August 2022 - Who wins the war?

[SnowLabrador]

I still believe Russia will win. Once the winter comes around, there will be immense pressure to lift sanctions so that Europeans don't freeze. Also, once the GOP takes control of Congress, they will side with Putin. A shame, too, because if Russia wins the war, World War III has already begun.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I will say this every month.

Either Ukraine will win the war when Russia gets tired of fighting, or Putin will escalate the war in a way that begins World War 3. There is no other likely option.

[SnowLabrador]

I will say this every month.

Either Ukraine will win the war when Russia gets tired of fighting, or Putin will escalate the war in a way that begins World War 3. There is no other likely option.

Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons to win, via destroying that power plant and causing a meltdown. He will do anything to take Ukraine, even if all its people and infrastructure are gone.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I will say this every month.

Either Ukraine will win the war when Russia gets tired of fighting, or Putin will escalate the war in a way that begins World War 3. There is no other likely option.

Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons to win, via destroying that power plant and causing a meltdown. He will do anything to take Ukraine, even if all its people and infrastructure are gone.

At which point, when it becomes clear that he is willing to sacrifice Russia itself to complete his obsession, he will be shot in the head by the nearest general.

This isn't North Korea. Putin isn't Russia and there are a lot of people who have plans for after he's gone.

[PSOL]

Russia will inch towards Kiev piecemeal by piecemeal. However no one is winning this war.

I will say this every month.

Either Ukraine will win the war when Russia gets tired of fighting, or Putin will escalate the war in a way that begins World War 3. There is no other likely option.

Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons to win, via destroying that power plant and causing a meltdown. He will do anything to take Ukraine, even if all its people and infrastructure are gone.

At which point, when it becomes clear that he is willing to sacrifice Russia itself to complete his obsession, he will be shot in the head by the nearest general.

This isn't North Korea. Putin isn't Russia and there are a lot of people who have plans for after he's gone.

The thing is most of the Russian elite, including the “dissident” types in the mold of Navalny —and the middle class, pseudo-obschina leaders—support this war. The only significant forces against the war are EUrophiles who generally are the first to leave and hate their country and the actual-communist bloc who are effectively unable to get off the ground from mass oppression and state-sponsored division. The plan after Putin is continue to maintain the current class relations, same as with the beginning of the current Russian government with Yeltsin.

Say what you want about NK, but at least they know not to start any dumb wars or get to the point where they are trapped in between the axis of China or the US. This is long term strategic planning missing from the Putin administration, who are deeply delusional people whose main tie is some insecure loser who only attracts support from his cringe Serbian fanboys and young Trump republicans.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukraine in the long run, although Putin will have "succeeded" in destroying much of Ukraine's infrastructure and economy in the process, binding a lot of Western ressources for reconstruction (may have been the Russian plan, or at least a version of it, all along).

[CumbrianLefty]

The thing is most of the Russian elite, including the “dissident” types in the mold of Navalny —and the middle class, pseudo-obschina leaders—support this war. The only significant forces against the war are EUrophiles who generally are the first to leave and hate their country and the actual-communist bloc who are effectively unable to get off the ground from mass oppression and state-sponsored division. The plan after Putin is continue to maintain the current class relations, same as with the beginning of the current Russian government with Yeltsin.

Say what you want about NK, but at least they know not to start any dumb wars or get to the point where they are trapped in between the axis of China or the US. This is long term strategic planning missing from the Putin administration, who are deeply delusional people whose main tie is some insecure loser who only attracts support from his cringe Serbian fanboys and young Trump republicans.

But do they actually support *this* war? As opposed to the more general sentiment underlying it that Russia should be "strong and mighty" again.

[PSOL]

The thing is most of the Russian elite, including the “dissident” types in the mold of Navalny —and the middle class, pseudo-obschina leaders—support this war. The only significant forces against the war are EUrophiles who generally are the first to leave and hate their country and the actual-communist bloc who are effectively unable to get off the ground from mass oppression and state-sponsored division. The plan after Putin is continue to maintain the current class relations, same as with the beginning of the current Russian government with Yeltsin.

Say what you want about NK, but at least they know not to start any dumb wars or get to the point where they are trapped in between the axis of China or the US. This is long term strategic planning missing from the Putin administration, who are deeply delusional people whose main tie is some insecure loser who only attracts support from his cringe Serbian fanboys and young Trump republicans.

But do they actually support *this* war? As opposed to the more general sentiment underlying it that Russia should be "strong and mighty" again.

They do support the invasion of Ukraine for going back to one imperial state or another.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Russia will inch towards Kiev piecemeal by piecemeal. However no one is winning this war.

I will say this every month.

Either Ukraine will win the war when Russia gets tired of fighting, or Putin will escalate the war in a way that begins World War 3. There is no other likely option.

Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons to win, via destroying that power plant and causing a meltdown. He will do anything to take Ukraine, even if all its people and infrastructure are gone.

At which point, when it becomes clear that he is willing to sacrifice Russia itself to complete his obsession, he will be shot in the head by the nearest general.

This isn't North Korea. Putin isn't Russia and there are a lot of people who have plans for after he's gone.

The thing is most of the Russian elite, including the “dissident” types in the mold of Navalny —and the middle class, pseudo-obschina leaders—support this war. The only significant forces against the war are EUrophiles who generally are the first to leave and hate their country and the actual-communist bloc who are effectively unable to get off the ground from mass oppression and state-sponsored division. The plan after Putin is continue to maintain the current class relations, same as with the beginning of the current Russian government with Yeltsin.

Say what you want about NK, but at least they know not to start any dumb wars or get to the point where they are trapped in between the axis of China or the US. This is long term strategic planning missing from the Putin administration, who are deeply delusional people whose main tie is some insecure loser who only attracts support from his cringe Serbian fanboys and young Trump republicans.

Yes, but this requires you to be successful. The liberals of Russia were quite happy to support the Tsars' regime in the Russo-Japanese war up until the various military disasters that stacked up during the war, which allowed themselves to frame their opposition to the Tsars autocratic rule as patriotic. If Putin gets a serious black eye - say they lose Kherson for example, then you might see something different from the Liberal Nationalist faction.

[Angel of Death]

Since war is a negative-sum game, you need to add a "neither" option in these polls.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Slowly but surely, Russia loses strength and Ukraine gains strength. Russian morale is low and the soldiers have no motivation to fight. Ukrainian morale is sky high and will stay that way until the war is over. Ukraine is fighting for their right to exist as a country against a fascist aggressor like Nazi Germany in World War 2.

[Coldstream]

I still believe Russia will win. Once the winter comes around, there will be immense pressure to lift sanctions so that Europeans don't freeze. Also, once the GOP takes control of Congress, they will side with Putin. A shame, too, because if Russia wins the war, World War III has already begun.

I can only assume you’ve not been to Europe in this time. Support for Ukraine is near unanimous amongst normal people, in the UK there are Ukrainian flags flying from almost every public building - and it’s not unusual to see one on every street. Britain has quite clearly made the (correct) choice backing Ukraine to the death is the only moral option. From what I’ve seen of Amsterdam & Prague this year they feel the same way - and aside from Hungary I’m fairly sure that’s the position in all of the EU.

If the increasingly unlikely situation where a Ukrainian loss occurs, it will not be due to a lack of support from the EU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I still believe Russia will win. Once the winter comes around, there will be immense pressure to lift sanctions so that Europeans don't freeze. Also, once the GOP takes control of Congress, they will side with Putin. A shame, too, because if Russia wins the war, World War III has already begun.

I can only assume you’ve not been to Europe in this time. Support for Ukraine is near unanimous amongst normal people, in the UK there are Ukrainian flags flying from almost every public building - and it’s not unusual to see one on every street. Britain has quite clearly made the (correct) choice backing Ukraine to the death is the only moral option. From what I’ve seen of Amsterdam & Prague this year they feel the same way - and aside from Hungary I’m fairly sure that’s the position in all of the EU.

If the increasingly unlikely situation where a Ukrainian loss occurs, it will not be due to a lack of support from the EU.

According to German polling data from August 12 (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF-Politbarometer) 71% say that Germany shall continue supporting Ukraine "despite high energy costs", 20% were opposed.

There was at least a two-third majority for it across all party supporters except for the Left (which was split almost 50/50) and the AfD (where only 18% support backing Ukraine despite high energy costs).

In the same poll, 36% were saying that military support for Ukraine should in fact be expanded, 35% were saying that it should be continued at the current levels, and  22% were advocating scaling it back.

65% supported continue using nuclear energy for the time being though (32% against), and 61% said the same with regards to coal (36% against).

58% were also saying that the German government is doing not enough to relieve the population financially.

The bottomline is, if people are freezing in the winter, the German population will blame their government for it, but they apparently won't blame their gvoernment for supporting Ukraine. These are widely seen as two separate issues.

[CumbrianLefty]

And that's because they *are* significantly separate issues.

Anybody who implies otherwise has a clear (pro-Russia) agenda and is not to be trusted.

[CityofSinners]

I would define winning for the Ukraine as being able to exist as a viable independent state. Russia's war goal is to prevent that.
Under that definition Ukraine is winning.

[_.]

Neither wins, but I think Russia eventually will be able to successfully achieve its secondary objective, which is blocking off Ukraine from the Black Sea. No matter how long this takes, I think this is something that will eventually happen.

Ukraine, no matter how you look at it, is not going to be able to successfully retain all of its territory, let alone these dream ideas of getting back Crimea. In fact, I'm pretty sure that eventually the entire Donbass will be under Russian control.

So overall, I think Russia is in a better position than Ukraine.

[CumbrianLefty]

We keep being told that Russia will accomplish this or that "eventually", despite their lack of progress so far. The onus is as a rule more on the invader to get relatively rapid results in this sort of conflict.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Previously, I was following this war quite closely. I've been more distracted since. If I have to guess, I think Russia will net benefit from this war in the long term, though with significant downsides, and Ukraine will lose on net. So I'm selecting Russia in this poll, even though its initial war aims were not achieved.

[Hindsight was 2020]

We keep being told that Russia will accomplish this or that "eventually", despite their lack of progress so far. The onus is as a rule more on the invader to get relatively rapid results in this sort of conflict.

Case in point the only front Russia can point to as a success is the Donbas which has only saw minimal gains for them

[NewYorkExpress]

I still think eventually Russia will win, but winning is going to cost them everything in the end.

There is no way, Europe and the U.S doesn't react to Ukraine's fall, either by breaking out the nukes or by a ground invasion of Russia via Poland and the Baltic States.

[CumbrianLefty]

I still think eventually Russia will win

At this point, statements of this nature are almost entirely an article of faith. I think there is a feeling amongst some that they "have" to ultimately win because they are "big and strong".

Despite the many counter examples throughout history.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I still think eventually Russia will win

At this point, statements of this nature are almost entirely an article of faith.

I wouldn't go this far unless and until winter comes and the most acute gas/heating issues with it. European "allies" may become willing and be able to shift the balance in Russia's favour at that point.

Alternatively, one could argue that Russia - if it starts to lose lots more territory in net terms - will mobilise. I find this increasingly unlikely, but one can make a case for it happening.

Personally, I think Angel of Death has it right. Potential winners include China, the USA and arms dealers - but probably not Ukraine or Russia. Putin may well succeed in one of his personal objectives - to convince Russians that a better life isn't possible by damaging Ukraine and sowing discord between the neighbouring peoples, but rebuilding Ukraine after the war could mitigate parts of that.

[CumbrianLefty]

I still think eventually Russia will win

At this point, statements of this nature are almost entirely an article of faith.

I wouldn't go this far unless and until winter comes and the most acute gas/heating issues with it. European "allies" may become willing and be able to shift the balance in Russia's favour at that point.

I think that is rather a big "may", not least because many seem to be doing more to prepare for the winter than the UK is. Putin's blackmail may fall short here as it already has in other ways.