My first timeline: An Unexpected Realignment

[Xing]

I’ve never done a TL before, so I thought I’d give it a try. Not going to give away exactly what the realignment is, but it will begin in January 2023, after Republicans captured both chambers of Congress in the midterms, winning 237 House seats, 52 Senate seats, flipping AZ, GA, and NV while losing PA.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Looking forward to It !!

[Xing]

January 21, 2023:

BREAKING: Biden will not seek second term

Washington DC - On Saturday afternoon, President Biden shocked many political observers by making an impromptu announcement that he would not seek re-election in 2024. Citing concerns of health and a desire to spend more time with his family, the President informed a small crowd of reporters directly outside of the White House that it was not in his best interests to run for a second term. With a sobering tone, he described his decision as “extremely difficult”, and one that he did not make lightly.

“The past two years have been incredible, and I’m proud of what my administration has managed to accomplish, given the difficult circumstances,” explained Biden. “However, health must always come first. I make this decision with a heavy heart, but I know it is the right one.”

Biden vowed to spend the final two years of his presidency working toward greater access to affordable healthcare, greater funding for infrastructure, addressing climate change, immigration reform, and criminal justice reform. He did not take any further questions from reporters after making his remarks.

Reactions to Biden’s surprising announcement, which came just months after vowing to run for re-election. Many Democratic leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi claimed to respect President Biden’s decision, while others, such as Speaker Kevin McCarthy, described his decision as “cowardly.”

“The President doesn’t want to accept that the voters clearly spoke loud and clear last November. Instead of realizing that his party’s far-left agenda isn’t what people want and changing course, he’s protecting himself from the will of the people. It’s quite cowardly, if you ask me.”

Former President Donald Trump had even harsher words for the President.

“Sleepy Joe is running away with his tail in between his legs because he knows he’s a failure. He knows that I would beat him this time! By the way, it would be the second time I would beat him because he never truly won in the first place. Pathetic!”

Vice President Harris declined to comment on President Biden’s remarks or on whether or not she would run for President in 2024.

[Xing]

Beginning of the cycle

January 24, 2023:

Following Biden’s announcement that he would not seek a second term, Democratic leaders pressure Vice President Harris to announce her candidacy, though she refrains from making any statement. Trump claims that he will run again, though does not officially launch his campaign. Meanwhile, New Hampshire is confirmed as the first state to hold a Democratic contest in 2024, while Iowa is pushed to May.

Gallup poll:

Do you approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president?
Approve 38%
Disapprove 55%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party?
Favorable 40%
Unfavorable 54%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party?
Favorable 37%
Unfavorable 56%

January 25, 2023:
Sabato’s Crystal Ball releases preliminary 2024 ratings for President and Senate

President:
Safe D - CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, ME-01, MA, MD, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D - CO, ME, NM, VA
Lean D - MN, NE-02, NH
Toss-Up - AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI
Lean R - FL, ME-02, NC
Likely R - AK, OH, TX
Safe R - AL, AR, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NE-01, NE-03, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

[b]Senate/b]
Safe D - CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, NY, RI, VT, WA
Likely D - ME, MN, NJ, NM, VA
Lean D - AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI
Toss-Up - MT, OH
Lean R - FL, TX, WV
Likely R - MO
Safe R - IN, MS, NE, ND, TN, UT, WY

January 27, 2023:
As several potential candidates remain quiet about their intentions, Former Representative Madison Cawthorn launches an exploratory committee for President, despite not meeting the age requirement. He vows to garner enough support for legislation to lower the minimum age to run for president.

January 31, 2023:
Former Representative Liz Cheney becomes the next to launch an exploratory committee.

February 2, 2023:
Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez teases a presidential run, though does not officially form an exploratory committee, claiming that with Biden out of the race “who knows what will happen.”

February 3, 2023:
Senator Kirsten Sinema, amid several polls suggesting she would lose a potential primary in the Senate race, announces that she will not run for re-election, though does not specifically state whether or not she will run for president.

February 5, 2023:
Senator Bernie Sanders claims he will run for re-election to the Senate and will not run for president again.

February 8, 2023:
Governor Ron DeSantis states that he is “weighing his options” for 2024, then proceeds to say that Former President Donald Trump would not be the “best candidate” for Republicans. Trump claims that DeSantis would never have become Governor without his help and that he is the only Republican who can win in 2024.

Biden’s administration continues in gridlock, while the 2024 race still remains quiet for another couple of weeks. To be continued…

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Chad Madison Cawthorn running for President in 2024 despite not being eligible until 2030.

[Xing]

A few potential primary polls:

Democrats (fav/unfav):
Harris 26% (63/30)
Ocasio Cortez 11% (52/22)
Fetterman 8% (43/7)
Newsom 8% (35/9)
Buttigieg 7% (45/17)
Brown 5% (31/5)
Sinema 3% (16/44)
Other/Not sure 32%

Republicans (fav/unfav):
Trump 40% (78/18)
DeSantis 24% (53/9)
Youngkin 9% (38/7)
T. Scott 7% (33/6)
Haley 3% (31/22)
L. Cheney 1% (21/56)
Other/Not sure 16%

[Xing]

Chad Madison Cawthorn running for President in 2024 despite not being eligible until 2030.

This part is going to be fun, trust me.

[BigVic]

Watched

[Xing]

First official candidates

February 11, 2023:
Madison Cawthorn officially launches campaign for president. The New Hampshire Board of Elections becomes the first of many to confirm that Cawthorn will not be eligible for the ballot.

February 12, 2023:
Cawthorn files a lawsuit against the New Hampshire and South Carolina Board of Elections. Representative Lauren Boebert endorses Cawthorn and proposes constitutional amendment lowering the minimum age for eligibility to run for President to 28.

February 14, 2023:
Gas prices fall below $4.50 for the first time in over a year. The Democratic Party publicly attributes this to the Inflation Reduction Act, while Republicans attribute it to their blocking of Biden’s spending bills.

February 15, 2023:
Governor Gavin Newsom forms an exploratory committee, claims his top focus will be climate change.

BREAKING NEWS: Former President Donald Trump was hospitalized after heart attack
Palm Beach, FL - Former President Donald Trump was rushed to the hospital after suffering a heart attack at Mar-A-Lago on Wednesday afternoon. According to the hospital, they were successful in stabilizing him upon arrival, though his situation remains serious.

“The former president is fortunate he was able to receive medical attention quickly,” explained Doctor Raymond Burns, who attended him. “However, he’s not quite out of the woods yet. We will need to monitor him over the next several days to ensure that he shows clear signs of improvement.”

Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, claimed to be optimistic about her father’s situation.

“My dad is strong, I know he’ll come out of this stronger than ever,” Ivanka told reporters briefly in the airport before leaving for her flight to Florida.

Several Congressional Republicans expressed high concern for Trump’s health, pleading Americans to pray for his health and his family. Democrats in Washington we’re more subdued, and simply stated that they wished Trump a speedy recovery.

February 17, 2023:
Former President Donald Trump makes first public statement since heart attack. He claims to be “feeling great”, and states that “it was no big deal, I’ll be out of here in no time.” While Republicans in Washington claim to be overjoyed, there are rumors of private concerns that Trump might not be in the best condition to run for president, and yet might do so anyway.

February 18, 2023:
President Biden wishes his former rival good health in public statement:

“Donald and I have had our differences, but in these kinds of situations, it’s important not to engage in schaden-schadenfreude. I wish him great health and a speedy recovery. Godspeed, Donald.”

February 20, 2023:
Governor Ron DeSantis passes Educational Reform Act (ERA) in the state of Florida. The bill, widely supported by Republicans and denounced by Democrats, prohibits usage of terms such as “critical race theory”, “opportunity gap”, “anti-racism”, and other terms the governor deemed “anti-American.” The bill also gives school districts the power to put teachers on probation or temporary leave for “indoctrination.” Democrats describe the act as “dystopian and authoritarian”, while Republicans claim that it brings “much needed changes” to “leftist education system.”

Donald Trump is released from the hospital, waves to supporters and claims to be “stronger than ever.”

February 22, 2023:
Vice President Harris claims that she is “probably” going to run for president.

February 23, 2023:
Multiple rumored presidential candidates rule out presidential run. Senator John Fetterman states that his focus is the Senate and that he is “definitely not” going to run for president. Senator Tim Scott also confirms that he will not run for president. Senator Elizabeth Warren also rules out a run.

February 25, 2023:
Senator Ted Cruz and Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley both launch exploratory committees.

February 26, 2023:
Mark Zuckerberg announces that he will run for president as an Independent.

Potential presidential match-up polls (RV)
Harris 47%
Trump 47%

DeSantis 46%
Harris 43%

Youngkin 47%
Harris 41%

Harris 45%
Cruz 43%

Harris 45%
Haley 44%

Harris 49%
Cawthorn 38%

Newsom 49%
Trump 43%

Newsom 46%
DeSantis 45%

Youngkin 47%
Newsom 45%

Newsom 47%
Cruz 42%

Newsom 46%
Haley 44%

Newsom 53%
Cawthorn 35%

Favorability (RV):
Biden (42/55)
Harris (39/53)
Trump (41/57)
DeSantis (40/43)
Youngkin (41/34)
Cruz (35/45)
Newsom (37/41)
Haley (32/50)
Cawthorn (23/55)

February 28, 2023:
Vice President Kamala Harris announces that she is running for president. Her campaign theme is “more opportunities for all Americans.”

Her announcement is followed by a flurry of endorsements, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Minority Whip Jim Clyburn, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and DNC chair Jaime Harrison.

March 2, 2023:
Rumors that Trump is still frail grow as the former president makes few public appearances.

Former Representative Liz Cheney and Senator Ted Cruz both launch presidential campaigns. Cruz focuses on “radical leftism in education”, while Cheney promises to bring “common sense” back to Washington.

March 3, 2023:
Senator Sherrod Brown announces that he will seek re-election instead of running for president.

March 5, 2023:
Governor Gavin Newsom officially launches presidential campaign.

Senator Josh Hawley forms exploratory committee.

BREAKING: Donald Trump will not run for president again

Palm Beach, FL - Former President Donald Trump stunned many by announcing that he would not run another campaign for president. Trump recovered from a heart attack just weeks ago, and has made no public appearances since, leading many to believe that his health could be more fragile than he was willing to admit. In a statement he released, he denied that his health was a factor in his decision, and instead insisted that it was because the Democrats would not accept the results if he won.

“The corrupt radical Democrats already stole one election, who’s to say they won’t do it again? I’ll find better ways of making America great.”

Trump also rejected the idea that his poor polling numbers contributed to his decision.

Trump’s absence from the presidential race opens up the possibility of a crowded, expensive primary for Republicans. Several candidates, such as Senators Cruz and Hawley have already made their intention to run clear, though more are rumored to be considering a run. Many Democrats expressed relief at the news that Trump would not run, though were careful not to wish the former president poor health.

“It’s a good day for our nation,” commented House Minority Leader Pelosi. “I hope that Donald Trump continues to recover and remains out of politics.”

March 7, 2023:
Doug Mastriano, who unsuccessfully ran against Pennsylvania’s now-Governor Josh Shapiro, forms an exploratory committee.

Buttigieg officially launches his presidential campaign.

With Sanders, Warren, Fetterman, and Brown out of the presidential race, many of the left grow anxious for Ocasio Cortez to run.

[Xing]

Yet more candidates:

March 8, 2023:
After much speculation, Governor Ron DeSantis launches his presidential campaign. In his announcement, he focuses on crime, education, and regulation, and claims that as president, he will launch an investigation of Dr. Fauci, as well as the CDC. He also touts the ERA as "a much needed reset for public education." He quickly picks up several endorsements, including those of Governors Michels, Governor Dixon, and Governor Lake. Several Florida representatives also endorse him. Many news outlets declare him the "first serious candidate", and label him as the frontrunner for the nomination. His announcement video is called out by several prominent Democrats, including Vice President Harris as "divisive" and "not representative of the America I believe in."

March 9, 2023:
In response to DeSantis's announcement, Senator Marco Rubio announces that he will not run for president, and instead will endorse DeSantis.

Former Senator Raphael Warnock rules out a presidential run, though leaves the door open for a rematch in 2028.

March 15, 2023:
DeSantis announces raising almost $1 Million within the first week of his announcement. Former Vice President Mike Pence endorses him.

Meanwhile, presidential candidates Cruz and Hawley criticize DeSantis for dodging a question about the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and question his loyalty to the right.

March 17, 2023:
Mark Zuckerburg announces that he will register as a Democrat and run in the Democratic primaries.

Senator Amy Klobuchar announces that she will form an exploratory committee to run for president and will not seek re-election to the Senate.

March 18, 2023:
President Biden praises Vice President Harris saying that he is "proud of having the honor of working with her", though does not explicitly endorse her run for president.

Senator Rick Scott launches an exploratory committee.

Former Governor Whitmer rules out a presidential run, as does Senator Michael Bennet.

Doug Mastriano officially launches his campaign for president.

March 20, 2023:
A tax reform bill, which would reduce the federal income tax, passes the House 229-206, and the Senate 53-47, though Biden promises to veto it.

March 21, 2023:
Governor Glenn Youngkin forms an exploratory committee, as does Representative Joe Kent.

March 24, 2023:
Rick Scott officially launches his campaign, while Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, much to the joy of many on the left, forms an exploratory committee.

March 27, 2023:
Klobuchar launches her campaign for president.

March 30, 2023:
Youngkin and Ocasio Cortez launch their campaigns for president.

March 31, 2023:
Kent launches his campaign for president.

Primary polling:

Democratic primary:
Harris 34%
Ocasio Cortez 24%
Buttigieg 12%
Newsom 7%
Klobuchar 4%
Zuckerberg 1%
Other/Not sure 18%

Republican primary:
DeSantis 37%
Cruz 18%
Youngkin 10%
Hawley 8%
Scott 6%
Mastrino 4%
Cawthorn 1%
Cheney 1%
Kent 1%
Other/Not sure 14%

[2016]

Hilarious from Ted Cruz questioning DeSantis loyalty to right. Crawl back into your TX Basement Ted!