Biden's standing with voters: doubtful, again I'm not banking on polling error

The president's approval rating isn't actually a key driver of mid-terms: nah, it is, but the Republicans have failed to make this a referendum on Biden by exerting power through the SCOTUS   

The economy is boosting Democrats: lol no   

Foreign affairs are boosting Democrats: maybe on the margins but I don't think foreign policy is especially salient at the moment       

Biden's low-key approach has made his approval ratings less of an issue: doubtful, even a low-key pol like Biden is going to polarize at this point in time

The problem for Rs they don't attract Blk people Trump is a self made Billionaire worth 2.2 B like Oprah but she donates to Ds, she is friends with Barb Walters and Cokie Roberts and Sam Donaldson during the Clinton Obama yrs 90/9 percent goes to Ds because Rs are against Entitlement like Student Loan Discharge but they say we must pull ourselves up from the Bootstraps no Entitlement and Trump got inheritance wealth from his Dad

The only Entitlements that Rs support were stimulus checks at 9 percent unemployment, Trump came out for 2K but after the unemployment got down they want tax cuts for the wealthy

It's not news that red states OH, FL and NC are still competitive even in this Environment due to 15 percent Blk and 26 Latino and Arab and single white moms

Miami, Charlotte and Cleveland are still blue metros in red states

[It’s so Joever]

polling is severely underestimating the GOP.

[Minnesota Mike]

Some of the above. Simple answer is about half the country will never vote for a Republican and about half the country will never vote for a Democrat. How's that for in depth political analysis?

[Unelectable Bystander]

I think that the first two are certainly a factor, but there still seems to be more Dem strength than one would assume given where we are. These are two things I believe are having an effect:

1. Republicans have lost the simple message carried by Youngkin and Jack

Remember that in fall of 2021, many of the current issues facing the incumbent party didn’t even exist yet but VA and NJ had incredible R performances up and down the ballot. Why? Republicans hammered a few key issues, each of which ended up with the same conclusion: Dem/liberal/woke excesses are ruining everything and I am a reasonable person who can clean it up. Covid was itself an issue, but it more so signified that politicians care more about pleasing the elites than getting kids in school. CRT was itself an issue, but it more signified that politicians want to indoctrinate their own beliefs over common sense.

Contrast that to now? Republicans are getting way too deep into the weeds on issues and missing the plot. Fetterman is in his basement. Why should I care? Fetterman is a radical. Why should I care? Economy is bad. Why again is that my senators fault? Election audits. Why are you wasting our time? They need to stop litigating issues and start tying examples of poor outcomes to dem excesses.

This could be accomplished by campaigning on votes for simple measures that most people agree with except for the woke base. Things like Covid, parental school rights, crime, and oil production

2. Biden’s incompetence is causing dems to look more “weak” than “extreme”

Usually a referendum on a president involves putting a check on a runaway administration. But the lack of liberal priorities passed makes it hard to argue that the Dems are out of control extremists. To the Dems credit, they’ve actually stopped acting like complete dictators in the last year and have even portrayed R’s in this way

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

polling is severely underestimating the Dems.

[OSR stands with Israel]

polling is severely underestimating the Dems.

please tell me this is satire

[GeorgiaModerate]

The unpopularity of overturning Roe v. Wade is pushing voters towards Democrats: this is the big one, the "Dobbs will fall out of the news cycle quickly" takes are aging quite poorly

This is indeed the big one, although some of the others might contribute at the margins.  The Dobbs decision was clearly the inflection point for this cycle.  The big question in my mind is whether it will cause a short-term bump (e.g. Watergate) or a long-lasting realignment (e.g. Civil Rights Act).

[All Along The Watchtower]

#1, #5, and in this midterm election specifically, #12.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

#1, #5, and in this midterm election specifically, #12.

Basically my picks as well.

#12 for me is blended in with a bit of "Folks disapproving of Biden doesn't guarantee they're gonna vote GOP"

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

polling is severely underestimating the GOP.

So it just got 3% more off instead of being a legit trend point?

[Brittain33]

polling is severely underestimating the GOP.

How do you square that with the post-Dobbs results in MN-1 and NE-1?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another thing for folks to consider is at this point it's safe to say overall there are more Dem voters nationally than Republican voters. An even GCB isn't really all that great for Dems considering.

[Xing]

A combination of polls underestimating Republicans (not sure by how much, though), and Democrats improving their position a bit over the summer. Of course, regardless of whether or not we think the polls are providing an accurate snapshot, #1 still applies.

[Orser67]

For me, I think Dobbs is clearly a major part of it. But I think that more broadly, the combination of a conservative Supreme Court making handing down major decisions, an unpopular former president frequently in the news (and related lingering concern over Jan. 6), a fairly low-key president, and the 117th Congress possibly hitting the sweet spot in terms of passing a few important bills (thereby avoiding being labeled a do-nothing Congress) that don't seem to be politically toxic has created an environment where voters are more dissatisfied with the GOP than the Democratic Party.

Another thing for folks to consider is at this point it's safe to say overall there are more Dem voters nationally than Republican voters. An even GCB isn't really all that great for Dems considering.

This is a good point to bring up, would've added it to the poll if I had thought of it.

[wbrocks67]

On the Trump front, I think that's an interesting one as well.

I think it was the most recent CBS/YouGov poll, but they had asked the typical "is your vote to support, or against this person, or does it not matter", like how in 2018 it was like 25% to support Trump, 40% against him, etc. etc

The newest poll tested both Biden and Trump and they both had nearly similar numbers on that front, and then in another question of how much that person affected their vote, I think it was too.

The fact that Trump isn't even president anymore and his presence is having nearly the same impact on peoples votes as Biden/the current president is pretty unprecedented as well

[SnowLabrador]

After the overturn of Roe v. Wade, Republican voters are ashamed to admit that they're going to vote Republican in 2022. They still will, though; it never fails.

TLDR: Shy Trump voters.

[MT Treasurer]

1. Republican wave/ripple elections tend to break late, Democratic wave elections don’t — 2010 was not a typical midterm election.

2. The Democratic Party has - with very few exceptions - long had an extremely reliable and engaged voter base, and this has only intensified during the Trump era (the pattern of higher Democratic engagement obviously predates the Biden presidency and has long been observable in inflated/unrepresentative D special election performances), which is why Republicans are very dependent on solid margins with independent voters and actual November (as opposed to special election) turnout from an increasingly less affluent, less suburban, less white-college-educated base. I think the Mar-a-Lago raid will help with Republican voter turnout after the Roe win, however.

3. A toxic combination of incompetent and untested Republican candidates, poor and unfocused Republican messaging, the continued presence of Donald Trump, and an increased focus on the Supreme Court (although the degree of this is overstated) has reduced R potential for gains with those independent voters and arguably turned this election into something of a referendum between the two parties even more so than or at least as much as it is a referendum on the President (who even many Democrats agree is not fit for the office and shouldn’t run in 2024).

4. Polling and media coverage are - again with very few exceptions - systemically biased in favor of Democrats, with both industries arguably having taken on the task of assuaging Democratic concerns and reinforcing the Democratic narrative for several successive election cycles now. 

However, the presence of a few mitigating factors will not suddenly turn what was likely to be a very good year for the GOP (even if not quite a wave) into a Democratic wave. There’s still a difference between an underwhelming Republican victory (which may still result in the GOP taking both chambers of Congress) and an actual Democratic sweep, and there are still just as many if not more data points (e.g. Biden disapproval, direction of the country, and comparative primary turnout) working to the GOP's advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1. Republican wave/ripple elections tend to break late, Democratic wave elections don’t — 2010 was not a typical midterm election.

2. The Democratic Party has - with very few exceptions - long had an extremely reliable and engaged voter base, and this has only intensified during the Trump era (the pattern of higher Democratic engagement obviously predates the Biden presidency and has long been observable in inflated/unrepresentative D special election performances), which is why Republicans are very dependent on solid margins with independent voters and actual November (as opposed to special election) turnout from an increasingly less affluent, less suburban, less white-college-educated base. I think the Mar-a-Lago raid will help with Republican voter turnout after the Roe win, however.

3. A toxic combination of incompetent and untested Republican candidates, poor and unfocused Republican messaging, the continued presence of Donald Trump, and an increased focus on the Supreme Court (although the degree of this is overstated) has reduced R potential for gains with those independent voters and arguably turned this election into something of a referendum between the two parties even more so than or at least as much as it is a referendum on the President (who even many Democrats agree is not fit for the office and shouldn’t run in 2024).

4. Polling and media coverage are - again with very few exceptions - systemically biased in favor of Democrats, with both industries arguably having taken on the task of assuaging Democratic concerns and reinforcing the Democratic narrative for several successive election cycles now. 

However, the presence of a few mitigating factors will not suddenly turn what was likely to be a very good year for the GOP (even if not quite a wave) into a Democratic wave. There’s still a difference between an underwhelming Republican victory (which may still result in the GOP taking both chambers of Congress) and an actual Democratic sweep, and there are still just as many if not more data points (e.g. Biden disapproval, direction of the country, and comparative primary turnout) working to the GOP's advantage.

Lol we won 41H seats in 2018 in Nov not August you are wrong didn't you say Warnock was gonna lose to Perdue because Rs were gonna keep the Sen and now you say Barnes will lose, Barnes is up 7

[wbrocks67]

At this point, given the coverage on Trump 24/7 recently, one could argue that this is turning into as much as a Biden midterm as a Trump midterm...

[xavier110]

- Trump still being in the picture and most GOP nominees fawning over him does not advance their case. They do not act like a political party with policies and an intent to legislate. They act like children. I do think this has turned off a swath of voters. Trump has been able to act that way, but his schtick has never really translated when adopted by others. And now the GOP has a million mini Trumps running across the country…
- That swath of voters repelled by Trump is now folded into the D coalition, making it more affluent and educated. These folks are usually more likely midterm participants.
- Coupled with largely un-serious messaging, the Roe v Wade ruling has consumed the policy conversation, injecting social issues into a conversation Rs don’t want to have. The ruling makes the GOP seem extreme and completely untrustworthy. There is a psychological factor here that I think some underestimate. A lot of folks thought they were play acting abortion opposition and now they have to come to terms with that.

So, I would say it’s a variety of factors, largely driven by their image being shaped by Trump (which has led to disastrous candidates) and social issues. As others have said, 2021 elections were largely about the excesses of Democrats on education and COVID. The midterms so far are more about the excesses of SCOTUS/Trumpers than anything the Ds or Biden have really done. Biden being seen as a one and done type deal by the electorate also may help the Ds…weirdly, the Ds don’t seem on defense that much this election, and I think that’s why we see the numbers we do.

However, I would also agree that the GCB is relatively meaningless and that all of these factors may lead to a more neutral environment in which the Ds still lose critical races.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The unpopularity of overturning Roe v Wade energized the Democratic coalition and caused swing voters to give Democrats serious consideration instead of just ritualistically voting for the opposing party in a midterm.

Democrats made excellent use of the spotlight by stacking up a huge series of policy victories and nominating solid, media-friendly candidates.

Meanwhile the Republicans have been incapable of controlling the narrative because their candidates are dreadful, their messaging is inconsistent and confusing, and they keep having to answer for disgusting, treasonous crap from their party leader.

[SnowLabrador]

Republican voters have become more ashamed of being Republican voters, so they have started to lie to pollsters in greater numbers. But make no mistake, they'll still vote non-Atlas red on Election Day. It never fails.

[Pollster]

I'm surprised nobody here has brought up the extreme disparity in spending. Democrats have massive financial advantages in most races/places and are using them indiscriminately to blow out Republicans on the airwaves earlier than ever.

The risk - of course - is that spending has diminishing returns as time goes on, especially in cheaper media markets. The reward, however, is that lowering your unfavorable numbers after you are nuked on TV at full saturation for months is an absolutely daunting task that you ideally don't want to be spending time doing after Labor Day.

This board in general tends to underplay the importance of spending - there is actually a valid argument to be made that Democrats actually underperformed in certain races/places in 2018 considering how badly they outspent their opponents, and that the smaller gap between Democratic and Republican spending in 2020 is an underrated reason for why the party came back down to earth in the House.