Special Election Feb 6th on Long Island for State Senate 7th district

[Smash255]

Their is a Special election in new York's 7th Senate district.  Republican State Senator who was first elected in 1997 (and sered 8 years in the Assembly prior to that) was named Deputy Secretary for Public Security by Spitzer.  the seat is currently vacant with the GOP holding a 33-28 advantage.

Running for the seat is Nassau county Legis Craig Johnsom- D Port Washington (Johnson was the first Nassau Dem to support Spitzer in the Primary, however Suozzi is campaigning with him) and Nassau county Clerk Maureen O'Connell.  The Democrats currently hold a one seat advantage in the Nassau County Legislature.  A Johnson victory I believe would force a Special Election for his seat until the November General, with the legis majority hanging in the balance.  It is possible there could be a Suozzi appointment, though I think it would be a Special Election.  Johnson's LD is fairly Democratic, so a Democrat would likely win a special election.  O'Connell is the only Republican  elected county wide and a victory for her would likely result in a Dem pickup there.

Overall this looks like a Dem pickup.  Johnson is a bit more well known in the area, despite his LD covering about 25% of the state senate district, and has the support of Spitzer who will be announcing his support tomorrow/ (later this morning) from the area. T he district is  in northwest Nassau county, encompassing all of the Town of North Hempstead as well as northwest & some notherrn portions of the Town of Hempsted and a small portion of the Town of Oyster Bay.  The Dems also have voter registration advantage in the district, and is the only state senate district which the Dems have the registration advantage (though district 9 is headed that way with the GOP holding a .5% registration advantage).  The registration is 37.79% Dem, 34.74% GOP, 27.47% Ind/ 3rd.  While not as large as an advantage as something like that would have on the national level, the advantage is really larger than that as Nassau Reps cross party lines more than Dems, and Independents tend to vote Dem.

Looks very much like a Dem pickup.  If I were to take a guess now I would say Johnson 55-45

[minionofmidas]

The Dems also have voter registration advantage in the district, and is the only state senate district which the Dems have the registration advantage (though district 9 is headed that way with the GOP holding a .5% registration advantage). 

I assume that's only on Long Island? Or only among GOP held districts?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Dems also have voter registration advantage in the district, and is the only state senate district which the Dems have the registration advantage (though district 9 is headed that way with the GOP holding a .5% registration advantage). 

I assume that's only on Long Island? Or only among GOP held districts?

It would have to be the first one, as those Queens districts the GOP hold have Democratic registration advantages. So did the Yonkers district the GOP lost last year.

[Smash255]

The Dems also have voter registration advantage in the district, and is the only state senate district which the Dems have the registration advantage (though district 9 is headed that way with the GOP holding a .5% registration advantage).

I assume that's only on Long Island? Or only among GOP held districts?

Oops should have made it clearer.  Only Long Island State Senate District with the Dem registration advantage. 

[Smash255]

Other facts about the Senate district
71.1% White
9.5% African American
9.9% Hispanic
9.2 % Asian
2.6% Mixed

Income as of 1999
Median Household Income $75,955
Mean Household Income  $104,991
Per Capita Income $37,105

24.7% foreign born

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like a strange district; an extremely rich lily-white area, and an area with a big minority population (which presumably accouts for the registration advantage).

[Smash255]

Looks like a strange district; an extremely rich lily-white area, and an area with a big minority population (which presumably accouts for the registration advantage).

Not exactly true.  Overall the area has probably more racially diverse communities than any other areas of Long Island.  Even some of the very wealthy areas (which are some of the wealthiet area in LI & the country as a whole) are more diverse than other more middle class areas of Long Island. 

[Verily]

Looks like a strange district; an extremely rich lily-white area, and an area with a big minority population (which presumably accouts for the registration advantage).

71.1% is below the national white population in the US (80.4%). The area isn't particularly wealthy. It's wealthy for a district somewhere else (about at the top 15%), but, for Long Island, that's at best average. (LI is an expensive place to live.) OTOH, the high Asian population outside of a major city speaks to a mostly middle class to upper-middle class district, probably heavy with commuters. (Not that either of those should be surprising in inner Long Island.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like a strange district; an extremely rich lily-white area, and an area with a big minority population (which presumably accouts for the registration advantage).

71.1% is below the national white population in the US (80.4%). The area isn't particularly wealthy. It's wealthy for a district somewhere else (about at the top 15%), but, for Long Island, that's at best average. (LI is an expensive place to live.) OTOH, the high Asian population outside of a major city speaks to a mostly middle class to upper-middle class district, probably heavy with commuters. (Not that either of those should be surprising in inner Long Island.)

My comments weren't about the district as a whole, but the two main parts of it (fairdata again).

I don't really understand why these areas have been paired with each other; makes no sense. Gerrymandering maybe?

[Smash255]

Looks like a strange district; an extremely rich lily-white area, and an area with a big minority population (which presumably accouts for the registration advantage).

71.1% is below the national white population in the US (80.4%). The area isn't particularly wealthy. It's wealthy for a district somewhere else (about at the top 15%), but, for Long Island, that's at best average. (LI is an expensive place to live.) OTOH, the high Asian population outside of a major city speaks to a mostly middle class to upper-middle class district, probably heavy with commuters. (Not that either of those should be surprising in inner Long Island.)

My comments weren't about the district as a whole, but the two main parts of it (fairdata again).

I don't really understand why these areas have been paired with each other; makes no sense. Gerrymandering maybe?

Not gerrymandering.  The district encompasses all of the Town of North Hempstead (which makes up for 3/4 of the district) and some bordering areas of the Town of hempstead (Franklin Square, Floral park and Elmont) and Town of Oyster Bay (western portions of Hicksville).  No real gerrymandering just is made up of all of one town and some bordering areas of other towns.

[Smash255]

http://latfor.state.ny.us/maps/propsen/fs007.pdf

map to the district, tried to post it on the page, but wouldn't work

* notice the african american & Asian %'s are lower than what is stated above, the % on the link shows African American only, and Asian only.  What I mentioned above includes African Americans and Asians who are mixed.

[Verily]

Are there really enough people of mixed African and Asian descent for that to make a difference?

Edit: Ah, never mind, you meant people who were half-European, half-Asian, or half-European, half-African.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can't believe the Republicans still do have the NY Senate. of course population shifts should put an end to that after redistricting if not before then.

[ag]

I can't believe the Republicans still do have the NY Senate. of course population shifts should put an end to that after redistricting if not before then.

Traditionally, NY Senate is gerrymandered to have the Republican majority and the House is likewise gerrymandered for a Democratic majority. In addition to gerrymander, there are powerfull incentives for voters to be represented by a majority party member in each chamber, since minority legislators rank somewhat below the part-time members of the Capitol cleaning staff in their influence on legislative process (though, for that member, rank-and-file majority members are not too much more powerful - another reason not to vote out incumbents).

Of course, even in these conditions Dems have been gradually approaching parity in the Senate, while their dominance in the House has grown to staggering proportions. Still, if Reps survive as a majority party in the Senate till the redistricting, they might be able to prolong their majority by a few more electoral cycles through another gerrymander.

This is why this special election is so important - if Dems manage to get this seat, they'd need only 2 more seats at the next election to tie the Senate and another seat for the full control, which might actually be doable, giving one party the full control of the state for the first time in eons. In addition, if Dems are in full legislative control at the next redistricting, they may well make sure that the 2 Congressional seats that NY looses come out of the paltry 6 that Republicans still hold in New York.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The NY State Senate seats vary by up to 10% in population, in such a manner that favors the Republicans. In addition, prisons are used for additional population for gerrymandering, they can't vote, but they do count towards the population where the prison is. And of course incumbency favors the Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My NY redistricting plan:

-Carve up Reynolds' district. Add parts to the neighboring Democratic districts and most of it to Kuhl's. Kuhl and Reynolds have a primary battle.
-Try to put Arcuri and Walsh in the same district, in a district that favors Arcuri by removing the rural parts west of Syracuse and dumping some of the more Republican parts of Arcuri's current district into McHugh's.

Then also try to draw King's new district in a way that he's much more vulnerable. That could do away with three Republicans.

[Smash255]

My NY redistricting plan:

-Carve up Reynolds' district. Add parts to the neighboring Democratic districts and most of it to Kuhl's. Kuhl and Reynolds have a primary battle.
-Try to put Arcuri and Walsh in the same district, in a district that favors Arcuri by removing the rural parts west of Syracuse and dumping some of the more Republican parts of Arcuri's current district into McHugh's.

Then also try to draw King's new district in a way that he's much more vulnerable. That could do away with three Republicans.

The last re-districting which was when Steve Israel was a freshman rep, King & Israel swapped areas to make each others district safer.  Israel's district extended into east central Nassau County, into some heavily jewish neighborhoods.  This area is 45.11% Dem 28.47% GOP, 26.42% Ind/ 3rd, it went to israel by a 78-22 margin (he won overall 70-30).  King's district also expaned to the south shore in western Suffolk County.  fairly GOP area, 41.17% GOP, 25.76% Dem. 33.07% Ind/ 3rd.

Because of population a shift into Suffolk for the 3rd was something that was going to happen anway.  One thing that could be done is giving Israel's portion in Nassau County back to King, and taking away areas of King's portion in Suffolk.  Making the district not go out as far east into Suffolk, but go a bit further north to include the minority & Dem areas there were left into Israel's district such as N Amityville, north sections of Copaigue.  Another thing that could be done is changing the area where King's district pops into Suffolk.  Instead of thee immediate south shore in king's district, put that in Israel's district, put N amityville, Northern Copaigue, Wyandanch, Wheatley Heights and portions of deer park into King's district. 

Two other alternatives revolve around putting them up against each other.  One would be to keep the 2nd district in a small part of Nassau, but move it to the south shore of Nassau to include areas such as Massapequa (where I live) Seaford 9where King lives) and Wantagh.  No way in hell would King be able to beat Israel in a fairly Democratic district, and it makes the 3rd district more Dem to help in an open seat (though in an open seat with the way it currently is, the Dems would have a good chance despite the registration advantage)

Another thing to do would be to move the Suffolk portion of the 3rd district from the south shore to further norther, include the Huntington, Huntington Station & Dix Hills area (where Israel is).  The district still would have a GOP lean, but would be  pretty easy victory for Israel, and would create an open race in a Dem district. 

Another option which might need to happen anyway because o NY losing some CD's, is too push King's district further west and into MCCarthy's district.  try to move some of the heavily minority and Democratic areas into King's district such as hempstead, uniondale, Roosevelt and Freeport.  As it is King's district is the whitest district on LI.

[Smash255]

Article in Newsday on the race

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http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/politics/ny-lisena205060189jan20,0,1646580.story?coll=ny-lipolitics-headlines

[© tweed]

Was the real reason that Spitzer appointed the Republican that he wanted to try to whittle away another senate seat from the small majority?

[Smash255]

Was the real reason that Spitzer appointed the Republican that he wanted to try to whittle away another senate seat from the small majority?

I wouldn't say that it was the only or even key reason, but it may have played a factor.  Balboni was a pretty much moderate Republican (have to be in that district) who has worked quite a bit across party lines in the past and worked in the State Senate on security issues, so it wasn't like Spitzer was picking someone unqualified for the position in order to get the seat or anything like that.  Balboni does have the credentials.

Saw a television ad for Johnson earlier in which featured Spitzer endorsing him and saying he is the right man for the job.

[Smash255]

Article in today's Newsday

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http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/politics/ny-lisena285071595jan29,0,3280399.story?coll=ny-lipolitics-headlines

[Verily]

Being "Robin" to a "Batman" governor with a net approval rating of +65 can't be a disadvantage...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If the Democrats can win this race, they'll have a chance at the State Senate before the 2012 redistricting.

[Smash255]

Audit could cause O'Connell more problems

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http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-staudi0130,0,7809313.story?coll=ny-top-headlines

[Deano963]

Bump - What's going on here?